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Lush Lashes is likely to represent excellent value against the ‘sexier’ O’Brien and Gosden runners. She’ll be well suited by the extra 2f and her form is in a different parish to what the others have achieved. For me she has as much scope to become a leading middle-distance filly as anything else in the field and should be around a 7/4 shot.
I have already backed Lush Lashes for the Oaks and although I think she should get tomorrows trip, Im not 100% that she’ll get the Oaks. One who may be overpriced on a gd-fm surface is the Kirk filly Comeback Queen, was very impressed by how she finished off in the masaka stakes at kempton, IMO she looked like a horse who would be a higher class than that field over further. Bearing in mind that she has been training for tomorrows race since that run, is reportedly in form and has everything looking to be in her favour for a good run, she would look overpriced at 18-1
Have done my tissue on this.
Despite backing Dar Re Mi for the Oaks at 16/1 I make Lush Lashes favourite tomorrow. Staying on 6th (only 2 lengths behind the winner) looks the best form by some way. Running and bred as though will be suited by further. And probably won’t have to improve to win an average running of the Musidora anyway. Around 7/2 on Betfair looks too big, I make her a 9/4 shot.Value Is EverythingOn all known form its impossible to say Lush Lashes has 2 serious rivals in the race. Thats makes the 3/1 on Betfair good value imo.
With Dae Re Mi likely to make it a decent clip, I like the look of crual sea at a big price.
I think the Brian Meehan horse that Dar Re Mi beat at Sandown is pretty decent, so the form of that race can’t be too bad, but surely nothing can touch Lush Lashes on her 1000 Guineas run? A staying-on sixth to a horse who, on Sunday’s Pouliches, isn’t too far behind Zarkava, with a handful of decent fillies filling in the two-length gap…I think ‘nailed on’ is the appropriate phrase.
Agree that Lush Lashes represents the best ‘form’ of the race, but her proximity to Natagora was over 8F, not 10F. Despite a general feeling she’ll stay (and I think she will) we’ve no evidence she will.
Like MP, I was impressed with the ‘Lord’s’ filly at Sandown but I’m against her for a few reasons. Firstly, unless Gosden’s had a winner today, he’s only had 1 winner from his last 30 runners. Secondly, I thought she got a very easy lead at Sandown and was allowed to dictate a slow pace before sprinting clear. I think there was a handicap at Sandown on the same day over the same distance that produced a time 2 or 3 seconds quicker. However, it’s hard to work out who will try and lead tomorrow so she may get to do so again.
Cruel Sea’s win last season had the Lingfield Oaks’ trial winner in third and Hills’ filly ran a good race at Newmarket despite not settling.
If there’s money for the O’Brien and Gosden fillies then maybe Lush Lashes will drift and we’ll get an even bigger price; but with so many uncertainties in the race I’ll probably go for two bigger priced horses.
Cruel Sea is currently 13.5 on Betfair and Stoute’s horse at 15 are big prices.
Those two for me.
Id consider giving Cruel sea another go as it is entirely possible that she has been beaten by a slow pace on gd-fm conditions last time out, and a greater test of stamina is maybe what she is after. If she is expected to win the money will come in for her.
Ive already mentioned Comeback Queen and I think she has evry chance of getting amongst the finish, would be a great victory for a small yard and for Nayef if she were to do so. 47-1 on betfair is an insult IMO.
Moonstone had the option of going for the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas tomorrow, where surely the ground would have been more suitable for her, so either O’brien just wants to run her in better company for the expeience or whether he really fancies her to win on ground that I wouldnt expect to be in her favour, Im not sure.
Dar Re Mi I just dont see winning this, she looked well last time, but IMO beat nothing (3yo maidens where most of the field havent ran before are usually very poor and think it looked like gosden hand picked such a weak race and sent this one primed for a facile victory and her position at the head of the oaks market was a knee jerk reaction from that run), and it was the fact that she looked so well last time that I find it hard to see where the improvement will come from plus I don’t think the ground is in her favour. At 9/4 I would be fairly surpised if she wins.
Lush Lashes also had the option of the Blue Wind, but should be suited to the conditions at york and as has already been said she is the one to beat on all known form. She did throw in a howler as the season kicked off but Bolger was out of form back then and both her and saoirse abu appear to have left that form behind them.
Cape Amber has had a big reputation since the start of the season, but has apparently had trouble in training, so it is hard to fancy her at her price, however there is the aspect that they could have saved her for the swettenham to give her more time.
Stoute usually has his horses close to 100% for trials, and he has already won the dee stakes and the chester vase last week, and he has won this race 3 times out of the last 6 runnings, it is hard to believe he has a lightly raced daughter of kingmambo running at a price of 20-1, on ground that should suit, perhaps that is merely an indication of how classy this race is.
Cant really see brittains staying well enough to be comepetitive even on this ground.
Lush Lashes 3-1 and Comeback Queen E/W @22-1 (47s on betfair) IMO, but worth keeping an eye on Stoute’s and Hill’s in the betting
Cruel Sea pulled quite hard early in the Pretty Polly, and is not really bred to get the distance either. Mizzen Mast (sire) seems to be an influence of speed more than stamina, and dam won at 6 and 7f. However, when I went around the stables at the Lambourn Open Day this filly was the 3 year old that stood out for me. According to a stable lad I know Barry Hills was (take it still is) adamant she will stay 1 1/2 miles. Will have to settle.
Value Is EverythingThansk for that, Reasonoverfaith, I hadn’t realised that the Guineas was run over a mile…
Pedigree says that Lush Lashes has a chance of staying ten furlongs, but her run behind Natagora suggests she’ll definitely stay – and racecourse evidence overwrites theory any day of the week.
If she’s 9/4 or anything close to tomorrow morning, you’d have to be mad not to back her.
Lush Lashes will get ten furlongs standing on her head…
Not only bred to get it, bred to improve at it.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingHow much would the 1,000 Guineas have taken out of Lush Lashes?
She is actually 7-4 on the local markets down here. I personally think … go figure!
How much would the 1,000 Guineas have taken out of Lush Lashes?
Thay is one possible negitive.
She is actually 7-4 on the local markets down here. I personally think … go figure!
What percentages do Aussie bookies work to Myles?
Value Is Everything
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