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TAPK is busy studying for this Seasons Derby and already the pen has gone through 3 Group 1 winners, Frankel,Casamento and Recital,all of whom have been talked of as Derby horses,all of whom have tall reputations but none of whom have "The look" of a Derby winner,irrelevant of form a Derby winner has to look the part and i have 3 lookers on my shortlist now!
Sea Moon
,33/1
Carlton House
,20/1 and
Seville
,14/1,it also helps that all 3 will get 11/2m stood on their heads!
I notice you took down your handy guide to antepost betting in an earlier thread. But perhaps you could say what the ‘look’ is. So far I have come to the conclusion that horses that look and are big tend to do better at NH races but I don’t know what to look for in a Derby horse – maybe a leftfooted horse if there is such a thing.
This might need a bit of explaining TAPK. I agree that great horses have "a" look but would query that they all have "the" look. If you look at the last few Derby winners they all look supreme atheletes, as one would expect at that level, but visually they are all very different as well.
Does "the look" mean when they are standing still or when they are running? Sea Moon is a good looker but has a very high head carriage which would personally put me off whereas, in my opinion, Carlton House is not visually striking but is clearly a strong galloper with a good action. He also looks completely different in build and constitution to Sea Moon and Seville who I agree is very impressive looking.
As for poor old ugly Frankel (who is surely wonderful to witness in full flight)….one day you might say something nice about him but for now I suppose you have chosen your camp and are sticking to it come hell or high water!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Good Post Jonibake,what i mean by the look covers several aspects of a horses presence,1,the way he walks around a parade ring,2,the way he covers ground at a canter and 3,the way he gallops! If i take the last 10 Derby winners as an example i backed
Workforce
at 25/1 and its all on here as to why!
Sea the stars
had my pants down on several occassions but he did tick all the above,
New Approach
was an absolute athlete to look at and i backed him at 10/1.
Authorized
again stood out as a 2yo and looked a beast at 3,i never backed him though,
Sir Percy
was another who cost me,i thought
Dylan Thomas
was the 06 Derby winner,another fine stamp of a horse who never let me down.
Motivator
reminded me a lot of Authorized,both moved with grace and again had the look,i never backed him though!
North Light
was another who slipped the net but again had a powerful presence about him,not a looker though!
Kris Kin
just never ticked any boxes for me and proves that not all Derby winners are a picture!
High Chapparal
had a gritty determination that reminded me of Reference Point and i backed him at 10/1,i thought his balance was superb and that he would rail Epsom,he duly did!
Galileo
arguably the best looking Derby winner ever imo,he had everything,presence,power,athleticism,he was awesome and i backed him at 10/1!
Sinndar
another who slipped my net but again never let the side down! If i was pushed to name this years Derby winner and obviously i can see physical similarities between
Sea Moon
and
Workforce
and
Carlton House
and
High Chapparal
,i would say
Seville
reminds me a lot of
Sinndar
and Seville looks like a machine at the gallop,i can see him taking off around Epsom,i wouldn"t want it soft though! Recital and Frankel have No Chance!
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Good post Mr.Ante, you certianly have what it takes to make a decent living in the ante post markets on that strike rate.
I wasn’t into Racing when Sinndar was around but in the last few days I’ve caught up on the year 2000 rating the top 20 three year olds and he was pretty special! might be old news to some but I’ll be making a topic later with my findings.
Mr W,our Swords will clash in competition at some point but until then i suggest you learn the pattern,once you have mastered that you will begin to understand a trainers mindset and for as much as they wont tell you,they are telling you a lot! Sir Michael thought he was having the punters pants down with
Workforce
last year but mine stayed around my waist with my Crown Jewels intact!
Thanks for that TAPK and for the explanation which I found fascinating.
I am with you on Seville (have 25’s) but for the life of me can’t understand why you are writing off Frankel based on his looks. "…every inch the athlete, lithe and perfectly proportioned" was how Greg Wood in the Guardian put it. What is it about this horse’s looks that puts you off? So many that have seen him in the flesh (myself included) have commented on his powerful, atheletic appearance. Words that you used when describing his father Galileo but, I assume, words that you would not associate with Frankel himself. Are you saying that he doesn’t look like a good horse or just not like a Derby horse? It is already looking unlikely that he will be going down that route anyway judged on what Henry said at Christmas on ATR.
