Forum Replies Created
- Posts
One side question.
Is it time we set tradition and history aside?
Trainers and owners are increasingly aware that Epsom is an undulating course that can put a big strain on a horses soundness. It may be a test but no owner wants their horse to come back injured, not able to run again that season. Epsom’s plan would be unlikely to be passed if it were a new course today.
What about revamping Newbury and having it there. Fairest course in the country.
Ginge
Ginge I will have to consider putting a contract out on you if you continue in this vein.
No it isn’t time to sweep aside history and tradition. The politicians have done their best to do that as it is we don’t want it in racing as well.
Epsom has been perfectly sufficient for over 200 years lets embrace what we have rather than destroy it.
Epsom didn’t wreck Mill Reef or Nijinsky or Sea Bird or Dancing Brave or Sir Ivor or Shergar or a whole host of others.
If trainers are so worried about their horses now how about encouraging breeding along the lines of stouteness and stamina rather than fragility and speed.
Problems grown out of seeds sown.
I find myself agreeing with Flash (in a way).
Bolger and the owners are absolute idiots if they do not run at Epsom.
The filly is well balanced. Sound and in form (may not be either come Irish Oaks time). Acts well on a sound surface which usually prevails more often in England than Ireland. And got the form to win it.Where we differ Flash, I hope Sheikh Mo does buy Lush Lashes, at least the great man (Mo not Flash) knows the Epsom Classics are worth winning.
Ginge
I was just about to befriend you Ginge till you said the Sheikh Mo thing. Now I feel we are destined to remain enemies.
Is everyone certain Lush Lashes will really get 12 furlongs? I’m not so certain. York isn’t the stiffest track and its an extra two furlongs.
Not saying she won’t but I wouldn’t say its a cast iron cert that she’ll be as good or better over twelve furlongs.
"batman":ysfoi1ys wrote: FLASH
Awful IMO, I hate people who belittle our classics. They are taking all the romance out of the sport.SEND THEM TO EPSOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just casue they aint going to Epsom doesnt mean they are belittling the classics, it’s Irish Trained so makes sense if not going to handle Epsom to win your Home Classic
Yes it does why not go for both?
It appears to be a new thing creeping in to "ignore Epsom or knock the Derby etc".
I don’t like it one bit.
With the step up to twelve furlongs likely to bring about further improvement, I can’t see Cape Amber getting anywhere near Lush Lashes at Epsom.
I don’t know what race John Francome was watching when he said they went too quick early on, as both Dar Re Mi and Lush Lashes were pulling quite hard, but it’s hard to fault the winner. A decent pace in the Oaks and she’s home.
As for the 1000 Guineas form I think this performance gives it a much-needed boost, though it wasn’t that bad to begin with (certainly not as bad as people are making out). Through Modern Look, who didn’t handle the quicker ground when fourth to Zarkava, Natagora isn’t all that far behind the Aga Khan filly, and the ‘bunching’ in behind comprised some talented animals – Spacious, Infallible (when dropped in trip) and Nahoodh.
What price the horse is now sold to Sheikh Mohammed or Princess Haya?
Please dont!
John Francome talks absolute rubbish. For an ex jockey its incredible really.
Phew, just realised there were 8 runners so I have managed to stem some of the financial bleeding at Mycenean Towers! I still wish changes in tactics would be announced beforehand to give punters the option of factoring this in. There is little doubt Dar Re Mi would struggle to beat a filly like Lush Lashes for toe given a false pace.
Anyway, what is it with Irish trainers like Weld and Bolger avoiding Epsom all of a sudden. They reckon Lush Lashes will avoid Epsom in favour of the Curragh. Not particularly sporting, coming hot on the heels of the Chines White defection.
Awful IMO, I hate people who belittle our classics. They are taking all the romance out of the sport.
