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Agree with the comments about Mac but there seems to be a dire shortage of people who are:
a. good in front of the camera
b. at least somewhat knowledgeable about racing/bettingHence why Big Mac, Tony Calvin, ‘Timeform Jim’ and all manner of rubber-faced irritants got/get so much airtime. I’m determined to check out more podcasts in the next few months – maybe there are some great gonzo racing experts out there with microphones in their bedrooms.
Kevin Blake needs to be on the show more. He ticks all the boxes.
Would love to know about more racing podcasts. The only one I listen to is The Final Furlong, which is great.
I cannot abide ‘Big Mac’. He’s rude, shouts nonsense, doesn’t seem to be listening half the time and adds nothing to the show. His ‘stats’ regarding St. Leger winners today were atrocious, arguing that Capri shouldn’t go because St Leger winners have a poor record in the Arc. No filly has ever won the Oaks and the Arc in the same season, so I guess Enable shouldn’t go? I think I’m at the point whereby if I see him on the show, I just won’t watch.
Maybe they will take action if something clips heels running onto the back of it near the end and horses are fatally injured and jockeys helicoptered off with injuries like Ana O’Brien sustained a little while back, or worse. I know accidents happen, but are more likely when a horse ridden at practically 10f pace in a 14f race is on or near the rail coming back through the field.
Trouble is Greenasgrass, the stewards don’t understand the rules so won’t act.
I was in the stands watching the 2015 Steventon Stakes over 1m2f at Newbury. There was plenty of money late on for the winner Intilaaq in to 2/1; whilst his owner companion Mustadeem ridden by Sean Levey had been weak, out to 15/2. When the gates opened Mustadeem was ridden, ridden as if he were in a sprint. Obviously tired soon after entering the home straight. Kept up to his work but the writing was on the wall; falling away. I wasn’t going to let it go without trying to do something, so went to the stewards to ask them to hold an enquirey. Eventually got to see them and stood in front of the stewards panel had this conversation with the Stewards Secretary (head of the stewards panel) ex-jockey Chris Rutter went something like this:
Me: Are you holding an enquirey in to that race?
Chris: No, why?
Me: Because the leader went off at 6f pace.
Chris: What if he did?
Me: He could never sustain that pace and imo was a non-trier.
Chris: It is entirely up to connections how fast a horse goes.
Me: But he went 6f pace when racing at 10f?
Chris: If the trainer is happy with the ride then we are happy, have you asked Brian Meehan?
Me: No; but are you saying as long as the trainer is happy the jockey can go as fast as he wants?
Chris: That’s right.
…And was led away before I could say any more.No enqirey was held.
My Timeform said:
“A slightly unusual race, in that Mustadeem set a suicidal pace…
Mustadeem: Run best ignored, going off far too fast for his own good, though he had a hard race and may take time to recover; forced pace, went clear after 1f, 20 lengths clear halfway, ridden over 2f out, folded completely, headed over 1f out, heavily eased off, finished tired”.Before that encounter I probably had more faith in British stewarding than the average punter. Not now.
As an aside, do you have to pay to keep your own notes on Timeform or is it a premium/paid for thing?
Any news on the Defoe run….?
Outclassed, surely?
Capri did well. Best horse clearly won.
Rekindling was never going to win that, but I wish Donnacha had managed to get him going earlier. He was travelling nicely through his race but I thought his run was left too late.
Barney Roy v Ribchester?
As fun as it would be to see, I don’t see it happening. Maybe they’ll hold Ribchester back for the Breeders Cup?
Ribchester could end up being Barney Roy’s pacemaker!
Split my stake between Rekindling and Raheen House. Raheen House ran the final 3 furlongs of the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot in a much faster time than Crystal Ocean and in a quick time comparative to the season so far, so he definitely has the speed for such a race and will definitely stay. Rekindling’s OOSG form is as good as anything Crystal Ocean or Defoe is bringing in – finishing 5 lengths behind him when under a 5lb penalty shouldn’t be underestimated – and I can’t believe he’s a double figure price.
Interesting that Dettori has gone for Coronet. “That’s a tip in itself”, as my Father In Law says.