Without wanting to sound like I’m licking your backside, I have been reading this forum for a while now and so really respect your opinion but I do wonder about your views on this particular horse.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
To be honest Jonibake,what got my goat with
Frankel
was after he won up at Doncaster,every man and his dog were shouting wonder horse and at that time they were all saying he could win everything including the Derby! My opinion was he had No chance of winning the Derby after that,then at Ascot he did an Arazi and whipped around the outside of the bend and was visually impressive beating Klammer who boosted the form in the Grp 3 Washington Singer at Newbury,only in an average time though! His Dewhurst was almost dissapointing for one so highly regarded and i believe
Dream Aheads
Middle Park victory will be officially rated the performance of the year in the 2yo category! What concerns me more than anything with Frankel is his physique,his temperament wouldn"t be ideal either but not enough to put me off him. What i see is a robust,very square framed horse who has a choppy action,his sire Galileo pointed his toe,Frankel has a smaller than average head sat on a thick neck connected to a set of massive shoulders,his power comes from the front unusually,Dream aheads power comes from his huge Ar*e.Frankel has nowhere near the scope for improvement as Dream ahead has and to look at him almost reminds me of an American Quarter horse,if i could compare him to any Juddmonte bred horse it would be Tenby and he too was over rated! I am convinced we have seen the best of Frankel and thats coming from someone who has been Prince Khaleds number 1 fan for 25yrs! Anyone with Ante-Post vouchers for the 2000gns at double figure prices will be sitting comfortably but this horse will defineately go for a trial before the big one,ideally the Craven as he is such a thick set beast who will need a run! If the ground comes up soft i think Dream ahead will do him and if it comes up fast i think Wooton Bassett will stretch him so either way Frankels got his work cut out! All in my opinion of course!
Again, very interesting to get your thoughts. We may have to agree to disagree on a lot of them but time will tell.
I agree that he is robust and square – I think it was Kieron Fallon who called him "a bull" although I would not necessarily think that a disadvantage, especially if he is to stay at a mile. I can’t agree with you that his action is choppy. I don’t see how he could have put up the performances he has if his action was like that. For me he has a smooth action with the ability to quicken off a slow or decent pace and, most impressively, can keep up that gallop for 2 or 3 furlongs. In pretty much all of his races he has made his ground up not at the end of the race, when others are tiring, but several furlongs out when everyone is at full tilt.
I agree that the Dewhurst was not his most visually impressive performance but are you not prepared to take into account what jockey and trainer said afterwards? We clearly have to do exactly that if we want to give Dream Ahead any chance of reversing the form. After all the ground WAS soft for the Dewhurst which was supposed to be much more suitable for Dream Ahead than for Frankel. I accept that Dream Ahead was almost certainly not at his best that day but if we are prepared to forgive him that run we should probably also cut Frankel a bit of slack no?
I am a big fan of Wooton Bassett and would rate him the main danger in the Guineas but he did have some hard races last year that might just have left their mark.
I know you are convinced that we have seen the best of him but again can’t really agree. His trainer is convinced that he will make "a lovely 3 year old" and for me he does not fit the profile of a precocious 2 year old. In the last 20 years most of the champion 2 year olds who failed to train on were horses that made their debuts early in the summer and who were naturally forward colts. Arazi, Xaar and Johannesburg are the best examples of colts who made their debuts in May/June and failed to train on whereas Zafonic, Oasis Dream and New Approach debuted in July/August and did. Cecil described Frankel as "immature" when he made his debut in August and told the press that he had done very little with him. There is also the argument that he wouldnt need to improve very much to win the Guineas anyway, his Dewhurst winning mark being high enough to have won all but three of the last 20 Guineas.
My last disagreement would be your comparison to Tenby. Whilst I can vaguely picture him and remember him as small and robust, as a middle distance colt, he surely never had the speed of Frankel.
