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Am I the only one who is perplexed by the prices here?
Not according to the following, IP:
Nicholls runners odds on in last 5 years from Adrian Massey.
Bets… Wins… S/R… Win%SP
446… 264… 59.2%… 92.7%2009
77… 45… 58.4%… 88.9%
Less than 1/2 5 years
144… 97… 67.4%… 87.6%
2009
30… 21… 70.0%… 91.0%
I’m going to throw a throwaway £20 on Katchit each way, hopefully he may spark into life and provide me some festive booze. Took 39’s on him. Here’s hoping anyway.
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Oh my! someone just took 50 for 50 quid and he’s 44 to 22 quid just now……wish I had a tenner for everytime i’ve done that on Betfair over the past month
Wouldn’t be so sure you are throwing money away Red. He’ll strip a lot fitter than he did last time and Alan King did say he looked more like his old self a couple of weeks ago. He’s had his prep run, stayed on so well in the Champion Hurdle when he won it and was gaining on them hand over fist in the renewal he might just excel over this trip
First time at 3 miles anything can happen if he is back to his best who knows?
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Am I the only one who is perplexed by the prices here?
Not according to the following, IP:
I don’t think there’s been that much Hype most people are saying Big Bucks is unbeatable. For me the reason Diamond Harry is shorter than Karabak is he is still a potential superstar having run only one race below par in his life.
So the punters can bet with some hope of him beating Big Bucks. Karabak on the other hand looks fully exposed, doesn’t have the “What could be” look about him that Diamond Harry has and there’s very little to encourage anyone to back him to win.
If I was the trainer I might be saying the same thing and not building up the owners hope. Then if he wins I’m a genius and if he gets beat the owner was half expecting it anyway. Deep down I think your man is more hopeful than he is letting on……who wouldn’t be? he’s a cracking horse and the only one I can see troubling Big Bucks.
Incidentally if Big Bucks absolutely destroys him he’ll end up the shortest price fav at Cheltenham since Arkle won the 1967 Gold Cup if he turns up fit and well…..damned if I can see anything else that can give him a race never mind beat him.
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Love your logic, Fist – both horses have had 8 races, yet only one of them is ‘exposed’.
Tell you what, the OH has Diamond Harry as 12lbs superior to Karabak – let’s see how he feels after Saturday?Nicholls runners odds on in last 5 years from Adrian Massey.
Bets… Wins… S/R… Win%SP
446… 264… 59.2%… 92.7%2009
77… 45… 58.4%… 88.9%
Less than 1/2 5 years
144… 97… 67.4%… 87.6%
2009
30… 21… 70.0%… 91.0%
tb,call me stupid,but does the 446 represent total runners and 264 mean thats how many have won? Does that mean he has had 180 odds on losers then?
I’m sure Fist meant the 66 Gold Cup, but hey, he is getting very, very, very old.
As for Big Buck’s v Diamond Harry on saturday – well, it is a two horse race when you think about it….
and I just have this image of Diamond Harry swinging jauntily off the bridle for two miles or so, with big Buck’s lopping along likewise – until Ruby Walsh decides it’s time to start applying a bit more pressure turning as they turn for home – at which point DH’s ( and his jockey’s ) reslove is tested to the full.
The question then being, is Diamomd H imbued with the same battling qualities as BB’s ?
I have my doubts.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
182 losses Gord @ 40.8%
Excellent stuff tb,thanks for that!Almost half of P,Nicholls odds on shots get beat!Shocking stuff,almost as bad as my Maths!
Love your logic, Fist – both horses have had 8 races, yet only one of them is ‘exposed’.
Tell you what, the OH has Diamond Harry as 12lbs superior to Karabak – let’s see how he feels after Saturday?Must be a time of year for Miracles when I can see FISTS point but he has one here I think. They may have both run 8 times but only one of those horses has been beaten 5 times….and on his last 3 outings.
SHL
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Yeah, well – Fist does have some idea of what he’s talking about.
Two small interest bets on Fair Along and Whiteoak @43’s and 37’s respectively.
Token reasons really: Fair Along looked as good as ever and wins right handed, as does Whiteoak, but most of all, just interest and a bit of greed.
- Total Posts 17716
Love your logic, Fist – both horses have had 8 races, yet only one of them is ‘exposed’.
Tell you what, the OH has Diamond Harry as 12lbs superior to Karabak – let’s see how he feels after Saturday?I’ll put it to you another way. If you had the choice to buy one of them at the same price which would you buy? and why?
I’m sure you don’t mind if I help you answer
I think most people think Diamond Harry had gone to the well once too often last season. He looked like he had been at his peak from day one and there must be a good chance he was over the top at Cheltenham.
Karabak had an easier run up, he was easily beaten by Mad Max first time up, won 2 fairly moderate races before going to Cheltenham. He ran a great race that day but when he went to Aintree he got stuffed over 3 miles,which could put a question mark over his Cheltenham run. He has been stuffed again by Zaynar. He didn’t look like he needed it he just was made to look ordinary by a better horse. Nothing that would give anyone great confidence about the coming season
Ian Williams on the other side of the fence gives it "I think he’ll run well and could win but will come on for the race and Diamond Harry says stuff that and wins doing hand stands. He looked better than ever.
I think I like Harry best
P.S. The latest going report is just coming through from my man on the ground. He says it’s WHITE with a green patches in places
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