SEND THEM TO EPSOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Delighted with Cape Amber’s run. Lush Lashes got first run today and had already had a run. Over an extra couple of furlongs with the ring rust gone I think Cape Amber has a big chance in the Oaks. Lush Lashes a worthy favourite however.
I expect Twice Over to hack up. Ten furlongs will suit more than the mile of the Craven. Henry has ground concerns – don’t they always?
York can be a funny track but you can ride this horse any way, that also has to be a plus, he’s uncomplicated and professional.
Flash,
Are there any more names you want to call me?Go on, get it off your chest if it makes you feel any better.
I may remind you that if I was someone who did not listen to others I would not know, or want to know about the "table".
Strange, that type of person reminds me of someone.
Ginge
No Ginge that will do for now mate.
You are blinkered. I don’t see anything wrong with that to a degree because in the punting game you have to have a strong belief in yourself and your abilities. If you don’t believe in yourself you will fail and whats more you have to be very strong minded.
I just wish you’d learn to curb that blinkered belief a little bit and recognise another point of view from time to time, thats all.
Now if its Ok with you I’m going for my tea now before you accuse me of running away from you again. After that its bed as I have a nightshift coming up.
Is that Ok mate?
It is no answer at all.
I have answered every question put to me.
Yet you can not because it is impossible to make a profit on your 7/1 bets (assuming level stakes) without winning more than 12.5% of said bets.
That is the crux of my arguement, yet you say you can without answering the question.
If you do make a profit, then by your selection method you have found a way of finding value without looking for it. But value is still what you have found.
Ginge
Ginge, if you’d get your head out of your backside for just one minute you will discover an answer. I’m sorry but I don’t have to give a reply that suits you. You asked me a question, I’ve given you an answer – I don’t consider what percentage I win at any one price because I don’t think that way – that is the answer, if you don’t like it I can’t help that.
Ginge why do you pompously feel the need to keep "educating us"?
We KNOW all about percentages and the value approach. Once again just to clarify – WE KNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Its just not for me and it ISN’T the only way of making money over time from backing racehorses. If you think it is you are wrong it isn’t.
Please Flash, read Young Mick’s post, it is clear not everyone knows everything like you do.
Assuming it is not just luck (putting more on one particular winner). How do you make a profit on your 7/1 bets without winning more than 12.5% of said bets? I am curious Flash and would love to know this way of yours, that lets you totally go against the laws of mathematics.
If you do not answer my question how can I begin to worhsip the Mighty Flash? If it is not the only way then show me how you do it, and answer my question.
Ginge
Ginge you are priceless you really are. You go on about me "knowing everything" yet you are the one constantly preaching your obvious holy grail concept of percentage, value and mathematics.
I’m not the only one by a long way as you can see from this thread. Its not how you bet that annoys people but more the fact that you keep going on about it talking down to people as if they don’t understand what you are talking about. If not all, most of us understand fully the concept but if we don’t wish to do things your way you appear to sneer as though everyone else is doing something wrong.
The answer to your question (because I know you’ll pick me up on it if I don’t answer it) – I don’t bet according to win a percentage on a particular price. I have a plus and minus column, I bet according to it, I stake what I need to achieve a particular profit on a bet. I bet selectively. Whilst you bet as often as you need to because of the value you find, I bet far more sparingly and selectively.
I don’t know whether you will believe me or not and if I’m being absolutely honest I’m not overly concerned whether you do or not as it makes no difference to me personally what you or any other individual believes but I have been doing it my way for three flat seasons now and three national hunt and I have made a profit and reached my yearly target on every occasion so far (which runs beginning May – end April). Now don’t get me wrong I don’t believe for a second that I have got this game cracked and I know at some point I’m going to have a poor year or two where I make losses its innevitable but at least (providing you believe what I say) it proves that it is possible to succeed another way other than the percentage / mathematical way.
