VDW + Staking for Billion

[billion]

A forum friend has sent me some staking plans used 50 years ago and still there remains a certain logic to the principles applied then as well as now.

I will offer up two such plans for debate and consideration.

Each plan is for

FORECAST FAVOURITES

The first 3 – 2- 1 plan is priced based: –

Odds On to Evens = 3 points

11/10 to 5/4 = 2 points

11/8 to 6/4 = 1 point

The second 3 – 2 – 1 plan is runner based: –

3 – 5 runners = 3 points

6 – 8 runners = 2 points

8 – 12 runners = 1 point

The simplicity is beautiful but if combined could it be possible to run 6 – 4 – 2

3 – 5 runners (Odds On – 1/1) = 6 points

6 – 8 runners (11/10 – 5/4) = 4 points

9 – 12 runners (11/8 – 6/4) = 2 points.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Will 3 – 2 – 1 work today (or even 6 – 4 – 2)

For a little Saturday fun: –

Beverley 3.45 5 runners = 3pts and the 6/4 FcSp = 1pt
GABRIAL = 4pts stake.

Cartmel 6.05 9 runners = 1pt and 10/11 FcSp = 3pts
ESCUDERO = 4pts stake

2nd

Cartmel 6.35 5 runners = 3pts and 11/8 = 1pt
HUCKING HERO = 4pts stake

Cartmel 8.15 4 runners = 3pts and 11/8 FcSp = 1pts
PISTOL NOIR = 4pts stake.

2nd

Could this idea make an ideal selection process for Rolling Doubles/MERDS?

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

This thread began as an illustration of the mechanics of the Van der Wheil staking plan for Billion, so I thought I might return to that theme, as Bill is not yet with it as far as I can tell . There is no point in going over old ground so I am going to keep to the principle of the staking whilst changing the position of the column headings of the staking to find out if that is easier to understand.

VDW wrote, “Readers may be interested in the method I have used for over 40 years (since 1938 then), which basically aims to ensure I point profit from each bet. Stakes are increased by 1 point each bet until the debit is reduced to zero. However, note that stakes should not exceed debit by more than 1 point.”

Proposed column headings for the betting book record:

Win Aim/Win Odds/Stake/Result/Debit/Bank £200

1-0-1-L-2-£199
3-0-2-L-5-£197
6-0-3-L-9-£194
10-0-4-L-14-£190
15-7/2-5-+17.5-0=£207.5

The above illustration is from my selections for Newmarket yesterday where 5.50 Bavarica won. In this instance employing level stakes would have resulted in 50p loss s whereas with the VDW staking plan a £7.50 profit ensues.

Starting from scratch today with a £200 bank to limit the potential risk of an adverse losing run I checked out the stars * for the Haydock 3.05 by £ class, consistency, Formcast, RPR.

1. 4* Crystal Capella – Stake £1(Lost -£1, debit due £2, bank £199)
2. non-runner
3. non-runner
4. 3* Ferdoos (3rd choice)(Won 4/1)
5. 2*
6. 2*
7. 0*
8. 0*
9. 0*
10. 3* Vita Nova (2nd choice)

[billion]

I am still going to pass on this one

Formath

.

I am sorry to say I have done all the battles I am going to do and am simply unwilling to put this old brain of mine through the wringer again.

Let me just say there are 6 headings and 6 entries: –

Win Aim = 1

Won Odds = 0 (is this the odds of the selection?)

Stake = 1

Result = Lost

Debit = 2 (Now if only 1 (one) is staked how come this figure is 2

Bank = 199 (If the debit is 2 the bank must be 198 but I know only 1 has been lost and so 199 must be right so where does 2 come from?)

The next stake of 3 it is obvious = 1 + 2 (it is that rotten 2 again and my brain is starting to get stressed and simply does not want to accept this problem and refuses to focus.

I very much hope others will gain from your perseverance but already I am starting to get a headache.

Honest!

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,
You really are a hopeless case as this plan is so simple to operate, I mean if you have 4 losing bets staked 1, 2, 3, 4 and add another 1 aim for each losing bet you have a debit due of 14 points

Win Odds = This column just shows winning odds as losing odds are of no interest.
Debit = 2. That is the Win Aim 1 point + 1 point stake lost
Bank = £199 is because only the £1 stake was lost. Perhaps the ‘debit’ column should be renamed the ‘due’ column as it is the debit due required.

