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I’m delighted they’ve decided to go with Winter. I think the fact the ground didn’t come for Highland Reel has swayed their decision a little – he’s the only realistic contender for Enable, so if he can’t run they might as well give Winter a go. She’s ground versatile and she has a chance to get the trip on pedigree, so why not?
Rekindling goes to Melbourne. He’s currently a 33/1 shot generally, though I think he will go off much shorter on the day.
Rekindling is 50/50 for this or Melbourne Cup. He’s around 50.00 on Betfair Exchange for Australia, so might be worth doubling up on that race incase they head there.
Am seldom in favour of “doubling up” in ante-post betting, Degaussed. If doing so I’d be effectively drastically reducing the price am taking because there’s no way he’s going to race in both.
I’ve got 38 points @ 20/1 but easier if explaining a 10 point bet:
If I had 10 points @ 20/1 it wins 200 + 10 stake, return 210; with 200 profit.
If I had 10 points @ 20/1 for that race and 10 on anther race where he won’t run in both…
Stake is effectively 20 points, not 10.
Stake 20, return is still 210 and profit 190 (I’d lose 10 of the 20 stake).
190 divided by 20 = 9.5.
ie By backing the horse for two races I’d be effectively reducing my 20/1 bet to 9.5/1 and (as you can see in the original bet) my “minimum price” to take for Rekindling winning the Long Distance Cup is 12/1 (bigger than 9.5/1) therefore turning excellent value in to a poor value bet.I’d be surprised if he goes to Australia, as LS says doubt he has the pace. To win the Melbourne Cup I believe you need a European 1m6f horse, not one that’s going to be best at 2m+. More importantly is also ulikely to get his ground too… imo Unsuited by a firm surface and there’d be no knowing what the ground is going to be before going in to quarentine.
Considering his owner, I would have thought he’d be more likely to go to Melbourne, though I don’t disagree with anything you say. We will find out tomorrow, though, as he will need to go into Quarantine very soon.
I’m not sure, personally, how anyone can back Enable at her current price. In my opinion, the play in this is to find something 16/1 or bigger at 1/5 odds with great place claims and an outside shot of winning if Enable underperforms. If they place you’re taking even money on your stake, and if they win you’re laughing.
And if they don’t place?
Well, that’s the bet, isn’t it? What if Enable doesn’t win?
Yeah but the way you present it picking some random outsider to place is so much of a better play than backing the strong favourite to win, and it simply isn’t.
You’d have to put your research into it, so I wouldn’t call it random. There’s a possibility some firms will go 4 places which will help, too.
I’m not sure, personally, how anyone can back Enable at her current price. In my opinion, the play in this is to find something 16/1 or bigger at 1/5 odds with great place claims and an outside shot of winning if Enable underperforms. If they place you’re taking even money on your stake, and if they win you’re laughing.
And if they don’t place?
Well, that’s the bet, isn’t it? What if Enable doesn’t win?
I like BigG’s write up, but in my opinion the German horse looked comfortably on top at the line and, to me, just looked a better horse on the day.
I’m not sure, personally, how anyone can back Enable at her current price. In my opinion, the play in this is to find something 16/1 or bigger at 1/5 odds with great place claims and an outside shot of winning if Enable underperforms. If they place you’re taking even money on your stake, and if they win you’re laughing.
Rekindling is 50/50 for this or Melbourne Cup. He’s around 50.00 on Betfair Exchange for Australia, so might be worth doubling up on that race incase they head there.
Can’t see The Lads risking the filly at that trip in what’s now sure to be a brutal stamina test with a pace set by horses that the field cannot afford to ignore.
The true stayers are the ones to bet and I think Capri could go off at single figures.
I suspect the key talking point after the race will not so much be the winner but what the international authorities can do about The Lads’ team tactics.
AOB is pretty relentless in his running of his horses, apart from the next generation of stallions whose reputations need a bit of protecting. I don’t see why running Winter would be any sort of a risk to her, and it makes sense if they think she will stay.
I’m not sure which of AOB’s will be sacrificed for “team tactics”. I don’t think it matters too much to them who wins it, as long as they do.
Looking at how Cloth of Stars is heading in the betting (46/1 on BFair) I’d almost think he wasn’t going to run. Maybe he’s just not fancied by the UK punters. I have a small interest at big odds. Not making a big case for him winning, though I think he’s got a chance, but I’d like a run for my money! Anyone heard anything re his being a definite starter?
Trainer Andre Fabre said on Monday: “I was happy considering he hadn’t run since May and the ground was against him. The Arc is the plan.”
I would snap that price up if you like it!
I hope WINTER stay at home for 1m race at Ascot madness run her has any horse won arc on 1st run at 1m4 before.
Winter will still probably run on Champions Day too. Last year Found and Order of St George did, and there was only two weeks between meetings. This year there are three weeks, which is more than enough time to recover.
According to Twitter account @aobrienfansite, these will be left in the Arc:
“Order Of St George, Idaho, Highland Reel, Capri, Winter, Seventh Heaven and Cliffs Of Moher. to be left in Arc”
Order Of St George, Idaho, Highland Reel, Capri, Winter, Seventh Heaven and Cliffs Of Moher. to be left in Arc
— AIDANOBRIENFANSITE (@aobrienfansite) September 24, 2017
If all seven of those turned up, you could make a case for all seven getting involved.
With the weather forecast currently dry and sunny for most of the week, with a few showers forecast on Monday and on Friday, there’s every likelihood that the race will be ran on good ground or better. Highland Reel is currently around 26.00 on the exchanges, which is surely absolutely massive considering his second in the race last year and his comprehensive superiority over Ulysses in the POW Stakes.
Kevin Blake was absolutely fantastic today – by far the most knowledgable and eloquent of the panel. Honestly, I think it would have been an even better episode had it just been the presenter and Blake, because I’m not sure what either of the other two really added.
They should be more selective regarding who they allow on the show and go for quality over quantity, because episodes like today are top class. Having one or two top class guests will keep the overall quality of the show high, whereas having to have three presenters brings the overall average level of the show down.
They definitely need a clean out of who they allow on the show and should be looking to bring in some new blood. Bic Mac, Charlie Poste, the Australian guy would all be first out by me. Building the show around Blake and O’Brien (as mickeyjp mentions) are very good and would improve Sunday Forum leaps and bounds, and I wouldn’t mind trying some of the Final Furlong guests like Rory Delargy on the show.
I rarely use ATR but having a detailed look at it today – huge amount of info there (although Steve Caution has mentioned a number of times that not all of it is accurate).
What do the pace ratings mean? I assume 10 is better then 9 but what how do you interpret each rating?
It’s a lot to do with position within a race and early speed. For instance, it would be safe to assume that a 10 rating and 9 rating suggests both horses are front runners, but a 10 is likely to go off at a faster pace than a 9 would.