But you still have not answered my question in bold type Flash. Unless you do I feel totally vindicated that you can not. I wondered how you were going to answer without answering Flash, nice try. If I remember right, the last time I came out with a similar question you ignored it stating you did not have the time. When it is obvious from the amount of posts, you do. It just goes to show, value is everything.
Ginge
Ginge I have answered it – I don’t work that way, I don’t do things that way so I don’t even consider what percentage of bets win on at any particular price.
If you don’t work that way it doesn’t cross your mind.
It may not be the answer you want – no doubt prefer a mathematical one – but nevertheless its an accurate answer. I did not ignore your question you just don’t like the answer – completely different thing. Your arrogance and closed mind may not allow you to recognise an answer but that is more your problem than mine.
By that "comment" Flash I take it you are unable to answer my question. Thought so.
Ginge
Read above Ginge. Thought wrong again obviously.
Why the patronism I don’t know.
I do have other things to do, answering every post of yours in double quick time isn’t top of my agenda.
Ginge why do you pompously feel the need to keep "educating us"?
We KNOW all about percentages and the value approach. Once again just to clarify – WE KNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Its just not for me and it ISN’T the only way of making money over time from backing racehorses. If you think it is you are wrong it isn’t.
Please Flash, read Young Mick’s post, it is clear not everyone knows everything like you do.
Assuming it is not just luck (putting more on one particular winner). How do you make a profit on your 7/1 bets without winning more than 12.5% of said bets? I am curious Flash and would love to know this way of yours, that lets you totally go against the laws of mathematics.
If you do not answer my question how can I begin to worhsip the Mighty Flash? If it is not the only way then show me how you do it, and answer my question.
Ginge
Ginge you are priceless you really are. You go on about me "knowing everything" yet you are the one constantly preaching your obvious holy grail concept of percentage, value and mathematics.
I’m not the only one by a long way as you can see from this thread. Its not how you bet that annoys people but more the fact that you keep going on about it talking down to people as if they don’t understand what you are talking about. If not all, most of us understand fully the concept but if we don’t wish to do things your way you appear to sneer as though everyone else is doing something wrong.
The answer to your question (because I know you’ll pick me up on it if I don’t answer it) – I don’t bet according to win a percentage on a particular price. I have a plus and minus column, I bet according to it, I stake what I need to achieve a particular profit on a bet. I bet selectively. Whilst you bet as often as you need to because of the value you find, I bet far more sparingly and selectively.
I don’t know whether you will believe me or not and if I’m being absolutely honest I’m not overly concerned whether you do or not as it makes no difference to me personally what you or any other individual believes but I have been doing it my way for three flat seasons now and three national hunt and I have made a profit and reached my yearly target on every occasion so far (which runs beginning May – end April). Now don’t get me wrong I don’t believe for a second that I have got this game cracked and I know at some point I’m going to have a poor year or two where I make losses its innevitable but at least (providing you believe what I say) it proves that it is possible to succeed another way other than the percentage / mathematical way.
clivex wrote:
FlashIf theres something on a thread which you consider to be bleedin obvious (or whatever)…why not read another thread?
This isnt set homework you know. Its not compulsory…
Not you again? Why tell me what to do? You can probably guess how much notice I will take.
If not you’re a little naive my friend, if so why the hell bother?.
Well if you are capable of ignoring my posts (as if im bothered…) then why do you get into to such a precious lather about Ginges?
Im baffled why all of this has touched such a nerve. Very odd
(no further comment).Flash
If theres something on a thread which you consider to be bleedin obvious (or whatever)…why not read another thread?
This isnt set homework you know. Its not compulsory…
Not you again? Why tell me what to do? You can probably guess how much notice I will take.
If not you’re a little naive my friend, if so why the hell bother?.
On the subject of Zarkava yes she was impressive but am I the only one that didn’t think she was quite as impressive as expected? Saying she made hard work of it is innacurate of course but it wasn’t as easy or as breathtaking a performance as I expected it to be. I don’t expect her to prove as good as the top colts on that performance.
