VDW + Staking for Billion

[billion]

I know what a crafty old fox you are

Formath

and I would take a punt you staked all 3 and landed the 8/1 winner.

Did you?

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,
Absolutely not, this is a paper trading exercise showing the mechanics of the VDW staking plan – but we could do with a few winners now

Perth 4.30

1. 2*
2. 3*
3. 4* Logans Run £7 stake (Bet 7 lost, win aim £28,-£7 stake, debit due £35, bank £172)
4. 3* Sonny Mullen (my 3rd choice)(4/1 won)
5. 2*
6. 1*
7. 0*
8. 2*
9. Non-runner
10. 3* Badger Foot (my 2nd choice)

[billion]

Interesting race this one

Formath

where I agree with Logans Run but had 2nd & 3rd choices the other way round.

When I looked at the prices (thinking of dutching the 3) I could not make it of any value.

Logans Run 5/1
Sonny Mullen 6/1
Badgerfoot 11/4

These were early prices and may have changes since but if you were dutching all 3, how would you have staked them?

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,
I am not sure how relevant it is but my aim is to clear £100 on the winner, so at the odds quoted to the nearest fiver above any odd amounts:

Logans Run £20 (5/1)
Sonny Mullen £20 (6/1)
Badger Foot £40 (11/4)

NB: As you are aware I would not consider any betting any runner shorter than odds of 2/1 and no bet if the 3 to be staked exceed
£100 in total.

[billion]

Thanks for the reply (again)

Formath

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Pontefract 7.30

1. 4* Foxtrot Hotel £8 stake (Bet 8 lost, win aim£36, -£8 stake, debit due £44, bank £164)
2. 2*
3. 2*
4. 3* King Ferdinand (my 3rd choice)
5. 0*
6. 1*
7. 4* Jade (my 2nd choice)

[Formath]

The staking plan is going great guns but the selections leave a lot to be desired . This being the case I am changing tack with the selection system to the adjustment for the Flat advised by VDW. This entails dropping the ratings of Formcast and RPR and replacing them with speed figures – best recorded SF, best SF weight adjusted, Topspeed thus giving a maximum of 5* for any runner:

Salisbury 4.30

1. 2*
2. 3* Goldtrek (my 3rd choice)
3. 0*
4. 2*
5. 3* Isolate (my 2nd choice)
6. 5* Itishaara (£9 stake)
7. 2*
8. 1*

[billion]

Formath

Have you ever used ATR Speed Ratings, Lawrence Taylor?

Have just changed my figs with Taylor’s replacing Formcast and have LOVE OVER GOLD top and ISOLATE & ITSISHAARA joint next best.

Where the heck did that one come from?

Billy's Outback Shack

[Hatter]

Hi all

Had a few days away due to new Mrs Hat prefers me to spend time with her on her kids hols.
Back to the fray of staking – think i followed whats been said.
What i have seen so far is purely VDW recently – correct me if i am wrong pls.

So i m going to guess at Formaths plan for today
We have an aim of £55 based on the £1 stake start.
We will be betting £10 & our bank is now reduced to £145

I don’t think we are playing on the staircase just yet & wonder how it would have fitted in as per my old posts.
We’d be looking at a heavier debit in my opinion to try to recover & only 3 steps left to do it

Just to confuse the issue what will happen when we have a winner – (or if)
According to George (i think) VDW then had a cunning (complicated) plan to add a new formula – (eek) to reduce stakes as our aim & stakes are moving farther away gradually.
We started off trying to get a 6/4 shot & are now up to 9/2 to profit.
Or are we just staving off the days as was said when it can’t work unless we have a high strike rate.

As to your comment about Timeform selections Billion
I had my fingers burnt many times in my younger days following their tips so reluctant to chance them again

Anyways – food for thought

[Formath]

Late today so just the barebones sticking to 5* maximum

Haydock 3.20

1. 3* Classic Vintage (my 3rd choice)
2. 4* Dansili Dancer £10 stake
3. Non-runner
4. 2*
5. 1*
6. 0*
7. 2*
8. 4* Mister Angry (my 2nd choice)
9. 3*

[Formath]

Is anyone staying the course with me even though it is rather boring? . A losing run of 10, which is not unusual at all and being with fillies today may not improve matters. Perhaps we should take a hint from Zarooni or Gosden:

Newbury 3.05

1. 1*
2. 3* Fanny May (my 3rd choice)
3. 2*
4. 4* Imperial Pippin (my 2nd choice)
5. 1*
6. 1*
7. 1*
8. 5* Poplin £11 stake
9. 1*

[billion]

Formath

, my heart bleeds for you.

