Cotswold Chase 2014

[Bachelors Hall]

Traditionally a Gold Cup prep, in its time, this race has been taken by the likes of See More Business, Dubacilla, Looks Like Trouble and Master Oats. However, it has lost some of its lustre recently and is unlikely to have a major impact on this year’s Gold Cup. If anything, it’s more likely to be a pointer towards the Grand National but all the same, it’s still a very solid Grade 2.

Here’s a run through the entries;-

Unioniste
This six year old would be the youngest in the field if he lines up but with Harry Derham booked, looks much more likely to run in the Great Yorkshire.

Pigeon Island
A safe jumper who hasn’t fallen or unseated for four years. Generally held up, his sole win over three miles came in an Ascot veterans’ chase last April. Has had 20 starts at Cheltenham winning twice including the 2010 Grand Annual off 129. Oldest horse in the field.

Restless Harry
Classy hurdler who’s taken the West Yorkshire and Rendlesham Hurdles in his time. Also won the Classic Novices’ Hurdle on this card in 2010. Very sketchy and heart-stopping jumper but was fluent throughout went posting a career best effort over fences last week when winning a handicap chase at Newbury by seventeen lengths. However, that was off a mark of 122 and probably won’t be able to match the younger legs here and current entry in a Fakenham handicap is indicative of the aspirations held for the admirable ten year old.

Time For Rupert
Formerly a high class hurdler, Paul Webber’s stable star finished second to Tidal Bay in the 2010 Cleeve Hurdle before filling the same slot behind Big Buck’s in the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season. Made a promising start to his chasing career winning two Cheltenham novices (including over this distance) before finishing fifth when favourite for the RSA chase. Never really built on his early promise and whilst highly tried, is without a win since beating The Giant Bolster in a Newbury Graduation Chase 25 months ago. Spent a year on the sidelines with a suspensory ligament problem on his right foreleg before a lacklustre return in the Long Walk. Plenty to prove and holds alternative entry in Great Yorkshire.

Walkon
Leading Juvenile Hurdler of 2008/09 season collecting the Grade 1s at Chepstow and Aintree as well as finishing runner up in the Triumph. Has never evolved into a top class Chaser but has spent most of his career plying his trade in top handicaps running off a mark in the 150 region. Finished runner up in both of the top 2m5f end-of-year Cheltenham handicaps last season and supplemented those performances with a decent second to Triolo D’Alene in the Topham when beaten by less than a length whilst conceding a stone in weight. Fell on his reappearance when favourite for the Old Roan in October but typically a very sound jumper. Apparently being targeted at the Grand National although his form over three miles plus reads 5PP. Is another who holds alternative entry in Great Yorkshire

The Giant Bolster
A grand servant for David Bridgewater who’s made a career out of exceeding expectations. Belying odds of 200/1 when beaten only 7l by Peddlers Cross at the 2010 festival, he has subsequently gone on to finish second and fourth in the Gold Cup. The Giant Bolster also performs well at this particular meeting winning the novice handicap in 2011 and trouncing the field by 17l in the 2m5f handicap the following year. Has been generally disappointing since his fourth to Bobs Worth in March and went out quickly in a Handicap Hurdle here on New Year’s Day. Nevertheless, his efforts tend to pick up in the build up to Cheltenham including last year when second to Silviniaco Conti in the Denman Chase. However, he has yet to convince that he copes well with soft ground and he can be a bit iffy at his fences.

Harry Topper
Is regarded by Kim Bailey as his best since Master Oats and responsible for breathing new life into his trainer’s career. He made a flying start to his career over fences taking the scalps of Rocky Creek, Benefficient, Houblon Des Obeaux and Highland Lodge along the way before his season petered out by unshipping at Kelso and being brought down at Punchestown. Returned with a dour success in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby jumping slowly to begin with before finding his rhythm and battling all the way to the line. Did quite the opposite on a sounder surface at Sandown next time, jumping well to begin with before losing the plot at half way and finishing last of three. Harry Topper has been targeted at this race since that run and an improved effort is very much expected here.

Champion Court
A horse who typically runs well at Cheltenham, winning Grade 2s here as a novice hurdler, a novice chaser and, most recently, as a handicapper last April. Champion Court also applies himself with credit at the Festival finishing fifth in the Ryanair, second to Sir Des Champs in the 2012 Golden Miller and fourth in the Spa to Bobs Worth. Despite not being the most reliable of jumpers, he’s a predominantly consistent sort who was desperately unlucky not to win the Peterborough Chase last month. Most of his career has been spent at the intermediate distance although he was beaten 23l last time out at Kempton and reportedly wants further these days. His previous efforts over three miles include a second in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase and a fourth in a King George although he also holds an alternative entry in the 2m5f handicap on the same card.

