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I don’t think Sommersby has to get within a couple of lengths to be honest. It’s still early doors, and it might just be the case that the ground come arkle day is a lot better than the soft stuff that faces inspection tomorrow. Sommersby hasn’t run in the stuff before. Infact, if he gets easily beat you could go back in once someone on the machine gets cocky and writes him off !
You"re a quick learner Graeme,i like your thinking,its just always nice to see your horse develop appropriately!I did just what you suggested,when i backed Fleeting spirit at 42 on the Machine for the July Cup,when people thought she wouldn"t run!Mind you one of them was her trainer!!
He may be 11yo but any horse that can beat Kauto star can beat the likes of Dont push it and My will.So at 3/1 Our Vic is worth a wager today,he didn"t disgrace himself in the Paddy Power either,i hope the old boys class will see him prevail,he did beat My will at levels when they were younger too!
Great stuff again from TAPK![/color:1t3w8xt5]
Looking forward to the Tingle Creek and the Henry viii this weekend,Somersby has got to be within 2l of the winner to be an Arkle winner as he will still have plenty to work with for Cheltenham!I really cant split Twist Magic and Forpadydeplasterer for various reasons so my banker of the weekend is Joncol in the John Durkan at 9/4 on Sunday.Everything is in his favour,particularly the fact that he is race fit,trained for this, as his early season target,where as his main danger imo Aran concerto,will come on for the run,mind you Aran has won 6 from 8 and is a top class horse when sound,another cracking race to look forward too!
I remember last weekend launching my crown into the moat when Denman showed me what the King of Chasing was capable of!I had to get my wellies on to fish it out!Thankfully all that was damaged was my pride!What a difference a week makes!Confidence is King!
Work hard, play hard,train hard,well not so much of the last these days but still.That one can be replaced with Study hard!
TAPK is a great believer in celebrating his victories with a glass of wine or two!So i have only just sobered up!I have been keeping my eye on the B,S.com Gold cup which is run on Saturday at Cheltenham,when i first cast my eye down the race a week or so ago,i thought Chapoturgeon stood out!Looking at the field with there current allocated weights i have to say that Razor Royale is thrown in,absolutely chucked in with 10-9lb on his back!Chapoturgeon has 11-8lb,that is a lot of weight and could just catch him out!Should the weights rise,it will still leave "Razor" getting a stone from the top weight!I remember the 08 Ballymore well for obvious reasons and that day i remember Razor was rated officially higher than the likes of Trafford Lad,Fiveforthree etc and virtually on a par with Forpadydeplaster!He ran an absolute cracker,still bang there going to the last.Paddy defineately eased him down when his chance had gone up the hill,but that did him no harm.I have taken 12/1 and 10/1 and fully expect him to run off a mark of 140,he handles soft ground well and gets further,loves Cheltenham,is trained by a Master and should be ridden by Paddy!All things being equal he cannot be out of the first 4!TAPK makes it sound easy but he knows the risks better than anyone!Hit the cross bar! but still a victory![/color:lisbdsd6]
Have to agree with your assessment there, I had a look at the race yesterday and picked out Chapoturgeon and Razor Royale as the two against the field. The way RR won last time at Cheltenham in a competitive class 2 handicap suggested he is rekindling his 2007 form where he looked to have a very bright future indeed, beating Nenuphar Collonges and finishing close to Aigle D’or and Forpaddytheplasterer. If Twiston=Davies has ironed out sketchy jumping, especially in a highly competitive heat such as this, he has a decent chance at 10/1 (I can’t have the favourite or second favourite).
Boylesports are going 11/10 Celestial Halo 13/8 Punjabi,
6/1 Medermit for their race on Saturday!Personally i would have thought 4/6 Celestial, 9/4 Punjabi,but what do i know!If Celestial does not go off odds on i will be amazed!Never had a bet!Thankfully!
Knowing Albertas Run like the back of my hand,i can only say that if he can give 10lb to Tidal Bay,a horse that has beaten him twice convincingly,once at levels then he is a better horse than i thought!Slight problem though is Tidal Bay has not progressed to the highest of echelons like many thought he would and his jumping is less than convincing!Having said that,Howard Johnson wouldn"t send Tidal down to Huntingdon if he didn"t think he was up to the task!This is a definite betting/laying in running race!
Lost £40[/color:26io5qqo]
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Oh! I posted in my diary before reading your and assumed you would be backing Alberta’s. Good luck with whatever you end up doing.
I always like a bet at Cheltenham and my one for today is Thetotherone at 3/1.I can see why he never ran in the Hennessey now,a race i would have seen as ideal with 10-00lb on his back,today he has his fair share to carry but he is a better horse than The Package and According to Pete,who could both travel well around the course,but will they find much up the hill?Thetotherone should find everything to suit today!!
