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I’m a bit late throwing my hat into the ring on this thread, but after spending a bit of time
going through the field looking for a bit of value, and watching as many reruns as I could
stomach, I think there is value to be had in CLOTH OF STARS at 33/1.
I think there is little doubt that if ENABLE turns up in top form, and doesn’t have a hard
luck story in running, she’s well capable of taking this as she looks a bit special. Those
are two significant iff’s, and the ARC is traditionally a no holds barred tough skirmish of
a race. With that in mind, I’m not too inclined to take the pretty skinny 4/5 on offer.Cloth OF STARS could very well be going into this having won all 4 of his starts this season, and
if he had I don’t think he would be on offer at 33/1. Having watched his run in the Qatar Prix Foy
at Chantilly last time out, he nearly hit the rails at one point and had to be snatched up, and even
although it was only a 6 runner race, Barzalona somehow managed to get him completely tied up with
nowhere to go until virtually inside the final furlong, when Dschingis Secret had already got the
march on him. Dschingis Secret is trading at half his price, and there’s no way that should be the
case. There seems every chance that it could come up soft on Arc day, and that won’t trouble him at
all. If it stays dry, he’ll be equally happy. Add to that that this is a horse who broke the track
record over 10f back in April, and he was running on strongly when he eventually saw daylight
behind Dschingis Secret over 12f, and I think there is every chance that he has a very decent
shout here. I’m very keen on his chances and have had a decent bet on him e/w.Well let´s put it this way. If they ran the Foy in the same way/time and you just switched the names Satono Diamond and Dschingis Secret, Satono Diamond would now be 4-1 for the Arc, Cloth of Stars would be 7-1 and Dschingis Secret would be 66-1. So I agree that CoS (exposed as he may be) is way too big. CoS beat Zarak in the Ganay, and is twice the price, although Zarak has only beaten the same field in the GP Saint Cloud since (minus CoS).
Thanks, Pete.
Something to my eye not quite right about COS head carriage – something more than keenness, possibly breathing. Not for me but good luck.
Well done plunger getting those fancy prices
I take your point on his run in the Grand Prix de Paris plunger, his last run as
a 3 year old. I just think that he looks to have strengthened up as a 4 year old
and is finishing off his races well. If you take his run in the Prix d’Harcourt,
he was super confidently ridden by Barzalona, both off the pace and kept out wide.
When he pressed the button he made great strides to make up a fair bit of ground
in the last couple of furlongs to win. He broke the course record over the 10f at
Chantilly, and looked really strong at the finish. I’m quite happy he will handle
the 12f in the Arc, he didn’t look to be tiring when he finished strongly behind
Dschingis Secret, after seeing daylight, over 12f last time out.I find it hard to understand the 33/1 still on offer. I mentioned that Dschingis
Secret shouldn’t be half his price at 14s, and I see that one is now as low as 10s.
Not only that, he beat ZARAK fair and square in the Prix Ganay at Saint-Cloud over
10 1/2f in May, and that one is also half his price as Pete rightly pointed out.
I think he is very overpriced at 33s and well worth an investment.Thanks, Pete.
Something to my eye not quite right about COS head carriage – something more than keenness, possibly breathing. Not for me but good luck.
Joe, have a look at his run in the Prix d’Harcourt, I think he was quite impressive there
and he broke the track record to boot. You have to fast forward the video to 13 minutes for
the race.Interesting, Graham. He does the same in that race, perhaps worse. Very odd. At first I thought it was keenness but if so his jock has a pair of superb hands that seem to work intermittently. There’s a section where he seems to be pulling so hard his head goes straight up in the air. He then calms quickly which is very unlike an animal who’s racing so keenly.
It could just be keenness and he displays it differently but even when not looking keen he carries his head just slightly high. When asked for his effort in the straight his head goes from side to side and then he hangs for a few strides. He looks a very green horse but cannot be at his age and experience.
I’d say you are not seeing his full potential and that something is ailing him. On the back of that, he must be a horse and a half.