Couldn’t figure this race out, so left it alone. Desert Skyline would have been my pick, but I’m not sure if he actually wants to go past a horse or not. He’s done me well this year as an each-way option the last two runs, wouldn’t mind seeing him win.
Looking down the betting, Capri hasn’t ran for two months. Crystal Ocean isn’t sure to get the trip. Defoe I like, but I’d want plenty more points on his price. Stradivarius I rate, and if he drifts a bit further I’d be very interested. I don’t think Coronet wants soft ground, nor is her form particularly appealing. Raheen House I’m a big fan of, but he hasn’t ran for two months and doesn’t have the level of soft ground form I’d be after.
REKINDLING at 13.00 takes my eye. 5 lengths behind OOSG suddenly doesn’t look too bad in terms of form, he’s Officially Rated 114 so right there in the mix, and he will love the ground and trip.
Couldn’t agree more. Poor ride from Barzalona. Could and should have put that race to bed a furlong or so out but got himself well trapped in. I really like this horse and reckon he’ll bounce back.
“Poor ride” and “Barzalona” brings back some very sore memories from Royal Ascot
I’m saying I couldn’t get Ribchester beat, but that’s not to say he was unbeatable. Evens represented where he should be in the market, for me, and had no juice in his price.
At Evens a punter does not need to think the horse is anywhere near “unbeatable”, it only needs to be thought of as having a better chance of winning than losing.
“Couldn’t get Ribchester beat”, surely means at the very least a better chance of winning than losing? Therefore – even in your own opinion – represented a better price than he should be in the market.I’ve probably not quite found the correct words to represent what I meant.
Personally, for the way I enjoy betting, I very rarely have any interest in backing a favourite, particularly a short-priced one. My first port of call is, “Can I get the favourite beat?” If not, then I almost always move on.
Looking at my past bets, since the start of June I’ve only backed two horses who were favourite at the time of my bet: one was Barsanti at York, the other was Caravaggio today. That’s just how I like to bet and how I enjoy betting. To me, Ribchester didn’t represent an enjoyable bet; I’d rather he win at Evens and I didn’t back than I did back him and he lost, so I didn’t bet.
I took Brametot at 21.00 after his reappearance flop, and his price has been steadily brought down by the horses ahead of him in the market underperforming. I’ve also just taken a bit of 28.00 for Highland Reel; if the ground comes up good, he’ll run his usual race and that would put him bang there. I’ve also got Idaho at 80.00, but that was a month or so ago. I thought he would be a G1 horse, but time is quickly running out for him.
What I mean is:
When it comes to the price of Evens offered, a punter does not need to have much idea of how to quantify a horse’s chances, Degaussed. If thinking it has a better chance of winning than losing then Evens is a good bet. If thinking it has a better chance of losing than winning then it’s a poor bet @ Evens. So if thinking “can’t get Ribchester beat here” you’re effectively saying in your opinion it has a much better chance of winning than losing… ie a bloody good bet @ Evens!!!
I’m saying I couldn’t get Ribchester beat, but that’s not to say he was unbeatable. Evens represented where he should be in the market, for me, and had no juice in his price.
I can’t get Ribchester beat here, but then I can’t have him at his price. I’m a fan of Inns of Court (had him lto when he got chinned), but I’m not sure he’s up to beating Ribchester and is no price what so ever. Just looking forward to a good race.
If you “can’t get Ribchester beat here”, Degaused; then what does that mean? Would you have estimated him as a 60%, 70% or 80% chance? Surely if you “can’t get Ribchester beat here” then it’s a bet with a capital B while around Evens? ie If believing Ribchester better than 50% he’s a logical bet @ Evens.
Being honest, I don’t quantify a horse’s chances in terms of percentages. I don’t know how, although if you have any tips I’m all ears! I thought Ribchester was rock solid as the favourite and would likely win, but the race just didn’t interest me from a betting point of view, I didn’t believe there to be enough juice in his price and it was more one I’d rather enjoy as a neutral.
The way Ribchester kicked on again in the final furlong when he looked to be reeled in by Tareef was seriously impressive. He must be an absolute dream to train/ride/own with an attitude like that.
