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Seeing as there are one or two assessments of this race in Trends, I thought it might be best placed to analyse here.
As I’ve already raised, my two at the moment are CHAPOTURGEON and RAZOR ROYALE.
I rarely have ante post bets as I’m more inclined to base my selections on going a lot, but I have had a few quid at a good price on Chapoturgeon, judged on his progressive profile, and was going well enough before unseating in the Paddy Power.
My other ante post bet is on Razor Royale who came back to form with a bang at Cheltenham last month, and I don’t think that’s the ceiling of his ability as his 2007 hurdles form is excellent; his new mark is certainly within reach IMO – If his jumping holds up in this competitive field he stands a chance at his favourite course. It’s about time that Twisty has his first big winner of the season!
Fine assessment there Rich!If "Atouchbetweenacara" even goes off favourite, my names numpty!The horse has No chance!
You won’t be surprised, TAPK, but I think Atouchbetweenacara has a great chance myself.
I can’t believe the horse is favourite, especially at 5/1. Tim Vaughan has recently obtained the horse and although he is a decent up and coming trainer, he doesnt have big race winners – this horse may have routed some moderate types in a below average Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time such as Private Be and Mr Boo, but prior to that was beaten by a 116 rated horse in Malko de Beaumont, and fell the race before that at Kempton. He looks progressive in some respect, but Not a worthy favourite in the slightest for me.
Those two horses mentioned apart, an eachway bet looks to be Pomme Tiepy, who came 5th in the Irish Grand National last April, and although this trip is very much the minimum for her, she has stamina assured. She is still relatively unexposed and if her jumping holds up, then 33/1 looks appealing if she goes to post.
I wouldn’t discount Tarotino either at 16/1. Unsuited in the PP last time on soft ground, if getting better ground this time around, he could be a completely different proposition. Unexposed also, and although the King yard isnt firing yet by its usual standards, it has started to turn the corner and Tarotino shouldnt be underestimated.
He was a blatant non-stayer in the Tommy Whittle, rich1985, and the fall apart, he looked an assured jumper for a novice last season.
His run against Master Medic looks pretty handy in hindsight, and his win at the April meeting stamped him as a progressive horse. The opposition might not have been up to a great deal that day, but he beat them pointless, and positively bolted-up.
He’s been laid out for this, and whilst the handicapper hasn’t been very generous (and his price is short enough), he remains on an upward curve, and is very much one for the shortlist…….imo.
He is certainly better than the no-hoper TAPK (and yourself?) have him tagged as.
Those two horses mentioned apart, an eachway bet looks to be Pomme Tiepy, who came 5th in the Irish Grand National last April, and although this trip is very much the minimum for him, he has stamina assured. He is still relatively unexposed and if his jumping holds up, then 33/1 looks appealing if he goes to post.
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I was making some changes to Pomme Tiepy’s pedigree on Pedigree Query yesterday. She’s got some Anglo-Arab blood about 4 generations back.
You won’t be surprised, TAPK, but I think Atouchbetweenacara has a great chance myself.
Will you stop dangling Carrotts!I"m not biting!
Poqy baby to win?…..
Poquelin is undoubtedly a talented horse,he shows much more grit and determination this season,but in my opinion is defineately a better horse on Good ground,he ran a very strange race against Tranquil sea and did incredibly well to finish 2nd!I could see him being trained for the Ryanair this year.As its level weights his handicap mark wont affect him so he has to run well this weekend!One thing for sure he has more chance of at least going off favourite than Atouchbetweenacara!
There must be a query around CHAPOTURGEON’S jumping?
7 starts and 3 falls; needs to sharpen up in that department.
Also yet to win from his revised handicap mark of 153; has his festival win been over rated?
Could fall into the talented but frustrating category…..
Ben, the same applies for Razor Royale and favourite Atouchbetweenacara – all three all progressive types who all require to brush up on their jumping especially in a big field such as this – and all three will have to defy a higher mark to win also. At this moment in time, I have two ante post bets on RR and Chapoturgeon as I feel their prices will probably contract by a few points come Saturday (and I don’t think ground is a huge factor for either of them, unlike some).
Tarotino was laid out for the Paddy Power in November, and got pulled up, he never acted on the heavy going, which i think was very soft.
If the ground is good to soft, as forecast, then i think he will go close.
The southern lot are in a nutshell over-rated ponies and if Skippers Brig turns up he’ll laugh at them. Quite like Gwanako tho despite the poor record of top-weights in this race. He’s a deffo runner too (apparently).
Ben, the same applies for Razor Royale and favourite Atouchbetweenacara – all three all progressive types who all require to brush up on their jumping especially in a big field such as this – and all three will have to defy a higher mark to win also. At this moment in time, I have two ante post bets on RR and Chapoturgeon as I feel their prices will probably contract by a few points come Saturday (and I don’t think ground is a huge factor for either of them, unlike some).
Rich,dont worry about Razors handicap mark,its still on the shy side imo!As for his jumping,its getting better all the time for a 7yo!He certainly jumped very well last time round Cheltenham!
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