Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2017

DRAW:

#1 – Ulysses
#2 – Enable
#3 – Cloth of Stars
#4 – Brametot
#5 – Satono Noblesse
#6 – Iquitos
#7 – Idaho
#8 – Winter
#9 – Order of St George
#10 – Dschingis Secret
#11 – One Foot in Heaven
#12 – Doha Dream
#13 – Satono Diamond
#14 – Plumatic
#15 – Capri
#16 – Silverware
#17 – Seventh Heaven
#18 – Zarak

I have backed Winter at 9s today. I don’t care much for Ballydoyle or their tactics (reckon ham is right- a rolling roadblock box-in job on Enable the likely plan) but I really like this filly. Also if you have to guess the answer to the question “Will this Galileo stay?” you’d be right more than 50% of the time if you said yes. She and Enable are class acts and I hope they are together turning in.

I like Capri, too, but one thing bothers me. He scoped dirty so was a NR in the Great Voltigeur. Generally cruddy dirty? Or bloody dirty? A scope only tells you what made it up as far as the trachea, not what is going on deep in the lungs and how well they have recovered so a clean scope doesn’t prove happy lungs (a lung wash would tell you more I suppose, don’t know if they have done this). A fairly recent dodgy scope plus a long hard race in the Leger…I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he bombs out in the Arc.

I said at the start of this thread and I said about 10 days ago what I will say now, I have absolutely no idea whatsoever.

I’ll have an interest bet because it’s the Arc but I hope the filly destroys them. I should be going in on the filly to win based on form but I can’t get the nagging feeling away that there will be a big shock this year.

I may see if Skybet or someone on a request a bet will give me ‘price of the winner being 16/1 or higher’ and see what they say.

I’ll be back with my bet Saturday night but either way, this looks wide open if the favourite underperforms.

For what it’s worth, well done to you lot on the fancy prices. Good to see.

Brametot has only lost twice in his career. I never found an explanation for his defeat at odds of 30/100 as a two year old but I did read that last time out, when he lost 10 lengths at the start, he was reported to have come out of it with a back problem.

The Racing Post gave him as running 20 lbs below his French Derby form in the Grand Prix De Paris and the article I read concerning the matter was on the Racing Post website and is quoted here:-

Although by no means a slick starter in his previous races Brametot’s problem with the stalls reached something of a crisis last time. But it emerged on Tuesday that since that run the son of Rajsaman has undergone treatment for a back niggle which the team believe may have contributed to his Deauville run.
“He has been closely looked over by Al Shaqab’s vet Duncan Moir who could see that he was sore and hopefully has been able to do a couple of things that might just help the horse,” said Al Shaqab representative in France, Rupert Pritchard-Gordon.

“The good thing is we had plenty of time between the Guillaume d’Ornano and the Arc and we hope he can now respond positively to the treatment. Jean-Claude was happy this morning and [jockey] Cristian Demuro was happy with the way he was moving.”

The horse was very consistent last season, running to RPR’s of 94, 95, 96 and 97 in his four starts. This season he went 115, 118 and 117 before his 97 last time out. You would be hopeful he can run his race and I’ll be surprised if the dual Classic winner is not on the premises.

Like a few folk I’m not sure enable is the sure thing the bookies say. She may well win but in a big field with a high draw she will have to be very good to win. With the ground being soft at best Id go for proven horses on the ground. Oosg and capri won’t be inconvenienced as will winter but her staying the distance is a doubt. I can see it being coolmore v enable at the finish with maybe Brametot there as well. At the prices oosg is definetely the value especially after his great run last year where he could easily have gone very close with a clear run. Will frankie ping the stalls as he did with golden horn. The start could decide the race.

I’ve had a look during the night and I think Brametot at 16/1 is gonna be my bet.

Good luck to all

I’m a great believer in the words attributed to the late Jimmy Fitzgerald – ‘The bigger the odds, the more you should put on – you only need to land one to make it pay!’. So I’ve moved to being ‘modest’ on Cloth of Stars and Brametot to being on ‘large’ – the odds seem too big to me, BUT what do I know! Good Luck to All.

Looking through this thread i’m quite surprised by the lack of love for Ulysses.

After watching the King George i feel he ran to the line strongly behind Enable and was beaten more by the weight than the distance. With 4 lbs less to carry you can arguably say both him and Idaho have a good chance of getting a good bit closer to the Filly.

Has the Stoute horse improved since then, and could he still improve more ?

Ten times the price of Enable does not make sense at all, and if you forgive Idaho his last run 10’s and 40’s look quite appealing still.

It’s like Capri in the Leger all over again when he was 4/1 the day before the Leger, a fine line between greed and confidence

Fair points on Ulysses, Botchy. He looked a proper horse at York and his price for Sunday must be built substantially on his KG performance. Looking back, I wonder if he was a touch unlucky there. Crowley had to commit to going through a gap turning in (a telling turn of tactical speed took him through easily) and I wonder if that diluted his finishing effort? He might well be a horse with just one run and when the hammer goes down you need to keep it there.

If Crowley can hold onto him no matter what is happening in front and just hope for the break at a vital point, that might be the key. I’ll have a saver.