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Welsh National 2009

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  • #13430
    Avatar photoHard Held
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    • Total Posts 223

    I fancy Halcon Generlardais strongly for this. Ran a nice race in unsuitable circumstances last time and off 157 I think one of the opposition is going to have to be very well treated to beat him at Cheptstow. I think the handicapper has given him a very big chance. I think he could well win and I certainly can’t see him finishing out of the first four. Have backed him E/W @ 14/1 and will look to hammer him in the TBP market on the day.

    Anyone else got a strong fancy?

    #262477
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8696

    Sure have Hard held and his name is also Halcon Genelardais i agree with you!Horses for courses and that!Erics charm proved that yesterday!I too have backed him at 14/1 e/w!I would fear What a friend at the weights if he were to run mind!

    #262605
    Avatar photorich1985
    Member
    • Total Posts 1217

    Halcon Genelardais looks a banker for a place for sure.

    However, the way Beroni has won his last two races sees him a worthy favourite for this, a very classy stayer for this season and next.

    I also like fellow Irish raider Arbor Supreme who is an extremely consistent horse and jumps and stays well, vital at Chepstow in this slog. 20/1 is an appealing eachway price.

    #262626
    KendalCavalier
    Participant
    • Total Posts 427

    If they omit six fences once again then Le Beau Bai after his performance on Saturday has to enter calculations on the likely soft/heavy ground. However, in the all too rare event they have to jump ALL the fences in a race I would worry about his tendancy to leave a big hole in at least one fence during every race. He certainly must have some engine on him to win, as he usually does, on bad ground depsite making errors. He’s most definitely progressive.

    #262632
    KendalCavalier
    Participant
    • Total Posts 427

    The one I can’t have is Our Monty because although he won the Cork National very easily it was off a mark of 110. He’s now up 32lbs!!! He was entitled to go up a lot, but that was quite surprising.

    The name that I am most pleased to see return in the entries but more with Aintree in mind is Iris De Balme, a more impressive winner over four miles you could not wish to see.

    Apart from Le Beau Bai, however, I will also be watching two of Mullins’ with Aintree in mind and they are Ballytrim being aimed at Liverpool but perhaps most notably Pomme Tiepy. I’m particularly interested in Pomme Tiepy because he twice beat my dark horse for next year’s National (now with Emma Lavelle) earlier last year. You heard it here first!!

    #262637
    Avatar photoGerald
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    • Total Posts 4293

    No you didn’t. :lol:

    £13.43 @ 443.08 Kilcrea Castle

    #262783
    Avatar photoBenAitken
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    • Total Posts 201

    The name that I am most pleased to see return in the entries but more with Aintree in mind is Iris De Balme, a more impressive winner over four miles you could not wish to see.

    I’m with you on this one Kendal Cavalier. A horse I am very interested in with regards to the Aintree National. Hopefully the time away from the track has been more precautionary than serious.

    #262791
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 10167

    I thought connections were adamant after the Scottish National that Iris de Balme was too tiny a horse to tackle the Aintree Fences?

    #263254
    Avatar photoGerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    For some reason there’s no story associated with iris De Balme on the RP site.

    Found this quote after the Whitbread though:-

    26Apr08 Sandown (30Gd ,RPR136)
    They went no gallop and when they quickened, Charlie Huxley said he got shuffled back and got no run. I’m disappointed, because this was a once in a lifetime, missed opportunity. At least he has showed that Ayr was no fluke. I mightkeep him in for the Summer National, but the aim will be Aintree next season. – Sean Curran, trainer

    #263278
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 10167

    He really is a tiny horse; can’t see him jumping round Aintree. Can’t remember much about the Whitbread..it’s a race that gets less interesting by the year; a shadow of it’s former self. Think I’ll have a bet on Kornati Kid and Coe for the Welsh National. No particular reason other than I haven’t had a bet for ages.

    #264088
    Avatar photorich1985
    Member
    • Total Posts 1217

    I don’t really like the front two in the betting – ok both look reasonably progressive, but at 6/1 and 8/1? Le Beau Bai has a good strike rate of 8 wins in 20 starts but I just can’t see him beating seasoned stayers in this race; don’t think he’s experienced enough.

    The Tother One equally has a fine win ratio but sometimes looks a bit guessy at his jumps and may be found out in this severe test.

    Halcon Genelardais on the other hand is an experienced stayer and has all the right credentials – 12/1 is a great eachway bet.

    Equally Companero has winning form on soft ground and at 12/1 also looks good – ran a fine comback fine at Carlisle recently behind the smart Money Trix and will stay – only issue could be his lack of experience in a large field.

