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The Oaks (fillies what can you do with ’em
). At this level speed is essential combined with form and luck in running and the proven fast runners are No’s 3,7,9. In which case Blue Bunting looks a worthy favourite. Taking a quick overall look at the form I came up with No’s 19, 3, 10 but Wonder of Wonders will ahve to get her skates on to win this. Siren’s Song could she be the each-way hit?Filtering each runner through 9 factors that have proved critical to indicating winning selections in the past and rating them by judgement values the race looks like this to me:
1. 10
2. 5
3. 19 Blue Bunting
4. 8
5. 2
6. 4
7. 9
8. 8
9. 13 Misty For Me
10. 8
11. 2
12. 11 Wonder Of Wonders
13. 7Just to keep the sequence going. A class 3 4yo+ sprint hcap over 6f on G – miss the break and you have done your cash.
Ripon 8.10
1. 2* Noverre To Go
2. 1*
3. 1*
4. 2*
5. 0*
6. 2*
7. 2*
8. Non-runner
9. 1*
10. 3* Coolminx (my 2nd choice)
11. 4* Pepper Lane £5 stake
12. 2*
13. 1*
14. 1*
15. 0*
16. Non-runner
17. 1*It looks like there is a good chance of sustaining the losing run today
.Leicester 3.15
1. 2* Azameera (my 3rd choice)(won 10/3)
2. 4* Menadati – Bet 4 £4 stake(Bet 4 lost, win aim £10, -£4 stake, debit due £14, bank £190)
3. 3* Elusivity (my 2nd choice)
4. 2*
5. 1*
6. Non-runner
7. 0*
8. 1*
9. 2*
10. 0*Redcar 4.10 The Zetland Gold Cup a race that could increase our losing run
. Both Formcast and RPR rate the field within a few pounds. However, I have to say that I have Sarrsar well ahead of Breakheart by VDW, but I’m just a poor punter 1. 1*
2. 2*
3. 2*
4. 2*
5. 4* Sarrsar – £3 stake (bet 3 lost, win aim 6, -£3 stake, debit due £9, bank £194)
6. 2*
7. 2*
8. 3* Arlequin (my 3rd choice with a negative draw to overcome)
9. 3*
10. 2*
11. 2*
12. 3* Breakheart (my 2nd choice)
13. 3*
14. 0*
15. 0*Bill,
You may recall at the start of this thread the aim was to establish a losing run to be able to illustrate the mechanics of the VDW staking plan, and IMO we could very well further that aim with this race at Nottingham today . A class 3 4yo+ handicap over 5f on good going, where over half the field on balance look to be in with a chance.Nottingham 2.05
1. 2*
2. 2* Humidor (my 2nd choice)
3. 0*
4. 0*
5. 1*
6. 1*
7. 0*
8. 2*
9. 2*
10.2* Skylla (my 3rd choice)
11. 2* Rocket Rob – £2 stake (2nd bet lost – win aim £3, -£2 stake, debit due £5, bank £197).Bill,
You really are a hopeless case
as this plan is so simple to operate, I mean if you have 4 losing bets staked 1, 2, 3, 4 and add another 1 aim for each losing bet you have a debit due of 14 points Win Odds = This column just shows winning odds as losing odds are of no interest.
Debit = 2. That is the Win Aim 1 point + 1 point stake lost
Bank = £199 is because only the £1 stake was lost. Perhaps the ‘debit’ column should be renamed the ‘due’ column as it is the debit due required.This thread began as an illustration of the mechanics of the Van der Wheil staking plan for Billion, so I thought I might return to that theme, as Bill is not yet with it as far as I can tell
. There is no point in going over old ground so I am going to keep to the principle of the staking whilst changing the position of the column headings of the staking to find out if that is easier to understand.VDW wrote, “Readers may be interested in the method I have used for over 40 years (since 1938 then), which basically aims to ensure I point profit from each bet. Stakes are increased by 1 point each bet until the debit is reduced to zero. However, note that stakes should not exceed debit by more than 1 point.”
Proposed column headings for the betting book record:
Win Aim/Win Odds/Stake/Result/Debit/Bank £200
1-0-1-L-2-£199
3-0-2-L-5-£197
6-0-3-L-9-£194
10-0-4-L-14-£190
15-7/2-5-+17.5-0=£207.5The above illustration is from my selections for Newmarket yesterday where 5.50 Bavarica won. In this instance employing level stakes would have resulted in 50p loss s whereas with the VDW staking plan a £7.50 profit ensues.
Starting from scratch today with a £200 bank to limit the potential risk of an adverse losing run I checked out the stars * for the Haydock 3.05 by £ class, consistency, Formcast, RPR.
1. 4* Crystal Capella – Stake £1(Lost -£1, debit due £2, bank £199)
2. non-runner
3. non-runner
4. 3* Ferdoos (3rd choice)(Won 4/1)
5. 2*
6. 2*
7. 0*
8. 0*
9. 0*
10. 3* Vita Nova (2nd choice)Bill,
How is this for the ultimate back-fitting post
Taking the Daily Mail Formcast .78 as the selection source in consecutive doubles at Newcastle today:2.10 5/2 won
2.45 4/11 won (no bet odds too short)
3.20 11/2 won +21.75
3.55 7/4 won +15.50
4.30 11/4 won +9.25
5.05 5/2 won +10.75
5.40 15/8 won +9.50A bet of 5 x 1 point cosecutive doubles wins about 66.75 points (and no I didn’t back them as it is not waht I do as you know)
Bill,
This thread has veered way off topic and VDW got lost somewhere along the way . However, due to the interest shown and being at a loose end as the afternoon racing is rather poor I thought I might add some further advice on staking, which as you know I seldom do owing the the fact that my wife says I am a B knowall, and she should know. Whilst striving continuously with might and main to improve your selection strike-rate this is a method of using a betting bank that I recommend:1. Aim to win 3% of your betting bank on starting on each bet. Divide the 3% base figure by the odds of the selection to find the stake and round odd numbers up to the nearest £5.
