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Corals were 8/1 Stradivarius and 5/1 Coronet. I wondered if they were privy to jockey arrangements.
Coral were 6/1 when I placed the bet, though I’m thankful for BOG.
I hope this is Frankie’s first error in picking them and he follows up by missing out on Cracksman in the Arc!
a form line is not simply how a horse runs against another as you eradicate the most important facts doing that (conditions)
Again ham, I didn’t say the form line has to be believed 100%. It is up to the individual punter if he/she chooses to believe ground or distance or anything else effected the result. What I said was:
So on “form” it’s easy to argue Crystal Ocean is a 3 lengths better animal than the “Group 1” horse Permian was.
ie On “form” it is easy for Judge to argue Crystal Ocean is a 3 lengths better animal than the Group 1 horse Permian, because of that form line; if believing going played no part in the result.
I then went on to say:
Now, may be Khalidi ran below his best at Goodwood, I doubt it was by very much. May be Permian improved a bit in France, but he had had plenty of racing before that and so doubt it was by much – if anything.
ie May be Khalidi ran below his very best at Goodwood (possibly because of the ground) but personally I doubt it was by very much. In other words: Judge could legitamately believe Khalidi ran to the same form. In my opinion the most likely is Khalidi was a little below his Ascot form, and that it’s unlikely he was more than a few pounds below his best; with Crystal Ocean probably improving to reverse placings with Khalidi. In my opinion Crystal Ocean is physically the type to progress, did not settle fully at Ascot and didn’t get the best of rides – rushing around the field on the turn… and the fact he settled better at Goodwood and produced impressive sectionals all goes towards suggesting to me Crystal Ocean improved. Notice the words “probably” and “suggests” and “likely”, for me everything is about probabilities. You might believe Crystal Ocean only ran to Ascot form and ground conditions meant Khalidi ran well below his Ascot running. That’s up to you. Form analysis is all opinions.
With any individual race any individual punter’s analysis could be correct. It’s the overall profit/loss figure that says whether a punter’s analysis is consistent enough.
Value Is EverythingCorals were 8/1 Stradivarius and 5/1 Coronet. I wondered if they were privy to jockey arrangements.
Coral were 6/1 when I placed the bet, though I’m thankful for BOG.
I hope this is Frankie’s first error in picking them and he follows up by missing out on Cracksman in the Arc!
Well he’s hardly not going to ride Enable is he
Corals were 8/1 Stradivarius and 5/1 Coronet. I wondered if they were privy to jockey arrangements.
Coral were 6/1 when I placed the bet, though I’m thankful for BOG.
I hope this is Frankie’s first error in picking them and he follows up by missing out on Cracksman in the Arc!
Is a little disconcerting, Joe. But whenever a jockey goes against the stayer of the two am less worried. If Stradivarius were a girl and ran in the Ribblesdale or Yorkshire Oaks wouldn’t have done as well as Coronet because hasn’t got the speed. If Coronet and Stradivarius ran in a gallop I’d expect the filly to finish in front; particularly if that gallop was on a soft surface.
May be Frankie just believes (as I do) soft ground is against Stradivarius and at the time of declaring jockeys the going was expected to be Soft. Times imo are now only just on the soft side of good and it’ll all depend how many of the showers around hit Donny between now and race time. If it’s genuine soft going he’s probably made the right decision, if drying out to genuine good ground he’ll be regretting it.
Value Is EverythingAye, seems an odd one, GT. He picks a horse who’s been beaten last twice against one who has won last twice, latest win in a Group 1 and with guaranteed stamina. Whether he thinks that dropping back 2f will be seriously against Strad I don’t know. I’m with Gosden who believes 1m6f on a galloping track like Donny is about the same as the 2m on twisting turning Goodwood.
Still, I’m uneasy and I wonder if the filly has been burning up the gallops as her gender sometimes do at this time of year. I might have a saver on that basis.
Indeed. The jockey choices that make you raise your eyebrows and suck in your lips are often the most significant ones.
Interesting that Dettori has gone for Coronet. “That’s a tip in itself”, as my Father In Law says.
I was all set to back Defoe, but watching the videos back I can’t get away from Cystal Ocean. He looks to have both the stamina and speed to cope with various pace scenarios and I see the booking of Crowley as a big positive. 4/1 is probably a fair price, anything bigger I’d see as good value.
Defoe will probably drift now. Third race at Donny today only 0.166 seconds per furlong slower than Racing Post Standard. If they don’t get any more rain (and very little is forecast now) by off time Frankie will be regretting the decision not to play his Stradivarius. 17/2 is massive; get on!
Even in a 2m2f race only 1.88 secs slower than standard. 0.11 secs per furlong slower than standard. It is now Good ground.
Value Is EverythingWell I will be there tomorrow and I am already on Venice Beach and Count Octave at 12/1 and 25/1 and I think I will probably back Capri on course!!