    #264705
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8420

    Any news what horse Mullins will run in this race.And just to say i love watching these big field races.Though i got a bad record in them.

    #264819
    Avatar photowallace-no7
    Member
    • Total Posts 1511

    If Our Monti runs in this race he could go very close

    #264948
    Zebra
    Participant
    • Total Posts 74

    Having looked at the latest entry stage, my two are Coe and Silver By Nature. Does anyone know if they are intended runners?

    #264949
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 10167

    You’d have to say yes going by their prices. Just a bit worried about Silver by Nature’s jumping but have to admit to not seeing his last race. Will have to have a sentimental bet on Dream Alliance if he runs. Daren’t go onto ATR to look at the race or the Christmas decorations are not going to get put up…I know once I start looking at past races I’ll not emerge till Boxing Day.

    #264952
    Avatar photoBig Bucks
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    1 781-P3 Mon Mome16 9 11-12 Miss Venetia Williams50 160 157 168
    2 232P-4 Halcon Genelardais37 9 11-9 A King14 157 153 160
    3 /1F-22 The Tother One17 8 11-4 P F Nicholls60 152 164 173
    4 1P00-6 Nozic30 8 11-4 P F Nicholls60 Harry Skelton3 152 131 167
    5 P2-285 Gone To Lunch30 9 11-1 J Scott100 149 167 172
    6 3F-FP4 Miko De Beauchene22 9 11-1 Miss Venetia Williams50 149 128 172
    7 4116-6 Kornati Kid30 7 10-11 P J Hobbs63 145 149 167
    8 2P-4P1 Ballyfitz23 9 10-10 N A Twiston-Davies60 144 166 169
    9 1P1-71 Le Beau Bai23 4x 6 10-9 R Lee75 Mr O Greenall3 143 138 169
    10 11-735 Hello Bud36 11 10-8 N A Twiston-Davies60 142 149 165
    11 PUPP/2 Dream Alliance54 8 10-8 P J Hobbs63 142 —
    12 UP76-4 Turpin Green37 10 10-8 Mrs S J Smith 142 145 161
    13 31314/ Iris De Balme611 9 10-7 S Curran100 141 —
    14 280-PC Cornish Sett17 10 10-7 P F Nicholls60 141 85 83
    15 63/52- Flintoff289 8 10-6 Tim Vaughan 140 167 167
    16 1113-2 Companero49 9 10-6 J Howard Johnson80 140 128 170
    17 9411U1 Operation Houdini23 7 10-5 D E Fitzgerald 139 153 165
    18 2F9-22 Coe30 7 10-5 Mrs S J Smith 139 130 165
    19 2P6-53 Kilbeggan Blade23 10 10-4 T R George 138 142 157
    20 3F-P15 Oscar Bay23 7 10-3 J D Frost33 137 130 162
    21 3FU-51 Silver By Nature57 7 10-2 Miss Lucinda V Russell 136 127 168
    22 2214/9 Old Benny31 8 10-0 A King14 134 —
    23 1721-7 Merigo57 8 9-13 A Parker100 133 161 171
    24 13P-86 Sound Accord43 8 9-13 A M Hales100 133 163 168
    25 1P-U0P Zacharova17 6 9-12 Miss Venetia Williams50 132 157 160
    26 /PU-49 Oscar Park37 10 9-12 D W P Arbuthnot 132 —
    27 /4-731 Mr Strachan19 4x 8 9-11 Mrs S J Smith 131 124 170
    28 P-5146 Never So Blue23 8 9-9 Miss Venetia Williams50 129 125 163
    29 23-1P2 Gentle Ranger12 7 9-9 D E Pipe17 129 143 166
    30 3112-5 Rate Of Knots57 6 9-3 Jonjo O´Neill22 123 118 155
    31 P1-PFP Teeming Rain23 10 9-2 Jonjo O´Neill22 122 141 155
    32 36-721 L´Aventure22 4x 10 9-2 Nick Williams50 122 97 159
    33 U-PU62 Supreme Keano7 7 8-13 Jonjo O´Neill22 119 115 129

    #264956
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Coe is the name doing the rounds which will please you.

    If it was another race on another course I would back him but not here thank you very much. I think it’s the toughest track in Britain when the ground is soft or heavy and he’s ran his best races round Haydock and Wetherby………everytime he runs at a stiff track he runs badly and despite the fact he looks like he’s been laid out for this will give him a miss.

    I’m convinced Mon Mome won’t be winning again until the National and I really fancy him for a repeat so I might side with Miko de Beauchene….I think I’m right is saying he won it a couple of years ago?…on second thoughts maybe it’s better I don’t have a bet as I really don’t have a clue, as trying to work these type of races out taxes my brain too much :lol:

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