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Are odds a good guide to form?

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  • #661
    Racing Daily
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    • Total Posts 1364

    IMO, no.  How can that be?<br>Yeah, a 1/4 shot will usually dot up.  But a 7/4 shot?  Bite ya fingernails time.  7/4 ain’t no outsider, most would call it a pretty good fav.  But how many win?  Not as many as you would think should do.<br>Is that a condemnation of the backers or the layers?  Who is getting it wrong?

    #35346
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    I was under the impression that the betting is an accurate guide – 2-1 shots win more races than 9-4 shots, which win more than 5-2 shots, which win more than 11-4 shots etc, etc.

    #35347
    davidjohnson
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    • Total Posts 4491

    RD

    On betfair where they get 100% books I would anticpate that approximately 4 out of every 7 7/4 shots win but that is purely a guess.

    Do you have the figures?

    #35348
    davidbrady
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    • Total Posts 3901

    Quote: from davidjohnson on 10:01 pm on Jan. 6, 2007[br]RD

    On betfair where they get 100% books I would anticpate that approximately 4 out of every 7 7/4 shots win but that is purely a guess.

    Do you have the figures?

    I wish you were my bookie DJ. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and presume you meant 4 from 11!

    #35349
    davidjohnson
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    • Total Posts 4491

    I originally wrote 4 out of every 11 DB and thought I had got my maths wrong then. It’s been a long day!

    #35350
    stevedvg
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    • Total Posts 1137

    7/4 ain’t no outsider, most would call it a pretty good fav.  But how many win?

    I’d guess around 33%.

    Not as many as you would think should do.

    So, it’s lower than that?

    I was under the impression that the betting is an accurate guide – 2-1 shots win more races than 9-4 shots, which win more than 5-2 shots, which win more than 11-4 shots etc, etc.

    Yep.

    Also, pre-exchanges it used to be that the shorter the odds, the greater average ROI.

    That is to say, if you put a quid on 1,000 horses that start 2-1 and I had a quid on 1,000 33-1 shots, you could expect to lose less of your money than I did.

    Now that the exchanges are here, the bookies market has no doubt evolved and this disparity may well have narrowed.

    However, I’ve no idea, I only ever bet with bookies when they are longer than the exchanges on a horse I fancy.

    (or when I want PMU odds on horses when the Japanese have bet a 9/4 shot into 1/5)

    Steve  

    #35351
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
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    • Total Posts 2065

    I think I agree RD. Surely the odds measure potential rather than form? So many favourites today were fav on potential rather than form shown imo.

    #35352
    stevedvg
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    • Total Posts 1137

    I’d guess around 33%.

    I just shoeved it through my old copy of RSB (had to install the discs first):

    Results for 7/4 and 15/8 combined:

    1991-2003: 1831 winners from 5477 runners, 33.43%.

    So, I wasn’t far off.

    Steve

    #35353
    Racing Daily
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    • Total Posts 1364

    So most 7/4 – 15/8 shots should really be 3/1 – 100/30?<br>That’s some markup LOL

    I don’t have figures dj, it just seemed that way.

    #35354
    stevedvg
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    • Total Posts 1137

    So most 7/4 – 15/8 shots should really be 3/1 – 100/30? That’s some markup LOL  

    It would be, but 33.43% is just under 2-1.

    I’m not sure what the point’s meant to be … that the bookies have a mark up so they can make a living from their jobs?

    Steve

    (Edited by stevedvg at 10:31 pm on Jan. 6, 2007)

    #35355
    Mounty
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    • Total Posts 455

    In 2006 there were 53 1/4 shots (theoretical chance of 80%) in British Flat races, 41 won (77.4%), resulting in a loss of £1.75 to £1 level stakes.

    7/4 shots (theoretical chance of 36.36%) won 669 times from 2039 (32.8%, loss of £199.25).    

    #35356
    Racing Daily
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    • Total Posts 1364

    Quote: from stevedvg on 10:30 pm on Jan. 6, 2007[br]So most 7/4 – 15/8 shots should really be 3/1 – 100/30? That’s some markup LOL  

    It would be, but 33.43% is just under 2-1.

    I’m not sure what the point’s meant to be … that the bookies have a mark up so they can make a living from their jobs?

    Steve

    (Edited by stevedvg at 10:31 pm on Jan. 6, 2007)<br>

    The fact remains that if I were to be backing all 7/4 and 15/8 shots, they would need to all, in fact, go off at 3/1 or higher for me to make a profit.

    #35357
    Mounty
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    • Total Posts 455

    The 12 1/4 shots that lost were all ridden by the same jockey  who now resides in a country with no extradition treaty with the UK  :biggrin:

    #35358
    Wallace
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    The SP system (old system) is amazingly efficient when you consider data for a full <br>season.  Another forum site posted the returns from a full turf flat season and when the win/expected results were plotted in Excel the graph showed a very tight correlation.

    A few examples form 2004 turf season.

    Odds Win%/Expected%

    Evens  50.5%/50%

    2/1  30.2%/33.3%

    3/1  22.0%/25%

    4/1  17.8%/20.0%

    5/1  16.9%/16.7%

    10/1  7.1%/9.1%

    16/1  3.9%/5.9%

    20/1  3.7%/4.8%

    I don’t have any recent data but I’m certain Betfair produces an excellent indication of the overall market and probabilities.

    Of course we all know to win at the punting/laying game you must find the horses where the odds are out of line with your expectation.<br>

    (Edited by Wallace at 10:41 pm on Jan. 6, 2007)

    #35359
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    Sorry RD, don’t understand what yer getting at with this

    <br>If the market was effecient, then there would be no point to betting, no point spending time studying, compiling your own tissue, compiling speedfigures, ratings etc

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