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Had a small bet on Yucatan for this @ 48.0
Interesting they gave him a break till the second half of the season and his form with Capri & Rekindling is certainly looking better than it did a couple of months back.
I’m not as confident in Glencadem Glory after his Ascot race.
I backed coronet when she won at Ascot as well as when beaten in the Oaks and I think she’s a good bet here at 14s
Them two will do for me
Venice Beach seems largely ignored after his Derby effort. If he hadn’t run there, he would have been on everyone’s mind as the horse who beat winner Wings Of Eagles in the Chester Vase.
Venice Beach is in the betting for the Grand Prix De Paris and the irony is that, should he win that race, he won’t head for the Leger but more likely towards something better than the now annually sub-standard Classic. Most horses that you feel are good enough to win a Derby are unlikely to take in a Leger and when Camelot did, to go for the Triple Crown, it looked like they screwed him up for the Arc after another slog fest earlier in the Irish Derby.
I felt Cracksman just petered out slightly at Epsom and in the Irish version he seemed to head Capri very briefly, only to have the other horse get back up by staying just that shade better. Cracksman only just bettered Permian at Epsom in the trial race and I am not sure I would be taking 5/1 on him over the Leger trip.
Will Capri run? It would surely be better to try to win an Arc with him and this looks a very open year. Almanzor keeps having his reappearance pushed back and Minding may never run again.
I don’t really fancy much here at the odds. I’m just hoping Venice Beach can give me a run for my 50/1. I was going to back Venice Beach for the Grand Prix De Paris at the opening 8/1, with my original pick Recoletos seemingly not supplemented for the race after his good third in the French Derby. I’ve sort of lost enthusiasm at the moment though and crap rides like the one Trais Fluors at Chantilly today don’t help matters.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Losing the run of myself here with this race lol
Added Defoe at 40’s, as he’s a horse I really like, and think he looks highly progressive. I really should leave it at the 2 now……….unless of course Lancaster Bomber should trap here
Disaster for the Crackheads as Cracksman has not been entered.
On the bright side, both of my two have.
Good work JonnyG
I have already bet Venice Beach here and now that the entries have been published I will have another try. I think that i might get better odds when the firms reshuffle their odds, but I have be Orderofthegarter at 25-1 each way.
I think I would have to leave it with my original pairing for now but if either did not turn up for this, I would love to be with Coronet. I thought that was a great run from her yesterday and 12-1 is generous.
12-1 looks generous to me as well Kris + I have had a few shillings on her at that price to win
I know that Douglas McCarthur has other possible engagements but I have also bet him at 40-1 each way
Unusually for me I am still on my original selection, placed long ago, at 50/1. I saw Venice Beach as the type for the race, so had a wager on him early. When he won the Chester Vase I was happy enough. He’s not captured the public imagination but he’s creeping in slightly now, with not much 20/1 left.
I prefer mile and a half horses going up in trip to 2 mile horses coming down to the 14F when it comes to the St Leger. Stradivarius is fancied but is he really fast enough to beat an Irish Derby winner? I have long felt that it was madness to see Capri 4/1 and Stradivarius 5/1.
Stradivarius beat Big Orange but that is the only piece of form he has that is anywhere near good enough and that Group 1 race hasn’t panned out well. Rightly or wrongly, I believe there are faster horses in this race.
Crystal Ocean is going the right way and he ran behind the ill fated Permian a couple of times. He did OK in the Dante for a horse of so little experience and my overall feeling is that he is classier than Stradivarius. He won readily last time and had the Leger look about him. It’s debatable that he should be shorter than an Irish Derby winner though.
Coronet tends to get outpaced and stay on in her own time. In theory the trip will suit but I believe Enable is in a class of her own and the other 3yo fillies lack class at the trip.
Defoe is a ridiculous price in my opinion. An Irish Derby winner at 4/1 and a Group 3 winner at 6/1 makes no sense to me and his last win has not been working out and his form through Frontiersman looks a bit dubious to me, it seems too much of a coincidence that the Godolphin horse has never lived up to his 8 lbs rise for being 2nd to Highland Reel in the Coronation Cup. Defoe is a big lay for me here in one of the better looking Legers in a while.