Good Luck Everybody and enjoy
Ground drying up has changed my thinking:
My 100% book for a genuinely good ground St Leger:
4/1 Crystal Ocean, 9/2 Capri, 11/2 STRADIVARIUS, 13/2 Defoe, 10/1 Venice Beach, 14/1 COUNT OCTAVE, 14/1 Coronet, 20/1 Rekindling, 25/1 Raheen House, 66/1 Douglas Macarther, 400/1 The Anvil.Value Is EverythingA really good Leger by modern standards. Plenty of proven G1 horses in there.
I’ll be backing a couple at big prices plus Coronet.
Crystal Ocean I think is a little ‘style over substance’ and needs to prove the stamina over what will be a very well-run 1m 6f. Also a bit keen and has been outstayed once already.
I think anyone operating on the ‘Capri beat Cracksman therefore Capri is a very good horse’ level of thinking isn’t looking at things deeply enough. Cracksman obviously a different horse since then.
Stradivarius…yes I can see it although in hindsight I wonder quite how good that Goodwood Cup win was. Big Orange maybe wasn’t at his best on the ground and plenty of the other older stayers look a bit stale.
Venice Beach’s price looks bottled up, Count Octave has no legitimate claim to beating Stradivarius.
The three I like are:
Coronet – a good year for the middle distance fillies and she still has some unfinished business. Very cosy winner of the Ribblesdale, better than the result at the Curragh and looks the perfect type for 1m 6f on a fast track off a rattling pace.
Rekindling – a proven G1 performer with bundles of stamina – no reason why there should be much differential between his and Stradivarius’ price given that they have achieved similar things.
Raheen House – represents a gash trainer but two pieces of form suggest he is also a similar horse to Stradivarius.
Ground drying up has changed my thinking:
My 100% book for a genuinely good ground St Leger:
4/1 Crystal Ocean, 9/2 Capri, 11/2 STRADIVARIUS, 13/2 Defoe, 10/1 Venice Beach, 14/1 COUNT OCTAVE, 14/1 Coronet, 20/1 Rekindling, 25/1 Raheen House, 66/1 Douglas Macarther, 400/1 The Anvil.Aaaarrrrrgh! They’ve changed the forecast again.
Heavy showers from mid-day tomorrow.
Done an alternative book for genuine Good-soft:
100/30 Capri, 5/1 Crystal Ocean, 11/2 Defoe, 7/1 Stradivarius, 9/1 Venice Beach, 12/1 Coronet, 16/1 Rekindling, 22/1 Count Octave, 25/1 Raheen House, 80/1 Douglas Macarthur, 800/1 The Anvil.Shows how the ground makes a big difference in this race.
Value Is EverythingGood to soft wouldn’t bother me for Strad, GT. It’s almost a year since he last ran on it and that was respectable.
Easier ground will be to his advantage on the stamina side. I shall go in again.
Good to soft wouldn’t bother me for Strad, GT. It’s almost a year since he last ran on it and that was respectable.
Easier ground will be to his advantage on the stamina side. I shall go in again.
I expect Strad to run at least respectably on good-soft, Joe; but running “respectable” isn’t good enough. Action and form (improving on a sound surface) and the fact Frankie has jumped ship and connections believe he’s not at his best on the soft side of good… all suggest his chance is better on at least good ground. The percentage also to do with rivals possible going requirements; ie when others chance is increased by good-soft ground those percentage points need to come from somewhere, those that may (and only may) not like good-soft. You’re right that if acting on good-soft it’ll actually increase his chances due to an increased stamina test; why I’ve reduced Strad’s chances only 2.5% from 15% to 12.5%.
Value Is EverythingA side note to all the ground/tactics/betting angling.
Is this as good a St Leger we’ve seen in the past 20 years? It must be.
And is stall 1 a slight worry for Crystal Ocean supporters at all? Given the Ballydoyle pacemakers likely to go off too fast isn’t their every chance he’ll end up with horses fading back on him and nowhere to manoeuvre around?
Ground drying up has changed my thinking:
My 100% book for a genuinely good ground St Leger:
4/1 Crystal Ocean, 9/2 Capri, 11/2 STRADIVARIUS, 13/2 Defoe, 10/1 Venice Beach, 14/1 COUNT OCTAVE, 14/1 Coronet, 20/1 Rekindling, 25/1 Raheen House, 66/1 Douglas Macarther, 400/1 The Anvil.Aaaarrrrrgh! They’ve changed the forecast again.
Heavy showers from mid-day tomorrow. 😥Done an alternative book for genuine Good-soft:
100/30 Capri, 5/1 Crystal Ocean, 11/2 Defoe, 7/1 Stradivarius, 9/1 Venice Beach, 12/1 Coronet, 16/1 Rekindling, 22/1 Count Octave, 25/1 Raheen House, 80/1 Douglas Macarthur, 800/1 The Anvil.Shows how the ground makes a big difference in this race.
So on good ground you have my filly at 14/1.
And on soft ground have her at 12/1.
Blimey.
When I placed my bet 2 months or so ago now, I was hoping for a decent sized field and a good gallop to aim at…
I’ve got that.
And there’s even the strong possibility that she’s been absolutely flying at home as Frankie has made the brave but potentially enlightening choice to ride her.
I think that you are way off with 12s and 14s in my genuine opinion.
5/1 to 7/1 is far more like it.
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