Zarkava – Guaranteed in the Guineas?

[Aragorn]

I know she’s out of a Kayhasi mare but I don’t see her quite getting the trip. She looks an 8-10 furlong horse to me. The rest of her dam’s family were best at around a mile as well.

If she did, her turn of foot would be very useful.

[Gingertipster]

Ginge

It is obvious and simplistic to say that if you only bet horses at 7/1 to make a profit you would have to win more than 12.5% of the time. However there are people (believe it or not) who make it pay without having to resort to making a book or resorting to mathematical probablities to two decimal places. You are obviously very comfortable and confident in your way of doing things and making your own book is imperative to your stated success but even doing it your way doesn’t guarantee success if your book is incorrect or if your basic form reading is wild of the mark. As mentioned previously and not wholly replied to if you take a sample of 100 horses all priced at an SP of 7/1.

In your book you have the following

40 should be 10/1
40 should be 5/1
20 should be 7/1

I’m assuming that you would bet the 40 horses you think should be 5/1, not bet the 40 at 10/1 and I’m not sure about the other 20 but that is immaterial.

Horses returned at an SP of 7/1 should win 12.5% of the time and therefore lose 87.5% of the time. Is it not beyond the realms of possibility that all the 40 you backed could lose ? And whose to say that this couldn’t happen time and time again ? If you can’t pick the winners then you can’t make a profit. The way you claim you make a profit is by being able to produce your book correctly and applying the maths after. If you don’t produce your book correctly it could prove dangerous to your bank balance.

As others have stated there are other ways to do things and possibly with not quite so much effort and a little less turnover and they are quite within their rights (as you are) to say so. Unfortunately IMHO you come across occasionally, using a religious connotation here , as a bit of an extremist ( my way is the only way ) and that usually rubs people, well Flash anyway up the wrong way.

Sorry Aaron, missed your post down there.
No, you misunderstand. I was not talking about SP’s of 7/1, it is horses I believe should be 7/1 shots. Any horse I believe has a 12.5% chance of winning, I back if I can get better than 7/1 (well, actually it is usually better than 15/2 because I like a margin for error).

The reason why I mention decimal points is 7/1 = 12.5% but 15/2 = 11.8%, so if I were to say 12% instead of 12.5, it would be nearer a price of 15/2 than 7/1.

However, you are right, doing it my way does not guarantee success. It is possible I won’t win more than 12.5% of my bets at 7/1. But if I do not win more than 12.5% then I do not get value in the first place. To be able to identify value I have to spend hours studying form. The first year I did my 100% books I did not make a profit. It was some time before I figured out how much to allow for things like probable pace in the race and trainer form etc.

I think Aaron some have misunderstood what I have said. My way is certainly not the only way of finding value. If we use the skinning the cat adage.

If the cats name is Value, there are more ways than one to skin a cat. In that there are more ways than mine to find that Value. Have never, will never say the only way to find value is do the exact things I do, that would be arrogant in the extreme.

But, if the cats name is Profit, there is only one way to skin this cat. That is to find value. i.e. (assuming level stakes) if a punter does not win more than 12.5% of his bets at 7/1 he / she will not show a profit, that is not opinion, that is FACT, 25% would be 3/1, 60% 4/6, 2% 50/1 etc. So if a punter blocks his mind and refuses to take the "table of odds and chances" in to account, as Reet, Flash, Fist and LGR have done, they are highly unlikely to make a profit for long.

I am no extremist Aaron, I only used a religous connotation as a laugh and because I was asked about Jehovahs Witnesses. Again, sorry if it came over that way.

I know I rub Flash up the wrong way. I think Flash is best rubbed on the bath, as he cleans it without scratching, and he’s better for work tops too!
The older members will get that one.

Ginge

Value Is Everything

[Anonymous]

Ginge

It is obvious and simplistic to say that if you only bet horses at 7/1 to make a profit you would have to win more than 12.5% of the time. However there are people (believe it or not) who make it pay without having to resort to making a book or resorting to mathematical probablities to two decimal places. You are obviously very comfortable and confident in your way of doing things and making your own book is imperative to your stated success but even doing it your way doesn’t guarantee success if your book is incorrect or if your basic form reading is wild of the mark. As mentioned previously and not wholly replied to if you take a sample of 100 horses all priced at an SP of 7/1.

In your book you have the following

40 should be 10/1
40 should be 5/1
20 should be 7/1

I’m assuming that you would bet the 40 horses you think should be 5/1, not bet the 40 at 10/1 and I’m not sure about the other 20 but that is immaterial.

Horses returned at an SP of 7/1 should win 12.5% of the time and therefore lose 87.5% of the time. Is it not beyond the realms of possibility that all the 40 you backed could lose ? And whose to say that this couldn’t happen time and time again ? If you can’t pick the winners then you can’t make a profit. The way you claim you make a profit is by being able to produce your book correctly and applying the maths after. If you don’t produce your book correctly it could prove dangerous to your bank balance.

As others have stated there are other ways to do things and possibly with not quite so much effort and a little less turnover and they are quite within their rights (as you are) to say so. Unfortunately IMHO you come across occasionally, using a religious connotation here , as a bit of an extremist ( my way is the only way ) and that usually rubs people, well Flash anyway up the wrong way.

