- This topic has 92 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 12 months ago by
.
- Posts
Ginge why do you pompously feel the need to keep "educating us"?
We KNOW all about percentages and the value approach. Once again just to clarify – WE KNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Its just not for me and it ISN’T the only way of making money over time from backing racehorses. If you think it is you are wrong it isn’t.
Please Flash, read Young Mick’s post, it is clear not everyone knows everything like you do.
Assuming it is not just luck (putting more on one particular winner). How do you make a profit on your 7/1 bets without winning more than 12.5% of said bets? I am curious Flash and would love to know this way of yours, that lets you totally go against the laws of mathematics.
If you do not answer my question how can I begin to worhsip the Mighty Flash? If it is not the only way then show me how you do it, and answer my question.
Ginge
Ginge you are priceless you really are. You go on about me "knowing everything" yet you are the one constantly preaching your obvious holy grail concept of percentage, value and mathematics.
I’m not the only one by a long way as you can see from this thread. Its not how you bet that annoys people but more the fact that you keep going on about it talking down to people as if they don’t understand what you are talking about. If not all, most of us understand fully the concept but if we don’t wish to do things your way you appear to sneer as though everyone else is doing something wrong.
The answer to your question (because I know you’ll pick me up on it if I don’t answer it) – I don’t bet according to win a percentage on a particular price. I have a plus and minus column, I bet according to it, I stake what I need to achieve a particular profit on a bet. I bet selectively. Whilst you bet as often as you need to because of the value you find, I bet far more sparingly and selectively.
I don’t know whether you will believe me or not and if I’m being absolutely honest I’m not overly concerned whether you do or not as it makes no difference to me personally what you or any other individual believes but I have been doing it my way for three flat seasons now and three national hunt and I have made a profit and reached my yearly target on every occasion so far (which runs beginning May – end April). Now don’t get me wrong I don’t believe for a second that I have got this game cracked and I know at some point I’m going to have a poor year or two where I make losses its innevitable but at least (providing you believe what I say) it proves that it is possible to succeed another way other than the percentage / mathematical way.
But you still have not answered my question, the one in bold type Flash. Unless you do I feel totally vindicated that you can not. I wondered how you were going to answer without answering Flash, nice try but people will see you are trying to avoid the question. If I remember right, the last time I came out with a similar question you ignored it stating you did not have the time. When it is obvious from the amount of posts, you do. It just goes to show, value is everything, if it wasn’t you would’ve answered.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingGinge why do you pompously feel the need to keep "educating us"?
We KNOW all about percentages and the value approach. Once again just to clarify – WE KNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Its just not for me and it ISN’T the only way of making money over time from backing racehorses. If you think it is you are wrong it isn’t.
Please Flash, read Young Mick’s post, it is clear not everyone knows everything like you do.
Assuming it is not just luck (putting more on one particular winner). How do you make a profit on your 7/1 bets without winning more than 12.5% of said bets? I am curious Flash and would love to know this way of yours, that lets you totally go against the laws of mathematics.
If you do not answer my question how can I begin to worhsip the Mighty Flash? If it is not the only way then show me how you do it, and answer my question.
Ginge
Ginge you are priceless you really are. You go on about me "knowing everything" yet you are the one constantly preaching your obvious holy grail concept of percentage, value and mathematics.
I’m not the only one by a long way as you can see from this thread. Its not how you bet that annoys people but more the fact that you keep going on about it talking down to people as if they don’t understand what you are talking about. If not all, most of us understand fully the concept but if we don’t wish to do things your way you appear to sneer as though everyone else is doing something wrong.
The answer to your question (because I know you’ll pick me up on it if I don’t answer it) – I don’t bet according to win a percentage on a particular price. I have a plus and minus column, I bet according to it, I stake what I need to achieve a particular profit on a bet. I bet selectively. Whilst you bet as often as you need to because of the value you find, I bet far more sparingly and selectively.
