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Whilst this year’s renewal does look competitive and quite high class, I can’t quite agree with Timeform’s Jamie Lynch, who has just opined on ATR that this is probably the best St Leger he can remember.
I don’t gamble much- I see myself more as a racing purist than a punter- but have had to have a little nibble on Raheen House each-way; he looks sure to be staying on when others have cried enough and, although he may lack the class of Capri (who appeals as the most likely winner), he looks a decent bet to make the frame.
It’s my belief the betting vastly over estimates Coronet’s chance, MOM. Although have no doubt money will come for her purely because of Frankie’s decision. But…
A) At home; on soft ground a mile and a half filly effective on that surface is going to work far better than a 2m stayer who’s probably not as effective on it.
B) When jockey declarations were made it appeared more than likely ground conditions would be not only on the soft side of good, but actually soft. In those conditions Stradivarius would imo have a much worse chance than even good-soft. I wouldn’t have been surprised had Stradivarius been a non-runner on Soft. So the decision is perhaps not as surprising as you’d think.
C) Who says Coronet has improved enormously? imo Frankie’s decision is much more about connections believing Stradivarius needs a sound surface than Coronet improving. It now looks as though the going will be Good and I strongly suspect Frankie will be regretting his decision this morning.
D) Will she stay? Half sister to Midas Touch who was second in the St Leger in 2010. Although a miler a lot of Coronet’s sire Dubawi’s progeny stay further than he did, but his percentage of winners at 14f+ does drop and is not as much of a stamina influence as Midas Touch’s sire Galileo. Doesn’t relax in the way I’d be confident. ie Way Coronet finishes races suggests she’ll be effective at this trip, but a lot will depend on how she settles. imo Probably will, but it’s only 65/35 in my mind. Frankie will probably drop her out to maximise her chance of staying/winning.
E) How good is Coronet and is she good enough? Form of the Yorkshire Oaks is far better than anything she’s done before. Got up for second close home, beating Queens Trust. If she’s as good as Queens Trust will have a chance here. However, sectionals tell you they went for home too early at York, with closing fractions slower. Queens Trust imo barely stays 1m4f and also paid for taking on Enable. Coronet sat a fair way back and her own sectionals are more even – conducive to a good performance. So given the Yorkshire Oaks is a stand out performance in her form and run of the race suited her spot on, there’s a good chance Coronet was flattered. Even if not, will need to improve to win this… Unless she’s dropped out the back, relies on others going too fast and comes through to win. ie Flattered again. Might happen but relying on rivals going off too fast is not something I’d want for a “5/1 to 7/1” chance.
Just my opinion, MOM. Could be wrong.
Judge the Yorkshire Oaks for yourself:
Value Is EverythingI took REKINDLING a few days ago at 12/1 (mentioned in the ante
post thread). I think his form looks decent enough, and he looks to have improved
for the step up to 1m6f at the Curragh when he won in July, and it was no disgrace
to go down to Order Of St George last time out. Bet365 still stand 12/1 at this time,
I think that’s worth taking.Split my stake between Rekindling and Raheen House. Raheen House ran the final 3 furlongs of the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot in a much faster time than Crystal Ocean and in a quick time comparative to the season so far, so he definitely has the speed for such a race and will definitely stay. Rekindling’s OOSG form is as good as anything Crystal Ocean or Defoe is bringing in – finishing 5 lengths behind him when under a 5lb penalty shouldn’t be underestimated – and I can’t believe he’s a double figure price.
I’ve found out why Jamie Spencer isn’t on Raheen House – he’s riding Deauville at Woodbine tonight.
Nonetheless, this is a colt with a big shout given the form of his Bahrain Trophy win.
I’ve found out why Jamie Spencer isn’t on Raheen House – he’s riding Deauville at Woodbine tonight.
Nonetheless, this is a colt with a big shout given the form of his Bahrain Trophy win.
Meehan had a winner yesterday, but – like so many seasons – is not in anywhere near as good form as in the summer when Raheen House last run. In a normal year I’d agree would have a big shout, Charles. This year there’s far more good horses in the race than normal. I’d say at least half the field are already as good as last year’s winner – and many with prospects of improving. Race to savour.
Value Is EverythingCapri and douglas macarthur e/w at 40/1
Really like stradivarius and on better ground i think hed win but if it stays as soft/heavy as predicted i dont like any of the others bar the obrien runners
Defoe has much to prove from his last race and i dont think i would play at the prices although i had previously considered it because he seems to be improving, but his last win was still suspect enough to talk myself out of backing him, although, atzeni at doncaster…….
Crystal ocean hasnt done nearly enough and i think his price is terrible value
The rest im not interested in whatsoever
Happy enough with that! Crystal ocean ran better than i thought, great finish to the race but capri just too classy for them
Capri did well. Best horse clearly won.
Rekindling was never going to win that, but I wish Donnacha had managed to get him going earlier. He was travelling nicely through his race but I thought his run was left too late.
Well done Capri backers – won that with power galloping and staying.
Cracksman should have beaten him in Ireland and must surely now go to Chantilly?
This has been my best betting day since the Wednesday of Royal Ascot in 2015.
I think I’ll remember this renewal for a long time.
Well done to everyone that had pick-ups.
Well done Capri backers – won that with power galloping and staying.
Cracksman should have beaten him in Ireland and must surely now go to Chantilly?
Come on! You cant take the irish derby away from him, how and why should cracksman have won it?! Lol
Well done all on Capri, a thoroughly deserved winner. He was my big fancy on here
for both the Derby and the Irish Derby, but as they say, you pays your money and
you takes your choice. I think Rekindling did well to finish where he did, he
didn’t have the easiest of passages. I’ll be keeping an eye on him, I think he
has a decent race in him.Well done Capri backers – won that with power galloping and staying.
Cracksman should have beaten him in Ireland and must surely now go to Chantilly?
Come on! You cant take the irish derby away from him, how and why should cracksman have won it?! Lol
In hindsight, Smullen should of made his move earlier
he had Cracksman deep and was intent on following Wings of Eagles and ran the race as if that was the only horse to beat.
Anyway a good race today got my Tartini stakes back by having a couple of quid on Capri earlier when at 5’s. Need Bumbasina to win at Gowran to complete a treble with Capri and SeahengeGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
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