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A lot of hold-up horses drift early as Betfair users often lay them, expecting to be able to back them back at bigger odds after a furlong or two. The reverse often happens with front-runners (though this doesn’t work if the buggers fall over as I found out with No Guarantees) at Wincanton on Saturday!
Is this the same Black Oval who had scored just once from 55 starts prior to today? I know he drifted from the forecast 3-1 but, IMO, that price was too skinny to start with given his poor strike-rate. He invariably finishes well but doesn’t get there. I made him the Racing Post Spotlight selection for a Banded race at Kempton a few runs back – I was fully aware of his poor record but the race was dire and I thought he might win by default – I put him in as the 5-1 fav only to see him drift to 10-1, whereupon I backed the beast, only to see him finish fast and late into a place, as per usual. I’m surprised the jockey has been done for the ride as Black Oval has simply run to form.
Given Kirkland Tellwright’s ‘previous’ for cocking up the going reports I assumed it would be called off the moment he said he was "optimistic". I’m convinced his office is in Surrey and that he has never even been to Haydock. :)
Just producing the Spotlight for Tajjree’s race at Wolver tomorrow – what price would you like her to be? ;) :biggrin:
(Edited by Mounty at 11:31 am on Jan. 17, 2007)
Mike, a Google search for Sam Willock throws up a link to The Independent Betting Arbitration Service (IBAS)….
"Began his career as a branch manager before moving on to various senior managerial positions within the retail sector of the industry, including customer service and operational development. Has actively participated in various industry committees. A new and valued recruit, he is a former Head of Trading with a leading bookmaking company, and with 40 years’ experience in the industry, will no doubt bring a wealth of knowledge to the Panel.<br>back"
Couldn’t agree more, though he owes me after getting chinned on a good thing in a pony race at Wincanton a few years ago!
The 12 1/4 shots that lost were all ridden by the same jockey who now resides in a country with no extradition treaty with the UK :biggrin:
In 2006 there were 53 1/4 shots (theoretical chance of 80%) in British Flat races, 41 won (77.4%), resulting in a loss of £1.75 to £1 level stakes.
7/4 shots (theoretical chance of 36.36%) won 669 times from 2039 (32.8%, loss of £199.25).
I was at the track today and have it on good authority that Hodges didn’t want to run him on heavy going but the owners insisted.
CR, perhaps you can ask RI what percentage of 1/4 shots win, and what percentage of 7-4 shots win (see "Are odds a good guide to form" thread).
I was under the impression that the betting is an accurate guide – 2-1 shots win more races than 9-4 shots, which win more than 5-2 shots, which win more than 11-4 shots etc, etc.
