VDW + Staking for Billion

[Formath]

Bill,
It should always have been 4* I will spell it all out as VDW would say

1. Select the most valuable race on the card from the principal meeting.
2. Consider next most valuable.
3. Select most valuable race from other cards.
4. Rate entire field for ability (prize money won to date in £100’s divided by number of races won and star the top 3).
5. Select the 3 most consistent from top 5 in betting forcast from non-handicap races and top 6 in handicap races.
6. Apply selected rating method to entire field (top 3 rated by Daily Mail Formcast including joint-rated).

(later in the correspondence to the SCHB Sports Forum he advised using a second rating method to help confirm the selections so take say RPR as per 6. above).

So, for star ratings we have:
Top 3 £ class from the field.
Top 3 most consistent form their past 3 outings where they finished from 5/6 at short end of betting forecast.
Top 3 Formcast including any joint rated from the field.
Top 3 RPR including any joint rated from the field.

(I only consider races with winning form, as much as possible, in the past 3 outings).

So you see Bill you can finish with more than 3 runners
attaining stars but the maximum is 4* and splitting I opt for the one at the shortest price. Are you with the program now?

THIS THREAD IS NOT ABOUT THE VAN DER WHEIL METHODOLOGY IT IS JUST TO ILLUSTRATE THE STAKING PLAN HE ADVISED.

[billion]

Of course it is about VDW

Formath

and why not.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,

Going off topic slightly for a bit of fun as I am at a loose end with no serious interest today I have ‘done’ the Lingfield card as per VDW sort-of

Lingfield
2.10 Jack’s Revenge
2.40 A Little Bit Dusty
3.10 Rosewood Lad
3.45 Bollywood Style
4.20 Rosambo
4.55 Queen Of The Desert
5.25 Very Well Red

[billion]

Well done

Formath

Four from seven, very impressive indeed.

Ditch the "big" races and make your mark "in the dirt"

Billy's Outback Shack

[Hatter]

WD Formath

Forget the staking plan just tip 4 out of 7 every day & the steaks will work themselves out

[Formath]

Folkestone 4.10

1. 2*
2. 3*
3. 2*
4. 4* Victory Gunner stake £3

5. 4*
6. 1*
7. 1*

[billion]

Good afternoon

Formath

I am still working on my education and just as when, all those years ago, at school, the penny never would drop firt time.

On the bright side when it does drop (never too long) all becomes clear.

My adaption of selection is Get Ready to Go Folk. 3.40 (9/2 available)

That is by the by and if I may would refer back to the staking as described within the "DESTROY" thread and all is not perhaps so clear regarding your description, (it could be you or it could be me and maybe it could be both of us) and if possible like to run through the rules again.

Stakes – start at 1 point and increase by 1 point following each loss.

Bet 1 = 1pt = loss = debt of 1pt

Bet 2 = 2pt (stake) = loss = debt of 3pts.

Bet 3 = 3pt stake = loss = debt of 6 pts.

Bet 4 = 4pts = Won @ 2/1 = 8pt bet profit (less 6pt debt = 2pts credit).

Do we restart the sequence at 1pt or carry foreward a debt of 2 points being a deduction of 2 from 4 bets?

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,

I feel like a renegade, a traitor to my VDW staking thread cause , but I have to know was it the start of a purple patch given my own lousy record on the AW tracks

Selected by minimal VDW factors:

Wolverhampton

2.30 Grey Boy
3.00 Blue Cossack
3.30 Ridley Didley
4.00 Setter’s Princess
4.30 Far View
5.00 Steel City Boy
5.30 Avonrose
6.00 Covert Decree

[Formath]

Bill,

The aim is to win 1 point on every bet (1 point has to be added each bet to the debit column for this). The staking progression starts at 1 point and is increased by another point for every losing bet. When a win bet 1 point less than the return is deducted from the debit. If the debit column is then 0 the next stake is 1 point to start another progression. If there is still a debit then the next stake is 1 point more than the debit figure.

Bet/result/stake/return/debit/credit

1. L -1 0 2
2. L -2 0 5
3. L -3 0 9
4. 2/1 4 +8 2 (7pts deducted from the 9 debit)credit = 2 pts
5. ? 3

[billion]

Okay

Formath

, I have just been back to "DESTROY" and read it again (and again) and think VDW is saying: –

Bet 5 should still continue the sequence and be staked at 5 points because a profit of 1pt has not been achieved for the number of bets in the sequence.

After 4 bets there is only a profit of 2 NOT 4, i.e. 1 point for each bet.

Which in fact does mean your advice is correct, an improved strike rate is required because with my SR I shall soon be very deep in the Brown Stuff.

My conclusion is this staking plan is most suitable for say up to 20% SR, which therefore is ideal for the VDW selection process you describe.

It is wholly unsuitable for a SR lower than say 20% because of the escalation of stakes and if the selection process is aimed at the longshot outsiders then something similar to that I described should be considered: –

Level (minimum) stake which should only be increased after a win or when the bank is in profit. I have suggested a day when profit is made but then reduced slowly down to the minimum level stake. Like buses, winners can come along close together or as some may say when you are HOT!

The other staking plan being never to allow the ongoing stakes to fall below the sequence average and again more suitable for consideration with a lower SR.

I hope you will agree with me when I say Staking Plans can possibly create chaos when not used appropriately and therefore should be tailored in accord with the style of selection.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Well done

Formath

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

11/4 then 3/1 @ Wolv’s – keep on like this

Formath

and you will become a legend

I did not expect VDW to find the 50/1 winner

I am starting to get really interested now!

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

Folkestone 4.10

1. 2*
2. 3*
3. 2*
4. 4* Victory Gunner stake £3
5. 4*
6. 1*
7. 1*

Very well done, Formath…I’m most impressed; you got the forecast (£14.75) as well

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[billion]

Brain storming time again

Formath

A question of Class.

If the race is a CHASE and when checking the class (i.e. winnings) and this is shown in accord with say Life Time winnings and earnings

Hurdle – winnings and earnings

Chase – winnings and earnings

MY LOGIC suggests to me only CHASE winnings should be divided by number of runs.

or

Do place earnings count and should Hurdle winnings etc be given consideration

What a complex charator this VDW chappie was

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,

This is from a VDW article in the SCHB Sports Forum from April 18, 1981:

"To obtain the rating (£ class) it is necessary to use the total number of wins and total winning sum. Using the present seasons figures will not give thr true rating. For the purpose of a rating figure you can round up or down, but do not confuse issues by leaving odd fractions which are not necessary."

So the answer is to use lifetime winnings divided by lifetime wins to give a rating in £100’s.

[billion]

So, we are looking for Lifetime figs. regardless of how it has been won.

Is that interpretation correct

Formath?

I think for Flat Turf racing this is fine but believe taking say Point to Point/Bumper/Hurdles into consideration for a Chase race is somewhat dubious but if that is VDW’s way it is hard to arhue.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,

Yes, that is the correct interpretation

Ludlow 4.00

1. 2*
2. 2*
3. 1*
4. 0*
5. 2*
6. 3* Isn’t That Lucky stake £1

7. 3*
8. 3*
9. 2*

[Author]

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