Sorry Aaron, missed your post down there.
No, you misunderstand. I was not talking about SP’s of 7/1, it is horses I believe should be 7/1 shots. Any horse I believe has a 12.5% chance of winning, I back if I can get better than 7/1 (well, actually it is usually better than 15/2 because I like a margin for error).

The reason why I mention decimal points is 7/1 = 12.5% but 15/2 = 11.8%, so if I were to say 12% instead of 12.5, it would be nearer a price of 15/2 than 7/1.

However, you are right, doing it my way does not guarantee success. It is possible I won’t win more than 12.5% of my bets at 7/1. But if I do not win more than 12.5% then I do not get value in the first place. To be able to identify value I have to spend hours studying form. The first year I did my 100% books I did not make a profit. It was some time before I figured out how much to allow for things like probable pace in the race and trainer form etc.

I think Aaron some have misunderstood what I have said. My way is certainly not the only way of finding value. If we use the skinning the cat adage.

If the cats name is Value, there are more ways than one to skin a cat. In that there are more ways than mine to find that Value. Have never, will never say the only way to find value is do the exact things I do, that would be arrogant in the extreme.

But, if the cats name is Profit, there is only one way to skin this cat. That is to find value. i.e. (assuming level stakes) if a punter does not win more than 12.5% of his bets at 7/1 he / she will not show a profit, that is not opinion, that is FACT, 25% would be 3/1, 60% 4/6, 2% 50/1 etc. So if a punter blocks his mind and refuses to take the "table of odds and chances" in to account, as Reet, Flash, Fist and LGR have done, they are highly unlikely to make a profit for long.

I am no extremist Aaron, I only used a religous connotation as a laugh and because I was asked about Jehovahs Witnesses. Again, sorry if it came over that way.

I know I rub Flash up the wrong way. I think Flash is best rubbed on the bath, as he cleans it without scratching, and he’s better for work tops too!
The older members will get that one.

Ginge

For God’s sake!
What has any of this to do with the the thread title, apart from some messianic arsehole getting his rocks off at the forum’s expense?

Corm
If you think is the way forward for a serious racing forum, then you are welcome to it.

[Gingertipster]

Once again Reet, you have resorted to name calling, not debate, just name calling. The name of this thread suggested Zarkava should be backed whatever the price. All I intended saying were four words "depends on the prices".But Fist and Flash said they could see no logic to my post, Fist calling it "crazy".I have got no problem with them having an opinion, but felt I had to respond. Hope I have demonstrated by debate why a horse should not be backed if the price is not right.
I admit it has gone on for longer than I had thought or wished, and gone over old ground. But when people ask me something I will give them the decency of replying. Was it wrong of me to reply to Aarons questions and comments? Unfortunately, I have needed to defend myself and my views against those of yourself, Fist, Flash and LGR, otherwise it would not have gone on for so long. I have tried to comment on the exceptional French filly too.

Why are my ramblings at the forums expense? It may be at your expense Reet, not the forums. If you listen to Young Mick, he has learnt a thing or two that could not be found in Dave Nevison’s book. Is that not a thing the forum should be proud of?

Yet again, you seem to want Corm to shut me up for some reason. When hooligans can not talk a good arguement they first start swearing and then become violent. I thought it was against the rules for posters to resort to the type of language yourself and LGR have thrown at me in this thread. Yet I do not respond by swearing or by calling for Corm (or God) to step in.

Ginge

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

I am sad, was enjoying the conflict with the Gang Of Four.

Think I frightened them off.

Come on lads.

Just kidding, I think this has run its course.

Ginge

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

I don’t mean to take sides here, and confess to have only quickly scanned the lengthy debate about value, but did Flash ever state his bets at 7/1 were level stakes? I don;t believe he did (though I may be wrong) so therein lies the answer you were after Ginge.

I know this is after the event (although my pre-race views were posted), but Zarkava was as nailed on a bet as you could get. I suspected she would go off 1/10 PMU, and indeed opened as short as this. To me she was as much a banker as Allez France, Mieqsue, Ravinella and Divine Proportions had all been in the same race – and the Pouliches is usually are far easier classic to win than the Newmarket equivalent which means when a star French filly goes for it, she usually wins easily.

I really don’t think "value" comes into it with occasions such as this. Its a case of getting on as much as you can afford. I am sure this is the Harry Findlay view?

As I have said if someone puts more on one particular horse to show a profit that is just luck. That is why i said level stakes. Without luck, it is all about price and strike rate.

Value comes in to it whatever the price. At 4/5 it does not matter if one 4/5 shot wins or loses if a punter does not win more than 55.6% of all his 4/5 bets. Assuming level stakes of course.

Well done for getting a big bet on the winner anyway Princess and if you thought she was a true 1/10 shot it was indeed a time to bet big.

As for Harry Findlay, his often quoted view is really about the "value alternative" what probably most punters think of as value. Spoken of by such as Leslie or Tommo.
What I believe he means is…
When other punters back a value alternative (a horse at a bigger price in a race where the fav is "short"). That pushes the short priced horse out to a bigger price than it should be. In effect making the "short" priced horse the "true value" bet. A short priced horse can be just as much true value as a long shot. So put like` that, I have no problem with Mr. Findlay’s view, in fact I agree with him.

May be I should change my sig to "I have an answer for Everything" Princess.

Ginge

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

By ek,

A girl that thinks I am both entertaining and interesting.

Ginge

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

I like a man with a bit of ‘spirit’ & ‘passion’.

You seem to tick both boxes.

Value Is Everything

[Author]

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