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4.8 is what Hurricane Fly was yesterday morning, he drifted to 7.6. This is a significant drift and represents more than 5 quid bets. He went from being 2nd fav to 4th, behind Menorah and Peddlers Cross.
JohnJ
Did like Rocco’s Hall, but he is a reserve, I think Alpha Ridge has a good shout at 8-1.
JohnJ
For what its worth I am a big Realt Dubh fan, and I disagree that the Irish division is poor, as I also think Noble Prince is a classy animal.
The main reason I like Realt Dubh is that he is not too flashy, jumps well, stays and battles. They went a proper gallop at Leopardstown on Sunday and this is great experience for a novice chaser. I think the stronger they go in the Arkle the better for Noel Meade’s horse, he is my selection.
JohnJ
IC,
I think Realt Dubh is terribly underated, I actually underated himself, he is not a flashy horse, but he is still improving IMO, agree about the ground, but the first two home are certainly anything but slow. especially when you consider that Noble Prince was a decent flat horse.
JohnJ
Noel Meade will send Realt Dubh to the Arkle, which of course you know is over two miles, he won’t be stepped up in trip to my knowledge.
As for slow boats you should be aware that today’s renewal was the fastest running in at least 10 years, fast by .2 seconds.
JohnJ
They first four were all travelling well over the third last. I’m not sure how you come to the conclusion that Flat Out would find plenty off the bridle, his last two races in Grade 1 company would suggest he doesn’t find a whole lot off the bridle, he fell in a hole in the Supreme novices hurdle two out. Just because he hit 1.66 on betfair doesn’t mean he would have won the race, Noble Prince hit 1.18 and didn’t win.
JohnJ
I am certain he would have won.
How could you be certain? The first four horses were all pretty much on terms coming to the second last.
For what its worth I think Realt Dubh idled when he the front, he is extremely careful over his fences, I think the 16-1 PP have on offer is extremely good value.
JohnJ
Lads,
Excellent thread, very interesting. It’s a shame that it descends into the usual crap.
JohnJ
I like Roccos Hall, was unlucky last time out, will handle the ground and stays the trip.
JohnJ
I have been really taken by Blazing Tempo. Willie Mullins, I think, is quoted as saying she will probably be kept against her own sex this season. However she is one of the most promising Irish chasers I have seen so far this season.
JohnJ
Fist,
You seem to forget that Long Run is a six year old, the same age as Kauto was when he won his first King George. I don’t think that Long Run is best suited by Cheltenham, but today he looked like a horse very much suited by Kempton. We may yet see Long Run get better as he gets older and if he were to continue to progress in the same vein as Kauto, there is no reason he shouldn’t be a standing dish at Kempton providing he stays sound.
JohnJ
Long Run reminds me of the kind of horse the novice buyer who goes to the sales and picks up because he’s the one with the shiny coat. Looks the part but isn’t.
I think people should face the fact he’s simply not that good. He had everything you could possibly think of in his favour last time out, was 100% fit and was backed accordinly but still ended up being outjumped and outpaced.
Considering the horse is merely a five year old I think that is very premature IMHO. He has been a talking horse that has yet to deliver, however to suggest a horse that has amassed career winnings of over £700k is not that good is complete twoddle.
For what its worth, I would love to see Riverside Theatre take his chance in this, he was very impressive last time out at Kempton, he didn’t beat much, but he looked a most improved horse.
JohnJ
Of course he could improve but he’d have to do so out of all recognition to even be a half decent threat to Kauto Star in the King George.
Your argument is pretty poor to be honest as he won almost all of his winnings in France against horses who would do well to win a handicap in the UK. In the UK he’s beat Tazbar and Joe Joe Star and got stuffed when it really matters. Fair enough he was giving a lot of weight to Little Josh who NTD has always rated very highly but the 2nd is no world beater which hardly gives the for the look of a what’s expected to win a King George.
You probably rate him higher than Nicky Henderson does and if Kauto Star hasn’t regressed I expect him to win doing handstands again.
Riverside Theatre is interesting but it’s not like Nicky to throw them into unknown territory at this level. Could be Mr Nesbitt wants to entertain some clients on Boxing Day or Nicky like me thinks the race has a poor look about it and thought why not.
Only a matter of time until one of Nicky’s less fancied horses finishes ahead of Long Run and people like you and Walley Cohen get the messsage.
Funny old game racing but for Kauto Star on all known form this looks like the easiest King George field he’s had to face in the last 5 years.
As much as I didn’t think Long Run would beat Kauto Star, I have to say, you should never dismiss a young horse. Super performance by the young pretender.
JohnJ
IC,
Well done again for your consistent posting of Irish Racing entries, top marks. I am really look forward to the next few weeks of Irish racing, the Thyestes, Irish Champion Hurdle and the Hennessey, there are some really good races on the under cards for these weekends also.
I think Realt Dubh is developing into a nice individual, he has progressed steadily and I think he is a lively contender for the Cheltenham Akle also, I expect him to win the Irish Arkle first though.
JohnJ
Stilvi,
Cue Card fully deserves to be the favourite on what he has achieved and of course his rating of 159 is fully justified based on his alrun. However, in an attempt to look for some value and the chance that Cue Card does not run to form, I am interested in horses that have the potential to improve to a mark of high 140 low 150. This type of improvement should be within the reach of a good novice.
JohnJ
I do believe that Cue Card deserves to be head of the market based on what he has achieved thus far, Zaidpour you can forgive his run at Leopardstown, as Willie Mullins said the horse ran flat, and it did appear to be the case.
However, one thing niggling at me since the International hurdle is how little Cue Card found off the bridle when asked to go about his business, and maybe he still needs another year to settle in the early part of his races. I think he maybe a little too short for the supreme, and with that blot on his copy book at Leopardstown I still think there may be more questions than answers about Zaidpour.
One horse that impressed me thus far was Alan King’s Iolith, you would have to discount his two runs last season as King’s horses were dreadfully out of form. His two victories this season were in ordinary enough affairs, run in slow enough times, but it was the manner in which he won. He wasn’t overly flashy, but he travels very well and he is quick over his hurdles.
Contrary to what Mr Grayson said on Timeform radio, I think he will be more suited to a galloping track and a stronger pace, he had a full brother that won over 12f, so I think he should be suited to a strongly run 2mile race.
Alan King said his next run will be up in grade, I guess that will be the acid test, I think he is lively outsider to a race that doesn’t have huge strength in depth at the moment.
JohnJ