Anyway I don’t want to keep hassling you so we’ll wait and see what happens. Of course, as a holder of one of those double figure Guineas vouchers, I accept that I may be as impartial in my views as one who has chosen to go the other way. It’s not all about the money though is it?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Another excellent post Jonibake,i could discuss horses all day with like minded individuals,its the muppets that write something like "Kato Star will win the King George" and thats it,that rattle me.I like a detailed analysis about a horse and its chances in a race,that way people are sharing their thoughts and influencing others opinions.Anyway you are quite right in saying
Frankel
has achieved enough of a standard that would enable him to win the Guineas,i thought exactly the same about
Xaar
and he burnt my fingers in the 2000 gns of 98 and for as much as they look nothing like each other,i see similarities,particularly in their Dewhurst victories.I fell for the Xaar has achieved enough as a 2yo to win the Guineas,knowing that he had no scope whatsoever for improving physically and unfortunately he never did.Xaar was an expensive lesson for me,as was
Three Valleys
,both Abdulla colts!!Good Luck with your bet!
Thanks. Yes the writing was sort of on the wall when Xaar only scraped home in the Craven so we’ll probably get a similar clue from Frankel’s prep race.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
TAPK had his first bet as a fully fledged Professional today and
Synchronised
did exactly as i expected! So many thought he had too much weight and was an iffy jumper,where as he is actually a very progressive horse who is better than just your typical handicapper! As i have said before i always use what i call marker horses when assessing my selection,this horse was
L"aventure
and anyone who bothered to go through the form book for the last 6 years will see she has ran in a dozen Nationals and been placed or at least has ran well in the majority,she actually won the Welsh National 5 years ago! No horse has given her so much weight as Synchronised and beaten her like he did in the Midlands National,Halcon Genelardais did give her a stone when he won on 11-3 though,she was the perfect yardstick to gauge just how good Synchronised is and he proved just that! Sir Rembrandt would have given L"aventure a fright if he hadn"t fell mind too but he was another quality horse and Synchronised is just that! Today makes up for the huge dissapointment of
Burton Ports
curtailed season! Thats the price of Ante-Post betting i"m afraid!
I am not sure that Dream Ahead is that good. His time in the Middle Park was the same as that of the very moderate horse who won the Cheveley Park on the same day.
I had a lot e/w on DA when he had his showdown with Frankel so am perhaps a bit disillusioned. I think he can be forgiven one bad run but if his best run wasn’t that good then maybe he still has something to prove.
Incidentally I notice you have copied my trick of giving coded tips in your postings. The use of the unusual word ‘malarkey’ a while back was my coded tip for Major Malarkey who dotted up the next day. Nobody noticed though…like scattering pearls before swine.
on a recent trip to Seville I happened to see a recital of frankely one of the best french opera’s in the free world. I had quite a distant view and becauseicouldntsee took photos. I now need a picture editor as i have loads. My fault – for a few dollars more me Nora (wife) and I could have had the perfect view.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Having said that i went for a bit of a touch on
Knockara Beau
who like i said earlier should never have been 20/1.Some will still question his performance and arguably his jumping but what i saw was a horse who again did not like the ground,he wants it Soft and he wants further,he could be a Midlands national horse on that performance,he certainly redeemed his Wetherby run!
Great to see
Knockara Beau
get his head in front today up at Carlisle albeit over hurdles,he traded at 2/1 for a circuit with his ears pricked,6/4 7 fences out then evens 3 out was still a license to print money as he was clearly enjoying himself,the stopper of 11-12 started to take its toll after the last but he really was different class to these,i never saw a
Weapons Amnesty
Burton Port
or a
Weird Al
in this! unfortunately i never had a penny on!
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As I said in an earlier post Gordon never has a horse hahave more in his favour than what he had today…really surprised you let him go by. 1.88 for a place and better was available on the machine which was like buying money….tut tut!! not losing your touch are you?
Fist,i am more nervous about Cheltenham this year than any previous year as the stakes are higher and the weather has impacted on continuity,we"ll see then if i"ve lost my touch!
So long asMedermit
wins the Arkle i will have won on the meeting,i said the same last year about Somersby mind as their Supreme Nov form rocks!My first Ante-Post wager for this years festival was for Celestial Halo to win the Arkle,my 2nd was Medermit at 20"s and 16/1, the same pair i did in last years Champion hurdle. By the way
Albertas Run
is being targeted for the Ryanair,not the Ascot Betfair Chase,followed by the Melling Chase again.
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