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Despite being 3lb higher than when winning this race two years ago, Tamarinbleu has to have a hell of a chance. His Wetherby form with Deep Purple is rock solid, he’ll go on the ground, he’ll stay, he’ll jump, he’s flexible tactics-wise and, although he’s approaching veteran age, he’s still only raced 30 times.
I think 10/1 is too big, even in a race of this nature.
This is super competetive, so siding with the genius that is R Walsh is an easy choice to make; his improving mount Poquelin aint bad either.
A clean round and a slightly more positive ride should see him make it look a bit easier than last time when 2nd to Tranquil Sea. Ruby knows.
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I would have expected a big run from Tamarinbleu despite the best when fresh label attached to him but the ground may have gone against him. The form has worked out well and he could still be placed but he looks there to be shot at on this surface.
I certainly wouldn’t underestimate Atouchbetweenacara. He was beaten on soft over fences but it would be just on the soft side of good when he hacked up here in his following race. This isn’t exactly the best of races considering the prize money.
I do like Skippers Brig but this is a huge jump in class for him. Whether Lenny Lungo would have sent him here or not I don’t know but Nicky Richards thinks he’ll win this
I think he’s shooting for the stars and might at best hit a cloud. He goes on the ground has won twice at Carlisle where the hill is even stiffer than Cheltenham’d so he should love the course. However he’s pretty much exposed and he he picked up a 5lb penalty at Ayr which won’t help his cause in this class.IMO the race Poquelin finished 2nd in was a much better contest than this. The form of that race looks rock solid and if Tranquil Sea was in this with 11s8lbs we would be falling over each others trying to get on. It seems a bit boring PN and Ruby again and he’s now fav but there’s no denying he must have a great chance. 11/2 at 1/4 the odds to be in the first 4? Looks like the bookies have decided to give us an early Xmas present.
Hold Em should run well but he’s got a nasty habit of finding 2 or 3 too good for him. Gwanako will hate the ground but Chapoturgeon goes ok on it, If the pace isn’t too hectic he may get round but he would need a trouble free round to win this and should be twice his current odds. Old Vic who they were talking about retiring would need a miracle to win this.
Sky’s The Limit but he hasn’t won for 2 years but was a very high class novice before something went wrong. He ran very well behind Sizing whatever but that was a bad race and hardly proves he’s back to his best. Can only watch and hope if you back him.
I’m going to keep my eyes on From Dusk Till Dawn and see how he jumps the first 4 or 5 fences. This horse has won twice round here and finished 2nd so he must like the place. Hasn’t jumped a fence in ages and there’s nothing in his form that says jumping is a problem. Could be worth two or three quid at long odds if jumping well early doors
NTD can be trusted to have them spot on in these big handicaps and Razor Royal will be no exception. This horse would have been absolutely thrown in here of 10stone but has to carry an 11lb penalty. However that might not be enough to stop him and I see him as the one who might ruin PN’s day and mines.
Poquelin 11/2 ew for me though, with a saver on Razor Royal and a RFC for luck.
Any opinions on Jayo for some value ? Could be one that got under the radar
Think im going today – just about to jump on the bus – cheap seats for me atm
still racing is racing – im too close to not go It has to be Poquelin for me. There can’t have been many horses that have finished second in a paddy power and only go up 1lb
would have thought a rise of 4/5lb would be mandatory.I too was surprised Poquelin only went up 1lb after the Paddy Power, and although I have missed the 6/1, I still think 9/2 is a very solid e/w bet, and will probably invest.
Poquelin finished really well in the Paddy Power. Did not travel or jump with as much fluency as usual there, only getting in to it late. If he can cut out the errors and travel better has a big chance, but will he and is there a temperament flaw. My 100% book price 13/2.
Skippers Brigg is an improver, unexposed with a good win / run ratio on soft or heavy going. Those wins are not in as competitive races as this and the big field may test jumping more. However at 14/1 (WH) looks outstanding value. My price 13/2.