[billion]

My wife will agree with you

Formath

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,
You may recall at the start of this thread the aim was to establish a losing run to be able to illustrate the mechanics of the VDW staking plan, and IMO we could very well further that aim with this race at Nottingham today . A class 3 4yo+ handicap over 5f on good going, where over half the field on balance look to be in with a chance.

Nottingham 2.05

1. 2*
2. 2* Humidor (my 2nd choice)
3. 0*
4. 0*
5. 1*
6. 1*
7. 0*
8. 2*
9. 2*
10.2* Skylla (my 3rd choice)
11. 2* Rocket Rob – £2 stake (2nd bet lost – win aim £3, -£2 stake, debit due £5, bank £197).

[Pompete]

Bill

I’ve got a VDW Staking Plan spreadsheet you can have and play around with if you want to.

Personally I no longer use it but that is only because I back a number of selections in each race and now use level stakes. Drop us a PM if you want it.

As

Formath

says it really is simple when you get the hang of it.

[billion]

I really thought I had wriggled out of this one

Pompete

having done battle with it for several hours only to end up frustrated and with a headache.

I cannot turn down your generous offer and not give it one more go, thank you and will be sending you my email address which I guess is what you require.

Billy's Outback Shack

[MrE]

the words "candy" and "baby" spring to mind….. I’ll bet tipsters love you Billy Un…..

MrE

[billion]

MrE

From one old codger to another I enjoy your sense of humour and am glad I can bring a smile to your face.

I keep on saying I am a fun better with very, very, very small stakes, I never win much and I never lose much either but I try to enjoy life as best I can.

"Always look on the bright side of life"

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Redcar 4.10 The Zetland Gold Cup a race that could increase our losing run . Both Formcast and RPR rate the field within a few pounds. However, I have to say that I have Sarrsar well ahead of Breakheart by VDW, but I’m just a poor punter

1. 1*
2. 2*
3. 2*
4. 2*
5. 4* Sarrsar – £3 stake (bet 3 lost, win aim 6, -£3 stake, debit due £9, bank £194)
6. 2*
7. 2*
8. 3* Arlequin (my 3rd choice with a negative draw to overcome)
9. 3*
10. 2*
11. 2*
12. 3* Breakheart (my 2nd choice)
13. 3*
14. 0*
15. 0*

[billion]

I have my fingers crossed

Formath

, good luck.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

It looks like there is a good chance of sustaining the losing run today .

Leicester 3.15
1. 2* Azameera (my 3rd choice)(won 10/3)
2. 4* Menadati – Bet 4 £4 stake(Bet 4 lost, win aim £10, -£4 stake, debit due £14, bank £190)
3. 3* Elusivity (my 2nd choice)
4. 2*
5. 1*
6. Non-runner
7. 0*
8. 1*
9. 2*
10. 0*

[Formath]

Just to keep the sequence going. A class 3 4yo+ sprint hcap over 6f on G – miss the break and you have done your cash.

Ripon 8.10

1. 2* Noverre To Go
2. 1*
3. 1*
4. 2*
5. 0*
6. 2*
7. 2*
8. Non-runner
9. 1*
10. 3* Coolminx (my 2nd choice)
11. 4* Pepper Lane £5 stake
12. 2*
13. 1*
14. 1*
15. 0*
16. Non-runner
17. 1*

[billion]

Formath.

Life sometimes sucks!

Don’t lose the faith and hang in there.

P.S. you are in good company, after all where is

MrE

and is there any truth he has emigrated to Australia?

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

.
Missed posting yesterday but it lost anyway This one tonight Formcast and RPR rate vey tight so anything could pop up.

Goodwood 6.45

1. 4* Bramalea – £6 stake (win aim £21, -£6 stake, debit due £27, bank £179
2. 2*
3. 3* New Code (my 2nd choice)
4. 2*
5. 3*
6. 3* Porgy (my 3rd choice)(won 8/1)
7. 2*
8. 2*

[Author]

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