In the end I settled on a bet on Capri at 4/1. He beat Cracksman, while Venice Beach got thrashed by the same horse. Happy enough to have 50/1 for the dream result with my early bet but I am not confident by any means of him winning it. Crystal Ocean has to be respected on the upward path. I think he has the scope to confirm Royal Ascot for with Raheen House, in theory he should really increase his advantage if he stays.
I’d be against Stradavarius and Defoe at the odds, they seem to have enough to do for the odds they are.
Venice Beach 50/1 and Capri 4/1 are my two bets.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good post Steve,
I’ve parted with a couple of quid on Capri too, like you say the Irish Derby is the standout race.
I do like Defoe but certainly not at the price. I had to laugh at Atzeni in the stewards room the last time out insisting he was on the best horse blah blah, what price would he have been if Wall of Fire had beat him?. When I race my Son home from school and give him a lead he will always try and block me when I challenge. When I lead and slow the pace down and he comes to challenge I can stay in a straight line as I know I’m the fastest…….
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Love the fifties you have for VENICE BEACH Steve I have backed him myself but at 12/1 and the other one I have had a bet on is COUNT OCTAVE who ran second to Stradivarius at Ascot and was beaten five lengths by Venice Beach at Chester when not acting on the track IMO. And at 25/1 looks over priced when you consider Stradivarius is a quarter of the price and only beat it a neck!!
I shall be there Saturday so will probably have more on VB on the day!!
P.S. If Mythical Magic turns up for the Champagne I shall be on him big time!!
Crystal Ocean has done little to justify being favourite IMO. Defoe’s price is, as others have stated, ridiculous.
Clearly more of a case to be made for Capri, but I wouldn’t have him either. I am not convinced he stayed the Derby trip at Epsom and the way the Irish Derby unfolded was a bit of a gift. That in itself is enough for me to steer clear. I also noted with interest that AOB has sent 2 of his 12 Irish Derby winners here and both were turned over at 2/5 & 9/4 favs. I can see Capri going off fav and being turned over too.
Stradivarius @ 13/2
I forgot to mention, regarding Coronet, that the form of her Ribblesdale win is utterly woeful, with 1 win and 15 unplaced efforts from 16 subsequent runs. The sole win was from Alluringly in a Listed race that has been working out awfully. Alluringly won that race by a neck and, in all honesty, I don’t think you could rely on anything that ran there to actually be worthy of a 100 rated. Alluringly herself has been unsighted twice since.
I think Coronet is awful value at 13/2 with Ladbrokes. I reckon she should be 14/1 but hey ho. With the soft/heavy ground I could see Coronet out the back and struggling to close despite the extra distance. I believe Stradivarius is miles better value than the filly at similar enough odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d have strongly fancied Stradivarius on a sound surface, but form, action and breeding suggests to me one to take on if soft. That’s in complete contrast to Defoe (very rounded action). Soft ground wouldn’t worry me about Capri either, Galileo horses out of 12f winners usually stay really well and has good form on a softish surface. Like Stradivarius, Crystal Ocean is by Sea The Stars who’s more a firm surface sire. Although unlike the Gosden horse, Stoute’s representitive has form with at least some give. However, soft brings stamina more in to the equation and where as I’d be confident Crystal Ocean staying in a truly run St Leger on a sound surface, have far more doubts on soft. If believing the Coronet form with Enable/Queens Trust she has a chance, but unlike Queens Trust was ridden for second that day. Flattered by coming from so far back?
Officially “Soft” now, forecast is for a fair bit of heavy rain tonight, showers Wednesday, but then very lttle before race time.
Haven’t had a bet yet, going will imo be crucial. On good ground I’d have had Crystal Ocean and Stradivarius first and second favourite over Capri and Defoe in my workings out. On soft the opposite. Wish I’d done this analysis a couple of days ago, before market moves.
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