Theatre Guide
Beat Magnifique Etoile and contested £50k Fairyhouse bumper before a solitary season over hurdles suggests Theatre Guide has long been thought of as a chaser. He made a pleasing, albeit flattering, start to his chasing career beating Hinterland at Exeter but his jumping let him down for the rest of the season including in the Pendil Chase when he had the race at his mercy. Following a confidence booster at Newton Abbot and a summer on his back, his jumping has improved considerably this season, in particular his last two starts. After a pipe opener at Kempton, he ran a career best when third in the Hennessy before finishing second in another handicap over course and distance last month. Is an improving second season chaser but would still have a good half stone to find on the principals and has yet to prove himself on genuinely soft ground.

Houblon Des Obeaux
Initially a fair Juvenile, he spent his second season over hurdles in reasonable company and was able to win a handicap at Cheltenham off 135 as well as finish fourth in the Pertemps. It was when he was sent chasing that he came into his own winning his first two starts, including the Rising Stars at Wincanton, before running very creditable races in three consecutive Graded Novices. Form rather trailed off however in his final two starts last term, both of them at Cheltenham. This season, has seen him improve even further with a creditable sixth in the Hennessy sandwiched between two Ascot handicap successes. Acts very proficiently in soft ground and despite his propensity to miss one or two, is an otherwise a fine jumper. However, the disparity between his Ascot form and his form over fences at the radically different Cheltenham circuit would be a major cause for concern.

Triolo D’Alene
Won two provincial chases in France before joining Nicky Henderson in 2012 and has since exclusively ran over fences. Ever since winning at Ascot on his British debut, he has been a thoroughly progressive sort counting wins in the Topham and, last time out, the Hennessy amongst the efforts that attest to this fact. However, like Houblon Des Obeaux, there is a an even greater disparity between his performances on flatter tracks compared to more undulating ones. Indeed, his only poor runs in the UK have been at Cheltenham (beaten 29l in the Festival Novices’ Handicap, pulled up in the Mackesons Paddy Pink) and Sandown (beaten 19l in a graduation and 64l in a handicap). Furthermore, his initial target for the season was the Grand National and given his place at the top of the market for that race, that would appear to still be the case. He holds an entry in the Grade 2 River Don on Saturday and if he’s to head to Aintree, would be much better served going there instead.

Rocky Creek
A full brother to the ill fated Tell Massini, Rocky Creek won a top 5yo Maiden Point in Ireland before joining Paul Nicholls. Runner up on his hurdles debut before winning the River Don on his second start, he was found to be sore when running below par in the Spa at the festival. Since being sent over fences the following season, Rocky Creek has done very little wrong. Beaten by Harry Topper on his chase debut at Exeter (where it looked like he blew up) he won his next three starts over fences including victory in the Reynoldstown at Ascot where he beat subsequent course specialist Houblon Des Obeaux. Whilst a bit disappointing at Aintree on his final start, this below par run can probably be attributed to the ground. Made a delightful reappearance this term when second to Triolo D’Alene in the Hennessy where he just about came out best at the weights. Is very much a sound jumper who can also make the running which looks like an added bonus in a race with no obvious front runner.

Despite writing all this, I’m loathe (for personal reasons) to make any actually predictions. At a push, I’d say the race should be dominated by the second season chasers and given that the Hennessy is the key form-line and that his principal rivals have proven that they act better around different circuits, I’d say that Rocky Creek is an absolute bomb-proof dead cert. Harry Topper would be the one to look out for.

[Venture to Cognac]

Good write up BH.

Not the same for me this year with no Midnight Chase involved, his win in this 2 years ago brought a tear to my eye

Probably Rocky Creek for me too, he looks the most likely.

I’ve bet Triolo D’Alene, Theatre Knight, and Champion Court for Gold Cup. One part of me wants them to go (and run very well), but the more sensible part of me wants them to go for other targets.

Hopefull Triolo, the most likely of the 3 for The Gold Cup, will swerve this for the hurdle engagement. I think Theatre Guide will improve as spring approaches, bringing with it, hopefully better ground. I was hoping he’d take in something like the Racing Plus chase at Kempton en route to Cheltenham, but we’ll see. I actually think he’d run quite well in The GC, in what looks a (relatively) open year. As for Champion Court, I think I was drunk when I bet him, and think this, and the GC will be beyond him. Hope I’m wrong though.

I was actually quite taken by old Restless Harry last week, I bet him, and thought he was really impressive, and think he might just have one more big payday in him this season. All down to his jumping I suppose. Should have won more on him last week, but he was second choice to Duke of Monmouth, who’s passing the line just about now.

Rocky Creek for me too then, expecting a decent showing from him, though no bet for me either………..at the moment.

[peter .h]

A depleted line up, but still an open one. Really looking forward to this.