Atouchbetweenacara won really well for Vennitia here last back end but has gone up a lot for that. Now with up and coming trainer Tim Vaughn. Has potential to improve but needs to. 8/1 may look value but unease in the market suggests he might just need this first run. 7/1
Tamarinbleu only carries 3lbs more than when successful in this a couple of years ago. Deep Purple winning the Peterborough franked the form of the Charlie Hall, Tamarinbleu runner up in that. Possibly best fresh, but has had a fair break. There are other prominent runners in the field to take him on. 11/1 seems a good enough price. 7/1
Chapoturgeon started his fencing career as a poor jumper, then jumped well for a short time, but has since jumped poorly. That seems to be the norm now. Is unexposed but has gone up a lot for his Jewson win. 11/1
Mount Oscar is improving fast for his new yard. Looked full of potential in his novice hurdle season and is now fulfilling it. Won well at Newbury, first two finished clear. Stable was in far better form then than it is now. Around 25/1 on betfair is worth a bet. 15/1
Hold Em is not the very best of jumpers but usually runs well at Cheltenham. Is more consistent over this trip than over all record suggests. Handicapper probably has a hold of him now. 16/1
Jayo was running well in the spring (last time) before losing all chance with a blunder. 20/1
Sky’s The Limit ran well first time up over an inadequate trip, but runs well fresh. Not been the easiest to win with since a Festival win here a couple of years ago. 20/1
Razor Royale won an amateurs race here last time when the yard were flying, not quite so strong now. Seemed to thrive over 3 miles that day. Has not been the most consistent over the years. 22/1
From Dawn To Dusk’s best form is on a sounder surface, has a chance on form if he acts on this but was a non-runner on similar ground in the Paddy Power. 28/1
Idole First has not run for a good while now but loves this place. Has been dropped to a winnable mark if in A1 condition. 40/1 looks big enough to take the chance. 28/1
Our Vic won a poor race last time, fair in the Paddy Power too. Well handicapped on his best form but looks on the downgrade. Often seems to down tools when taken on for the lead and there are other front runners in this field. 40/1
Gwanako does not seem at his best at the moment and is exposed even at his best. 50/1
Stan also looks exposed. Is inconsistent and sometimes needs a run or two to hit a peek. Now with Tim Vaughn. 66/1
Bible Lord has not been a good jumper in the past and a crashing fall at Aintree won’t have helped. Has a squeak at his best but unlikely to be at that best. 100/1
Knowhere seems to have lost it, poor recent form, poor jumper, poor temperament, poor chance. 200/1
Value Is EverythingThere’s talk of Atouchbetweenacara being a Ryanair horse and he’s a confident selection for todays Cheltenham showpiece.
He boasts a progressive profile and goes well fresh. His Huntingdon effort behind Master Medic reads particularly well.
Skippers Brig is another taking a step up the ladder, but he is open to plenty of improvement off a low weight and will enjoy the conditions. He does stay further than this and may need a bigger test of stamina, but he’ll be staying on when others have cried ‘enough’.
Ruby Walsh once again incredible at Cheltenham….has there ever been a better rider of that course?
Always in the right place….avoided bumping and tired horses disrupting his run. Ooooo
An incident packed race.
Well done to the Nicholls / Walsh partnership. Unstoppable. Would arguably have had a 1-2 but for Chapoturgeon belting the last.
The winner looks progressive and will progress into a top class performer. Still only six.
Skippers Brig has a decent handicap in him, especially over three miles-plus.
Poquelin 11/2 ew for me though, with a saver on Razor Royal and a RFC for luck.
Well done Fist – you’ll be happy after that result.
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Thanks guys!! For my next tip send your cheques to Grassy he’s my new agent
Well done Fist.
Just proves, every dog has it’s day.
Seriously, good picks.I told you Kyber Kym was a Champion Hurdle horse, shame it has taken two years for him to look like one.
Value Is Everything
I think he’s shooting for the stars and might at best hit a cloud. He goes on the ground has won twice at Carlisle where the hill is even stiffer than Cheltenham’d so he should love the course. However he’s pretty much exposed and he he picked up a 5lb penalty at Ayr which won’t help his cause in this class.
still racing is racing – im too close to not go 
would have thought a rise of 4/5lb would be mandatory.
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