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It would be nice to see Hala Bek fulfill his potential but it is asking almost the impossible IMO. He’s been off two years now, thats a hell of a long time to be out injured I can’t see the horse hitting Group 1 heights now.
I hope I’m wrong, however.
Would like to see hala bek build on the enormous potential he once looked to possess.
Given that he’s now with Godolphin I wouldn’t suggest you hold your breath mate.
Flash, while I agree with the rest of your post I don’t think that this point is particularly valid:
He’s also been beaten too many times at this stage of his career for a potential top class three year old.
To use but one example, Generous ran seven times before the Derby and won only three of those. So it is entirely possible for a horse who doesn’t have an outstanding wins:runs ratio to develop into a high class performer once he matures and/or is stepped up in trip.
I take your point entirely and what you say about Generous is correct. It isn’t impossible for Curtain Call to be similar to Generous but I would say its unusual for a horse with so many prior defeats to turn into a top class three year old. It happens but it isn’t really the norm.
I can also take Bulwarks points and Luca Cumani clearly holds Curtain call in high regard and Cumani is nobody’s fool.
I wouldn’t lay Curtain Call but I would be a bit disappointed if he were to win. I don’t think he’d win a good Derby. At this stage (far too early to say perhaps) it doesn’t look as though its going to be a great Derby.
I agree he is the worst value of anything in the race. He’s also been beaten too many times at this stage of his career for a potential top class three year old. his price should be worked out based on his 2yo form because his three runner win was a joke Drill Sergeant is a nothing horse at any sort of level.
Curtain Call on form should be double figures.
Casual Conquest, Tajaaweed, Frozen Fire and Tartan Bearer, surely the winner must come from those four?
Henry won’t run, Doctor Fremantle has been beaten in a handicap and the rest I wouldn’t consider at all.
Personal preference for Tartan Bearer – has the profile for a Derby winner, will improve for the step up in trip, has the right trainer / jockey combination and has won the best of the trials.
Wouldn’t surprise me if any of the four I’ve shortlisted win though. Would be disappointed if Curtain Call wins.
Dont knock it DJ just lump on.
She didnt just win at Haydock she was a completely different league. 5/1 is a great price.
Aye Flash but Henry WAS there and New Approach was well and truly circumnavigated.
Lol Indeed he was.
Very impressive Henrythenavigator, he’ll take some beating on decent ground.
Its easy to knock New Approach but lets not forget he’s still finished second in two Guineas thats hardly a failure. He’s just not as good over a mile on fast ground as Henrythenavigator simple as that. No Henry and New Approach would’ve won two Guineas with a gap back to the second on both ocassions and would still be being hailed as a superstar.
I applaud O’Brien’s willingness to consider Epsom. The attitude of some of his fellow trainers has been awful IMO, Good on you Aidan – there is ONE real Derby.
Would love to see Henrythenavigator win the Derby. Yes he might fail to stay but winning Guineas and the Derby creates legends and you have to admire O’Brien if he does send Henry there.
In The Racing Post’s Verdict for this race it says [i:3kce9am8]’it is possible that [New Approach] was prepared for his first Classic assignment with a prolonged campaign in mind, and may have a little more potential for improvement than a rival who looked very well tuned for the day’.[/i:3kce9am8]
I’m confused: have they got the names mixed-up? I’m not saying that he’s wrong but it’s the opposite of the general consensus.
Sounds like putting two and two together and coming up with five to me.
Those two in the Guineas were ready to run for their lives, you don’t win a Guineas 80% fit.
I think sometimes people just try and second guess a bit too much and and come to their own conclusions when there isn’t really any conclusion to draw other than bare fact.
Looks a poor quality race for a Guineas. Nahoodh ought to win even if reproducing nothing better than her unlucky Newmarket form.
Obviously Henry is the professional and i’m just an amateur guesser but if Twice Over is over his blood problem, I think The Derby should be his next race. He’s already proved he’s good over ten furlongs and to my eye looked to be staying on at York in the Dante. Can’t see him being at his best at a mile.
Completely agree. Seems odd that the Derby was the target after he missed the Guineas for it then after a "health problem" he’s suddenly dropping back to a mile.
I’d be inclined to send him to Epsom with a nothing to lose attitude. After the horse’s defeat at York the pressure is off somewhat yet if there was a genuine health reason for his defeat there’s surely no reason to suddenly rule him out as a Derby horse.
Am I missing something?
OK you win MP..my last post, thanks to the good people of the forum for the last few years, its not what it used to be anymore.
Over and Out.
Totally agree CR.
When the forum becomes a board for one person complaining about how jockeys rode their losers, and another for forcing opinions down our throats about value when he has failed to price any race accurately without using someone else’s prices, then it becomes a laughing stock.
The Betfair forum seems quite attractive in comparison!A forum gets its reputation from members not abusing other members.
You don’t have to read it if you thinkl that Reet. Not forcing anything, it is when some know they have lost the arguement, they get abusive. Have told you I give my tips on another forum and do not want to or have the time to do it here. Have even PM’d Reet with the name of said site so proven my ability to do exactly what he says I have not done here. I can give anyone the proof if wanted.Why do you say I use someone elses prices Reet? I do not use anyones prices!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Give evidence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You can not!!!!!!!! What does that make you Reet????? Think you should take that back!!!!!!
The reason I like this forum so much is it has knowledgeable members who are interested in racing not betting.
Ginge
Ginge how the hell can you say that when all you constantly go on about is a horses percentage chance of winning? Pretty much all your analysis of a race is on the back of percentage and value – that is betting orientated. You show little interest on the racing side in any other form.
Anyone think Young Mick is a big price? If the field stayed at eight he’d be a cracking each way bet.
But then – what do I know?
Which gave him a rating thirty odd pounds higher than todays winners previous and he’d already won over the trip.
You cant really compare a 2yo 1m2f race to a 3yo 1m2f race, as generally most of the horses who will go for the 1m2f 2yo races are absolute garbage full of staying hopefuls or shorter trip failures/unimpressive sorts. Usually 1mile is where you would want a decent middle distance sort to be running at the end of their 2yo campaigns imo. IMo a lot of good 1m2f colts will be running at 7f very well at 2, and that is probably were you will get the equivalent belnd of speed and stamina.
Maybe, maybe not Bulwark but you find me one thing in the form book that pointed to that result. Who would’ve laid Twice Over heavily?
Well done Young Mick.
Flash – I think Twice over was a ridiculous price today, and his only strong piece of form was outstaying a non-stayer.
Casual Conquest takes a lot of beating if he lines up now.Whay happened Centennial? very disappointing.
Seems McCartney will in fact need a softer surface (
LGR). His action is quite round and you could see that quite some way out he wasn’t going to win.Which gave him a rating thirty odd pounds higher than todays winners previous and he’d already won over the trip. Come on. Any horse that gets beaten you can always find a way to reason it afterwards but where on earth was there anything at all that said Twice Over wouldn’t beat Tartan Bearer today? Unless you completely ignore everything and just plump for a favourite jockey or trainer every bit of logic suggested Twice Over would rout these.
The ground? No I can’t have that as an excuse. That said I haven’t a clue how to explain that result.
Agree about the price though, I don’t do odds on at all.
LGR). His action is quite round and you could see that quite some way out he wasn’t going to win.