I don’t know whether you will believe me or not and if I’m being absolutely honest I’m not overly concerned whether you do or not as it makes no difference to me personally what you or any other individual believes but I have been doing it my way for three flat seasons now and three national hunt and I have made a profit and reached my yearly target on every occasion so far (which runs beginning May – end April). Now don’t get me wrong I don’t believe for a second that I have got this game cracked and I know at some point I’m going to have a poor year or two where I make losses its innevitable but at least (providing you believe what I say) it proves that it is possible to succeed another way other than the percentage / mathematical way.
But you still have not answered my question in bold type Flash. Unless you do I feel totally vindicated that you can not. I wondered how you were going to answer without answering Flash, nice try. If I remember right, the last time I came out with a similar question you ignored it stating you did not have the time. When it is obvious from the amount of posts, you do. It just goes to show, value is everything.
Ginge
Ginge I have answered it – I don’t work that way, I don’t do things that way so I don’t even consider what percentage of bets win on at any particular price.
If you don’t work that way it doesn’t cross your mind.
It may not be the answer you want – no doubt prefer a mathematical one – but nevertheless its an accurate answer. I did not ignore your question you just don’t like the answer – completely different thing. Your arrogance and closed mind may not allow you to recognise an answer but that is more your problem than mine.
It is no answer at all.
I have answered every question put to me.
Yet you can not because it is impossible to make a profit on your 7/1 bets (assuming level stakes) without winning more than 12.5% of said bets.
That is the crux of my arguement, yet you say you can without answering the question.
If you do make a profit, then by your selection method you have found a way of finding value without looking for it. But value is still what you have found.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingGinge
It is obvious and simplistic to say that if you only bet horses at 7/1 to make a profit you would have to win more than 12.5% of the time. However there are people (believe it or not) who make it pay without having to resort to making a book or resorting to mathematical probablities to two decimal places. You are obviously very comfortable and confident in your way of doing things and making your own book is imperative to your stated success but even doing it your way doesn’t guarantee success if your book is incorrect or if your basic form reading is wild of the mark. As mentioned previously and not wholly replied to if you take a sample of 100 horses all priced at an SP of 7/1.
In your book you have the following
40 should be 10/1
40 should be 5/1
20 should be 7/1I’m assuming that you would bet the 40 horses you think should be 5/1, not bet the 40 at 10/1 and I’m not sure about the other 20 but that is immaterial.
Horses returned at an SP of 7/1 should win 12.5% of the time and therefore lose 87.5% of the time. Is it not beyond the realms of possibility that all the 40 you backed could lose ? And whose to say that this couldn’t happen time and time again ? If you can’t pick the winners then you can’t make a profit. The way you claim you make a profit is by being able to produce your book correctly and applying the maths after. If you don’t produce your book correctly it could prove dangerous to your bank balance.
As others have stated there are other ways to do things and possibly with not quite so much effort and a little less turnover and they are quite within their rights (as you are) to say so. Unfortunately IMHO you come across occasionally, using a religious connotation here , as a bit of an extremist ( my way is the only way ) and that usually rubs people, well Flash anyway
up the wrong way.It is no answer at all.
I have answered every question put to me.
Yet you can not because it is impossible to make a profit on your 7/1 bets (assuming level stakes) without winning more than 12.5% of said bets.
That is the crux of my arguement, yet you say you can without answering the question.
If you do make a profit, then by your selection method you have found a way of finding value without looking for it. But value is still what you have found.
Ginge
Ginge, if you’d get your head out of your backside for just one minute you will discover an answer. I’m sorry but I don’t have to give a reply that suits you. You asked me a question, I’ve given you an answer – I don’t consider what percentage I win at any one price because I don’t think that way – that is the answer, if you don’t like it I can’t help that.
Flash,
Are there any more names you want to call me?Go on, get it off your chest if it makes you feel any better.
I may remind you that if I was someone who did not listen to others I would not know, or want to know about the "table".
Strange, that type of person reminds me of someone.
Have you ever posted your selections on any sites I could see Flash?
I can learn from many people about how to find that value thing (well probably), but I do know about probabilities.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingFlash,
Are there any more names you want to call me?Go on, get it off your chest if it makes you feel any better.