Lost £20[/color:3fag06j8]
TAPK has been studying the re-runs again,trying to find future winners at big prices and has come to the conclusion that Tidal Bay has run out of chances of being a Chaser of any substance,his confirmation and head carriage just wont let him get cleanly over a fence!The horse has an engine he gets 3m no problem and at 65 on the machine,he is worth chancing in the World hurdle against Big Bucks,who actually suffered much the same as a chaser!I honestly believe that Tidals jumping is so bad he will eventually injure himself,particularly when you see him reach for a big one and his neck goes back and he looks like he hunches up!He is not a pretty sight when you watch him in slow motion either! I have No doubt connections must feel the same!
I remember going through the decs for this years Hennessey Gold Cup and thinking with 10-00lb on his back Calgary Bay will think he"s been let loose.Connections decided to run him in the 21/2m handicap instead,i duly backed him at 16/1 and he started the race respectively,but his jumping ultimately let him down!Calgary then went to Doncaster on Saturday and absolutely hosed up,his jumping at times was nothing short of spectacular,the way he springheeled the last and cantered home with 11-10lb on his back left the impression he could still be a Gold cup contender!TAPK couldn"t resist a bit of the 120"s on Betfair and 20"s to place!What i will say though is,if connections decide to keep to the handicap route,Calgary Bay would be a Good thing for the William Hill Chase at the festival,top weight guaranteed!He won off 142 at the weekend,was rated 150 in last years Arkle,so if the handicapper raises him a deserved 12lb,he will go up to 154,which would just make him legible for the Cheltenham handicap over 3m 1f!Should i see 10/1,i will grab it!!
Nailed him at 16/1,great to see him backin the winners enclosure,more to come![/color:1ce95bhc]
As with Somersby, HK has always maintained that Calgary Bay will be a proper horse when he comes of age. At 6, he’s already won a Grade 2 chase at Cheltenham and two competitive class 2 handicaps, also at Chelt and at Doncaster. His progressing career so far has been blighted by inconsistency and "seconditis", but in all probability most runs have been for pure experience with the target that when the horse is 7, 8 or 9, he will be a big contender for the "big" races such as the Gold Cup, maybe the King George as well. I’ve said it before, if there was a 2011 or 2012 Gold Cup Market, I’d definitely be playing now, but for the time being, Im with TAPK that he is a live contender for any race he goes for at the festival.
There is a grade 1 race at Leopardstown on the 27th of Dec called the "Paddy Power Dial a bet chase" over 2m1f.W,Mullins has several entered but i like the look of Golden silver,this horse has vast experience having come over from France as a youngster,i remember thinking in last years Irish Arkle,that Forpadydeplasterer was a certainty and backed him at 5/2 only to see this fellow nail him on the line,admittedly Forpady hated the ground,but it was still a taking performance from the winner!I expect the ground to be soft enough to suit Golden silver and look forward to somebody pricing the race up!I would take 5/1 now! In fact i might phone my mates Corals,they never let me down!
Winner at 7/2[/color:1blwhz6a]
I remember going through the decs for this years Hennessey Gold Cup and thinking with 10-00lb on his back Calgary Bay will think he"s been let loose.Connections decided to run him in the 21/2m handicap instead,i duly backed him at 16/1 and he started the race respectively,but his jumping ultimately let him down!Calgary then went to Doncaster on Saturday and absolutely hosed up,his jumping at times was nothing short of spectacular,the way he springheeled the last and cantered home with 11-10lb on his back left the impression he could still be a Gold cup contender!TAPK couldn"t resist a bit of the 120"s on Betfair and 20"s to place!What i will say though is,if connections decide to keep to the handicap route,Calgary Bay would be a Good thing for the William Hill Chase at the festival,top weight guaranteed!He won off 142 at the weekend,was rated 150 in last years Arkle,so if the handicapper raises him a deserved 12lb,he will go up to 154,which would just make him legible for the Cheltenham handicap over 3m 1f!Should i see 10/1,i will grab it!!
TAPK must be losing his touch! The Official handicapper has only raised Calgary bay 11lb to a mark of 153,i believe this fellow will end up a 160+ horse before long!
Being a natural talent spotter and having backed Tom Chambers to win Strictly last year at 5/1 and X Factors Leona Lewis at 7/2 and Alexandra at 9/2,i have just backed Ricky Whittle at 7 on Betfair to win this years Strictly Come dancing,purely on the fact that he is the only one i have seen so far with any rhythm, Joe calzaghe was the 6/1fav at the start of the show but having watched him dance,he has absolutely No chance!
Syrian has more chance of winning the 2000gns!!Way back in September i had £30 on Ricky Whittleto win Strictly come dancing at 6/1,i have also had £20 on him at 5/1,i stand to make a profit of £280.Normally i would let it ride and take the chance that Ricky is to Kauto star,what Chris is to Quixall Crossett! as far as dancing ability goes there is No Contest!Ali Bastian was head and shoulders better than Chris also and look what happened there!This competition is supposed to be about dancing ability,but as soon as you let the public have the casting vote,you can throw the rule book out the window!It never ceases to amaze me how thick Joe public can be at times and because of this i have decided to lay off £100 of my "Winnings" at 4/5.At least i have a guaranteed profit,win or lose,£200 if Ricky wins,or £50 if he loses!Its the sensible thing to do as i would be gutted if Chris does get the vote for being a sweetie!
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