2. When you WIN add the amount won to your bank and your next bet is 3% of the new bank base figure divided by the odds of the next selection as per step 1.
3. When LOSING or getting a place take the previous 3% base figure and add it to the lost stake amount. Divide the result by the odds of the next selection and round it up to the nearest £5. This will provide the new stake.
4. Not backing at shorter odds of 6/4 is less of a risk to the bank.
5. Selections at 5/1 or longer are better backed each-way.
6. The only accumulative bet supported in this manner is the each-way double.Bill,
It is rather embarrassing for me with you singing my praises when I am just using my experience and logic when making a replyAnyway, I thought I might propose an alternative selection method for the strategy I detailed yesterday for anyone seeking to support fancied runners rather than those at odds greater than 5/1. A way to achieve this would be to wager consecutive doubles down the card with selections from any source, but eliminating any individual runner at shorter than odds of 6/4. These are the Free Timeform top-rated down the card at Newmarket today:
2.30 Damask
2.55 Blanche Dubawi
3.30 (nil)
4.05 Primaeval
4.40 Audacious
5.15 (nil)
5.50 BavaricaBet (starting from scratch) 4 x 1 point consecutive doubles
Bill, I perceive that you are back-sliding returning to your old ways concentrating on the single element of staking as a betting strategy. This stairway to the stars will just end up as a blind alley in my opinion. I am certain you know very well that you ought to take into account the three elements – selection, odds and staking. Anyway the staking known to you as ‘stairway’ is almost as old as the hills, here is a version taken from my betting notebook from 50 years ago (granddad knows
):The Casino Plan (originally devised to overcome unfavourable sequences at roulette)
Stake/Profit aim/Increase stake @:
1 – 1 @ -5
2 – 2 @ -13
3 – 3 @ -25
4 – 4 @ -41
5 – 5 @ -61
6 – 6 @ -85
7 – 7 @ -113
8 – 8 @ -153
10 – anyIn simple terms the staking progression on a losing sequence of 37 bets is:
111112222333344445555666677778888-10-10-10-10
A suggestion for a complete betting strategy would be:
Selection – Consider the 3 Free Timeform selections for any race
Odds – Take the first one of these, if any, at odds of 5/1 or longer
Staking – As per the Casino Plan aboveA betting sequence from this afternoon’s meetings might be:
Flk 3.00 Louisa Tetrazzini
Bri 3.10 Surprise
Flk 3.30 Thefillyfromsutton
Flk 4.00 Anjomarba
Bri 4.10 Giulietta Da Vinci
Bri 4.40 Titan DiamondTuesday racing and I should have known better
with this Beverly 4.00 a class 4 4yo+ hcap over 8f+ on GF. Formcast rates the field within 2lbs and RPR 3lbs ’nuff said, everything in with a chance. My order of merit 7, 9, 3.Beverly 4.00 (out of 4* for £class, consistency, Formcast, RPR)
1. 2*
2. 3*
3. 3*
4. 2*
5. 3* Aquarian Spirit
6. 3*
7. 4* Elijah Pepper
8. 3*
9. 3* Handsome FalconOwing to a thunderstorm I am excused gardening this afternoon
so I had a look at the listed stakes at Windsor this evening, the odds alas don’t look brilliant. The proven fast runners are No’s 1, 2, 4, which leaves the probable favourite Side glance some way behind, but as VDW advised speed is no good without form . My order of merit is 3, 6, 2.Windsor 6.40 (out of 4* for £class, consistency, Formcast, RPR)
1. 1*
2. 3* Penitent
3. 4* Side Glance
4. 0*
5. 1*
6. 3* The Cheka
7. 0*Punchestown 5.30 (by form in comparison to VDW* my order of merit 4, 3, 2)
2. Kauto Star
3. Kempes
4. NacaratPunchestown 5.30 (My order of merit 2, 3, 4)
2. 4* Kauto Star
3. 4* Kempes
4. 4* NacaratPunchestown by form in comparison to VDW*
5.30 Sizing Europe, Big Zeb, Golden Silver
6.40 Quito de la Roque, Western Charmer, Loosen My Load
). At this level speed is essential combined with form and luck in running and the proven fast runners are No’s 3,7,9. In which case Blue Bunting looks a worthy favourite. Taking a quick overall look at the form I came up with No’s 19, 3, 10 but Wonder of Wonders will ahve to get her skates on to win this. Siren’s Song could she be the each-way hit?
. Both Formcast and RPR rate the field within a few pounds. However, I have to say that I have Sarrsar well ahead of Breakheart by VDW, but I’m just a poor punter 
. A class 3 4yo+ handicap over 5f on good going, where over half the field on balance look to be in with a chance.
as this plan is so simple to operate, I mean if you have 4 losing bets staked 1, 2, 3, 4 and add another 1 aim for each losing bet you have a debit due of 14 points 
. There is no point in going over old ground so I am going to keep to the principle of the staking whilst changing the position of the column headings of the staking to find out if that is easier to understand.
. However, due to the interest shown and being at a loose end as the afternoon racing is rather poor I thought I might add some further advice on staking, which as you know I seldom do 