I may remind you that if I was someone who did not listen to others I would not know, or want to know about the "table".
Strange, that type of person reminds me of someone.
Ginge
No Ginge that will do for now mate.
You are blinkered. I don’t see anything wrong with that to a degree because in the punting game you have to have a strong belief in yourself and your abilities. If you don’t believe in yourself you will fail and whats more you have to be very strong minded.
I just wish you’d learn to curb that blinkered belief a little bit and recognise another point of view from time to time, thats all.
Now if its Ok with you I’m going for my tea now before you accuse me of running away from you again. After that its bed as I have a nightshift coming up.
Is that Ok mate?
I’ll be sure to remember that, Salselon.
There was a time when TRF was about reasoned debate between people of a like mind, but it sadly seems to be dominated now by ego upon ego (and, for once, Fists isn’t the problem), the sole purpose of such a persons being to preach their equine gospel to the exclusion of anyone else’s opinion.
Disappointing.
That is o.k. mate, I’ll let you get some sleep.
It is better to be blinkered than blindfolded.
Then again scrub that.
Depends who is doing the blindfolding!
That’l make a few pleasant dreams for you Flash.Would like to here more of how you come to your selections Flash. I might be able to learn a few things.
Have you ever put your knowledge to the test by giving tips on any website?
Ginge
Value Is EverythingI’ll be sure to remember that, Salselon.
There was a time when TRF was about reasoned debate between people of a like mind, but it sadly seems to be dominated now by ego upon ego (and, for once, Fists isn’t the problem), the sole purpose of such a persons being to preach their equine gospel to the exclusion of anyone else’s opinion.
Disappointing.
Trouble is LGR, when people know they have lost the arguement / discussion they resort to name calling, not reasoned debate.
and avoid answering questions like they were a Labour MP.
Why some people call others names and then do not expect to have anything coming back at them is beyond me.I don’t think Fist has been much of a problem anyway, he might have opposing views but has, generally been quite polite. Unlike some.
I might admit to sounding like a teacher, am trying to "educate" after all. But like George Washington (the horse) I don’t have an ego, it’s temperament.
Ye I know, you wish I was dead too.Let’s keep this light hearted and try to laugh at ourselves please, and not resort to name calling.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingPersonally, I don’t give a monkey’s whether I win or lose. I just enjoy the sport rather than beat myself up about finding angles. I haven’t really got the time, patience or inclination to base it on speed figures, value tables etc etc
I just like watching horses run round tracks!!! I’m such a simpleton!!!
- Total Posts 17716
There was a time when TRF was about reasoned debate between people of a like mind, but it sadly seems to be dominated now by ego upon ego (and, for once, Fists isn’t the problem), the sole purpose of such a persons being to preach their equine gospel to the exclusion of anyone else’s opinion.
Disappointing.
Totally agree.
It’s sad to see this forum dragged down to the level of a primary school playground once more, and for nothing but one person’s ego.
How many more good threads are we to have ruined by such garbage before something is done to call a halt?Reet – trust that isn’t beng aimed at me?
LGR – you keep mentioning Pricewise in derogatory fashion. I believe Cormack pulled you up on it in another thread, and it gets repetitive and boring. Never mind he had a 33/1 and 10/1 winner in the last week?
And .. LGR & reasoned debate?
- Total Posts 17716
Reet – trust that isn’t beng aimed at me?
Hardly, Sals.
Thought it was pretty pointed myself.FFS Aragorn that’s the angle!
Ignorance is bliss Marb
Anyway lets get back to the filly.. I’ve watched the race few times and her performance has only re-enforced my view that she is out of the absolute top drawer.
She cruised into the race, hit top gear, got to the front and then despite a hands and heels ride she’s pulling away at the end. Effortless performances like that are normally the sign of something special.
With her allowances I think she’ll turn over the boys.
Hostpur in the Telegraph suggests today that she must be on the shortlist for the Arc. Long way to go yet before that could be true IMO but an exciting filly and can’t wait to see her up in trip.
up the wrong way.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.