I looked at this race last evening and my 1.2.3 never included RUMH either.

However, you swerved away from Formcast (which I could not use last evening) and let me say: –

RUMH – 78

IMPERIAL PIPPIN – 77

D. Mail FcSp – RUMH as favourite and IMPERIAL PIPPIN second favourite.

The clues were all bloomin’ there and the SFC paid £13

Do I end with

or sign off with

Billy's Outback Shack

[GeorgeJ]

Hatter

Formath is indeed providing us with an excellent illustration of the dangers of VDW’s staking strategy. If I’ve followed correctly, he has now had 11 losers, so starting from 1 point on the first he has now lost 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11 = 66 points and he has yet to win the notional 1 point a bet target for the strategy, ie at the moment, from the perspective of the strategy he is down 77 points (66 points actually lost, 11 notional).

The next stake is 12 points and to clear the actual loss and generate the target of the strategy 12 points profit after 12 bets, a winner at 13/2 is required – to a 12 point bet that will of course return a profit of 78 points, exactly what is needed. (If Formath is unsuccessful with his next bet, he’ll then be down 78 points plus 12 notional ones and on the 13th bet will be aiming for a 91 point profit from a 13 point stake, ie a 7/1 winner, to clear the account.)

Let’s suppose that today Formath finds a 4/1 winner. From a stake of 12 points that will obviously return 48 points profit. But from the perspective of the VDW strategy that still leaves him 18 points actually down (the 66 lost so far less the 48 won on the 4/1 shot) and he hasn’t yet made the 1 point a bet profit for the series, ie is down 12 notional points.

So on the 13th bet, the aim is now to clear 31 points (recover the 18 points actually lost to date, and the 13 points needed to meet the point a bet objective). What VDW recommends here is continuing with the progression, ie the 13th bet would be 13 points, but of course the account would be cleared with a 5/2 winner.

But let’s suppose that, while he is again successful, this time Formath secures a 2/1 winner. That, for a 13 point stake, returns him 26 points profit. So now he has recovered the 18 points he has actually lost to date and is 8 points up in cash terms. But of course he has only made 8 points on the series, not the 13 points that was the aim, so he is a notional 5 points short.

Here, VDW would not continue with the progressive staking for the 14th bet. The aim of that bet would be to clear 6 points (the 5 points needed to achieve the 13 point profit aim for the first 13 bets and of course the 1 point needed to meet the aim for the 14th bet). Rather than stake 14 points, VDW would reduce to 6 points for this bet, and if it lost would progress a point a bet (ie the 15th bet would be 7 points) until another winner (which could theoretically close the series account, lead to a continuation of the progression or lead to a reduction in the stake, depending on its price).

[billion]

There!

I knew this plan was quite simple and it was not me being a "thicko"

Billy's Outback Shack

[Hatter]

Thanks to both George & Formath
& me thicko mate Billion for following it (his words btw)

Cheers to Formath for running the system
& Georges patient explanations in the face of blanks staring back.
I do believe it is actually sinking in slowly & hope that i will have enough funds left to try it out one day

We wait for that winner to double confirm the ‘process’

All the best

Then we can move on to mixing with the staircase at Bills request
Once i have unravelled Mr E’s latest grenade about removing some of the steps

[Hatter]

Oh & another thing as per Mr Colombo

Why stop at 13 – unlucky for some ?

[Formath]

"Keep right on to the end of the road", as the old song goes , not much else to do really, BUT I have included a star* for the first 5/6 in the betting making a maximum of six*, it could make all the difference .

Sandown 3.30

1. 1*
2. 2*
3. 4*
4. 4* Move In Time (my 3rd choice)
5. 1*
6. 0*
7. Non-runner
8. 4* Margot Did (my 2nd choice)
9. 6* Night Carnation – £12 stake
10. 0*

[Author]

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