Forum Replies Created
- Posts
It’s usually a Venetia Williams horse or one with a low weight that wins these races, in this case it was both! Wouldn’t take out any of the horses today for the National, Aintree will be a completely different ball game.
Conditions are going to be atrocious and with not many of these liking heavy ground, it might pay to go for something at the foot of the weights. Totalize has all the right credentials, good age, in decent form, proven on the ground and relatively unexposed. With a low weight he’d do for me at 16/1.
Both Geraghty and Henderson were guilty of hyping up West Wizard in the stable tours, but something must’ve gone awry for him to flop so badly – they’re not the best when it comes to communication and PR, but they do know a good horse when they see one. The absence of clarification as to the wellbeing of the horse since is worrying, but wouldn’t give up hope yet – probably one for next year.
I think Colbert Station is worth another chance, was in the hunt when unseating and will have less weight this year. AP will have a raft of decent McManus horses to choose from but it would speak volumes if he opts for CS again. 20/1 isn’t a wonderful price at this early stage but is my number one at the moment.
Colbert Station went out like a light at the weekend, Rich. I’d be surprised if it was just down to a lack of fitness.
I agree he didn’t see out the race very well at Leopardstown after travelling reasonably well, but I’m willing to give him another shot over further. Whether he’ll have another prep run before April I’m not sure, or indeed he’ll go for the race again, so probably not wise to have a bet just yet.
I don’t think Rocky Creek is mature enough to be a contender this year personally, I’d be looking at a battle hardened 10 year old proven over 3 miles plus which the recent trends back up. Who fits that bill I’ll have to look at!
Yes, with the prospect of better ground I firmly believe FY can prevail. Whilst I respect Trifoliums most recent showing, I don’t think he’ll be able to repel the Mullins horse. Indeed, both they and Defy Logic have taken turns at beating one another of late so cannot rule anything out!
I can see the Irish dominating this year’s festival and is reflected with my main hopes Felix Yonger, Hidden Cyclone and First Lieutenant. I also like Black Hercules in the bumper and Noble Prince in the Coral Cup, they have strong contenders in almost every race. I’ve always been a New One fan and wasn’t deterred by his Christmas defeat, if he kicks for home early enough though he may have the speed to prevail – he’d be my main domestic hope.
McCoy has ridden him three times and has lost each time, Walsh seems to get a much better tune out of him for sure. His win time before last was very good and I see him as a big player come March. The Irish definitely hold the key for me?
Interesting quote from Paul Nolan regarding Defy Logic:
"Burst blood vessel in the Arkle at Leopardstown on Sunday. He likes to jump and go on at his own gallop and anyone taking him on suits him. He’s the best we have ever had, easily, by a long ways, from a long time ago and we are just so glad he proved that at Christmas and I don’t think it was any accident."
Wouldn’t write him off just yet.
I think Colbert Station is worth another chance, was in the hunt when unseating and will have less weight this year. AP will have a raft of decent McManus horses to choose from but it would speak volumes if he opts for CS again. 20/1 isn’t a wonderful price at this early stage but is my number one at the moment.
I’m not convinced Cheltenham suits Rocky Creek, think Aintree would be a better fit. TGB has always had a love affair with the course and could be a live outsider for the GC at 33/1.
Mart Lane looks an improver and Native Gallery a strong stayer, both proven on soft ground, my two against the field. A lot of these would prefer better ground, looks like the heavens are going to open come the weekend.
Think the test he’ll face tomorrow will be too much for him especially if trying to make all, might get very tired late on. However WH are going 4/1 tomorrow morning should anyone fancy him (if not backed ante post already).
You write Long Run off at your peril and if he is in the same mood as he was last year he will be tough to get past. I don’t really fancy the others so I’ve backed him at 12s and MB at 18s, should be a great race.