Harry Topper

appeals to me as potentially the class horse in the race. Houblon is a smashing horse, but i’d rather back him in a handicap.

Haven’t bought into the hype behind Rocky Creek. Should put me in my place if he’s up to it.

[MarkTT]

Another big race without a runner from Seven Barrows – in fact another big weekend with very few runners from the yard.

Don’t understand their entries sometimes.

[moehat]

Forgot to have my Gold Cup bet on Rocky Creek; watch him win tomorrow and his price to come in. Mind you, want Kim Bailey to have a Gold Cup horse again, so gunning for Harry Topper [although still concerned about his jumping].

[BigG]

I (along with Moe and Peter) really fancy the chances of Harry Topper in this. I Put him up in the Charlie Hall, ahead of my beloved Long Run, but the fact he beat LR doesn’t have the kind of gravitas it would have had before we realised LR’s bubble had well and truly burst. He did also finish in front of Unioniste, although that one was clearly not fully wound up for the Charlie Hall.

You can forget his last race at Sandown, he simply didn’y like the faster conditions, this should be right up his street today. I managed to get the 7s, but there is still plenty of 13/2 going about and I think that is excellent value.

[BigG]

You’ve got to hand it to The Giant Bolster, he loves Cheltenham and ran a gutsy race, well done.

Harry Topper ran a good enough race, and was running on better than anything at the end, but just how much did he give away at just about every fence. I know that’s the chance you take with him, but if they could just find the key to sorting out his sloppy jumping, he would have a cracking chance at the top chases. I’d be on the phone to Yogi Breisner if I were Kim Bailey.

[befair]

Great win for the Bolster, delighted for him an connections, as his campaign has always been ambitious. Thought his jumping was sticky early on, and he got cut off at the top of the hill on the final circuit, so a better performance than it seems on paper

[BeauRanger]

great win and likes much better ground (so i thought)

harry topper i think has his own ideas about the game – would like to see them both run in the gold cup but i think the bolster would come out top.

Im confused about the form but form is form and horses are horses

[stevecaution]

Forgot to have my Gold Cup bet on Rocky Creek; watch him win tomorrow and his price to come in. Mind you, want Kim Bailey to have a Gold Cup horse again, so gunning for Harry Topper [although still concerned about his jumping].

On today’s evidence they might as well forget about Rocky Creek for the Gold Cup. I didn;t think he was that good before today and saw him more as a National prospect in time. He seemed to tire quite a bit today though and maybe he hasn’t got the stamina. He was plenty short enough today, given the state of the ground and I thought he was a false price, so left him alone.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Peruvian Chief]

A remarkable turn-around for TGB after running like a drain over hurdles recently LTO when seemingly chucked in.

[rich1985]

I’m not convinced Cheltenham suits Rocky Creek, think Aintree would be a better fit. TGB has always had a love affair with the course and could be a live outsider for the GC at 33/1.

[Gingertipster]

TGB had been running as if out of love with the game and headgear (visor and hood) transformed him. Very much best in at the weights on best form. If he couldn’t win a Gold Cup in a poor year very unlikely in a good one.

I was a fan of Rocky Creek, still am in a way. There were three in the race who usually race prominently AND need a test at the trip; yet they went slowly. RC is a stayer who can’t lead himself, having appeared to pull himself up in the past. I don’t hold with the non-stayer arguement. Nicholls blamed a lack of a run in the Hennessey, yet to be asked a serious question until after the last but weakened badly late on the run-in. Suppose it’s possible needed the run again yesterday when the same thing happened. But there’s now got to be a big worry the "pulling himself up in front" was more to do with being a weak finisher. Such a good jumper and traveller, @ 25/1 could be an ideal back to lay candidate for Aintree. May well be able to get out at odds-on going over the last! A hood might even transform Rocky Creek too, as it’s possible crowd noise is the culprit for finishing efforts.

Value Is Everything

[stevecaution]

RC is a stayer who can’t lead himself, having appeared to pull himself up in the past. I don’t hold with the non-stayer arguement. Nicholls blamed a lack of a run in the Hennessey, yet to be asked a serious question until after the last but weakened badly late on the run-in. Suppose it’s possible needed the run again yesterday when the same thing happened.

He could well be a fair bit off peak form Ginger but it was discouraging to see him drop back quite markedly late on. Silvianaco Conti was expected to be pretty fit first time out this year but Nicholls told us different after the King George. I don’t see Rocky as a realistic candidate for the Gold Cup and it seems unlikely he would go there unless something happens to the stables bigger entrants. I would aim him at the National and hope for better ground than he faced on his latest run and then pray there is 20% still to be put in the tank for April!

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Steeplechasing]

If Rocky Creek wins the Gold Cup or the National, I’ll show my @rse at midnight Mass

[Venture to Cognac]

You don’t fancy him then Joe

[Steeplechasing]

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