Good luck, Graham.
I’ve just had a small bet on Capri in the hope that 1 he runs after that hard race at Donny, and 2, Moore chooses him, at which point the price will half.
Enable will crown her season and take whatever odds you can on this racing machine
You may well be right Judge and well done to all those who snapped up a decent price earlier in the season. I for one, though am not a person that takes an odds-on price about a 3 year old filly running in the world’s premier horse race at the end of a long season. And this is all before she gets drawn out in the carpark by the French.
For patriotic reasons I would love the filly to win but I won’t be backing her. If this rain does materialise then it’ll probably scupper my Satono Diamond and Cliffs Of Moher bets.
I’ll wait for the draw before getting involved any more now and I suggest most do likewise.
I’m not sure, personally, how anyone can back Enable at her current price. In my opinion, the play in this is to find something 16/1 or bigger at 1/5 odds with great place claims and an outside shot of winning if Enable underperforms. If they place you’re taking even money on your stake, and if they win you’re laughing.
I like BigG’s write up, but in my opinion the German horse looked comfortably on top at the line and, to me, just looked a better horse on the day.
I’m not sure, personally, how anyone can back Enable at her current price. In my opinion, the play in this is to find something 16/1 or bigger at 1/5 odds with great place claims and an outside shot of winning if Enable underperforms. If they place you’re taking even money on your stake, and if they win you’re laughing.
And if they don’t place?
I’m not sure, personally, how anyone can back Enable at her current price. In my opinion, the play in this is to find something 16/1 or bigger at 1/5 odds with great place claims and an outside shot of winning if Enable underperforms. If they place you’re taking even money on your stake, and if they win you’re laughing.
And if they don’t place?
Well, that’s the bet, isn’t it? What if Enable doesn’t win?
I like BigG’s write up, but in my opinion the German horse looked comfortably on top at the line and, to me, just looked a better horse on the day.
I can understand why you say that Degaussed, in fact I agree that Dschingis Secret didn’t have
that hard a race. I just think that things didn’t go too great for Cloth Of Stars, and Joe’s right
he didn’t seem too settled, I see what he’s talking about with the unusual head carriage. I’m not
sure exactly what happened about 1 min 42 secs into the video, I thought before that he had maybe,
or almost caught the rail. It’s difficult to see with the camera angle and it being on the bend, but
he maybe was just snatched up by Barzalona. His run in the Prix d’Harcourt shows what he can do when
he has daylight in front of him, I don’t think he liked sitting behind the wall of horses coming into
the final furlong. I’d have rather seen Barzalona take him wide and let him run, like in the Prix
d’Harcourt.Of course, this could be a problem in the Arc, his style of running means he’s going to be held up.
He’s either going to need a charmed passage, or hopefully Barzalona can keep him covered up, but perhaps
more to the outside where he can be pulled out and let loose. He’s a horse who obviously has his own
ideas about racing, but Barzalona, showman that he is, is still an excellent horseman who knows the
horse so well having been jocked up for all bar one of his races. He’s definitely not the finished
article, and yet he still set the course record at Chantilly over 2f short of the Arc distance. Even
as he is I think he has a very decent chance, but if they have managed to get any improvement out of
him or iron out any of his eccentricities, he could be the proverbial “dark horse” in this. The 33s
has disappeared now, but still 28s with Willie Hill, and that still looks big to me.Good luck, Graham.
I’ve just had a small bet on Capri in the hope that 1 he runs after that hard race at Donny, and 2, Moore chooses him, at which point the price will half.
Good luck with him Joe, I wrote quite a bit about him before the Derby and took him
at big odds. That didn’t quite work out but he rewarded me in the Irish equivalent.
To my cost I deserted him in the St Leger, but he’s a damn good horse and as tough
as old boots. I hope Moore takes the ride on him for you, although there seems to
be stronger indications he might be on Order Of St George with doubts about Winter
making an appearance.
Best of luck
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