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Long Distance Cup:
38 points @ 20/1 (BetStars) Rekindling (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingLong Distance Cup:
38 points @ 20/1 (BetStars) Rekindling (min 12/1)Wow GT, how did you get 38pts on with Betstars? Assuming your points are fairly lumpy units as well!
I like the bet. I really want to back this horse for next year’s Ascot Gold Cup but nobody has it in their betting yet. How do you think I should play it?
Directly requesting it with a firm usually gets them thinking and generates a very ungenerous price. But sitting and waiting for it to run well in the Long Distance might hurt the potential value too. What to do?
Long Distance Cup:
38 points @ 20/1 (BetStars) Rekindling (min 12/1)Wow GT, how did you get 38pts on with Betstars? Assuming your points are fairly lumpy units as well!
I like the bet. I really want to back this horse for next year’s Ascot Gold Cup but nobody has it in their betting yet. How do you think I should play it?
Directly requesting it with a firm usually gets them thinking and generates a very ungenerous price. But sitting and waiting for it to run well in the Long Distance might hurt the potential value too. What to do?
My own Rekindling bet is on the machine, LS. I don’t have a betStars account but saw 21/1 available on betfair. Took all the 21/1 and 20/1 available so couldn’t tell my follower to go there. Don’t normally put small bookmakers prices in these threads and may be fairer to call it 31 points @ 16/1 with B365 instead? So that more TRFers can get on at that price. Betstars only ones still having 20/1 up according to Oddschecker.
I’m with you wanting to back Rekindling for the 2018 Gold Cup, frustrating. Although is not so certain to get some give underfoot in June so Stradivarius will be my best bet. Love some 10/1 Stradivarius with VCbet for that race! I now only have one bookmaker that gives me unlimited bets anyway, so not being able to get on is the default position this far out. Agreed, asking for a price isn’t worth it. Just got to wait. Suspect they’ll produce a more comprehensive Gold Cup market in the days prior to the Long Distance Cup. Just got to wait and be patient.
Value Is EverythingI don’t think that’s misleading, GT. Don’t worry about that. I know one of (or maybe the only-) racing compiler(s) at Stars. He seems a clever guy with some healthy attitudes. Your post just made me wonder if they’d lay a solid bet.
You’re probably right about the Gold Cup bet. Will sit on my hands for a while.
Rekindling is 50/50 for this or Melbourne Cup. He’s around 50.00 on Betfair Exchange for Australia, so might be worth doubling up on that race incase they head there.
I think he’s too slow for the Melbourne Cup. He’s like a classier version of She Is No Lady.
Rekindling is 50/50 for this or Melbourne Cup. He’s around 50.00 on Betfair Exchange for Australia, so might be worth doubling up on that race incase they head there.
Am seldom in favour of “doubling up” in ante-post betting, Degaussed. If doing so I’d be effectively drastically reducing the price am taking because there’s no way he’s going to race in both.
I’ve got 38 points @ 20/1 but easier if explaining a 10 point bet:
If I had 10 points @ 20/1 it wins 200 + 10 stake, return 210; with 200 profit.
If I had 10 points @ 20/1 for that race and 10 on anther race where he won’t run in both…
Stake is effectively 20 points, not 10.
Stake 20, return is still 210 and profit 190 (I’d lose 10 of the 20 stake).
190 divided by 20 = 9.5.
ie By backing the horse for two races I’d be effectively reducing my 20/1 bet to 9.5/1 and (as you can see in the original bet) my “minimum price” to take for Rekindling winning the Long Distance Cup is 12/1 (bigger than 9.5/1) therefore turning excellent value in to a poor value bet.I’d be surprised if he goes to Australia, as LS says doubt he has the pace. To win the Melbourne Cup I believe you need a European 1m6f horse, not one that’s going to be best at 2m+. More importantly is also ulikely to get his ground too… imo Unsuited by a firm surface and there’d be no knowing what the ground is going to be before going in to quarentine.
Value Is EverythingRekindling is 50/50 for this or Melbourne Cup. He’s around 50.00 on Betfair Exchange for Australia, so might be worth doubling up on that race incase they head there.
Am seldom in favour of “doubling up” in ante-post betting, Degaussed. If doing so I’d be effectively drastically reducing the price am taking because there’s no way he’s going to race in both.
I’ve got 38 points @ 20/1 but easier if explaining a 10 point bet:
If I had 10 points @ 20/1 it wins 200 + 10 stake, return 210; with 200 profit.
If I had 10 points @ 20/1 for that race and 10 on anther race where he won’t run in both…
Stake is effectively 20 points, not 10.
Stake 20, return is still 210 and profit 190 (I’d lose 10 of the 20 stake).
190 divided by 20 = 9.5.
ie By backing the horse for two races I’d be effectively reducing my 20/1 bet to 9.5/1 and (as you can see in the original bet) my “minimum price” to take for Rekindling winning the Long Distance Cup is 12/1 (bigger than 9.5/1) therefore turning excellent value in to a poor value bet.I’d be surprised if he goes to Australia, as LS says doubt he has the pace. To win the Melbourne Cup I believe you need a European 1m6f horse, not one that’s going to be best at 2m+. More importantly is also ulikely to get his ground too… imo Unsuited by a firm surface and there’d be no knowing what the ground is going to be before going in to quarentine.
Considering his owner, I would have thought he’d be more likely to go to Melbourne, though I don’t disagree with anything you say. We will find out tomorrow, though, as he will need to go into Quarantine very soon.
Rekindling goes to Melbourne. He’s currently a 33/1 shot generally, though I think he will go off much shorter on the day.
QEII:
89 points @ 3/1 (B365) Ribchester (min 9/4)34 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Beat The Bank (min 7/1)
Value Is EverythingLong Distance Cup:
38 points @ 20/1 (BetStars) Rekindling (min 12/1)You were right about Rekindling, Degaussed.
No doubt chance of running was why he was such a theoretically goood price.Try again:
44 points @ 6/1 (B365) Stradivarius (min 11/2)
Value Is Everything
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