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Wow! Well done, Botchy, you can trade like Arthur Daley at that price. It’ll be a pleasant few weeks lead up for you.
Is Capri going for the Arc? I’d have thought with Highland Reel & St George already primed for it they’d put Capri away until next year.
Capri was cut to 20-1 (from 25) by Ladbrokes and Paddy Power for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and O’Brien added: “We thought Capri would actually improve for this race as he had a hiccup before York. The Arc is something we’ll think about for him, but the lads will make that decision.”
GT I actually thought Doyle did too much in the early stages with Strad and would like to have seen him held onto a while longer. But circumstances probably dictated the ride rather than plans, especially when they turned in and he had to come round the tiring pacemaker. He got a lovely run through there and when Doyle found himself on the rail I think he just committed and hoped he’d outstay them.
Only seen it a couple of times, Joe. imo Doyle didn’t exactly “take a pull” once getting to the front, but took it easier than I’d like to see for a short time (may be 50 to 100 yards). Only going for home in ernest at exactly the same time as Ryan Moore on Capri. To my mind it stands to reason the 2 miler would take longer to get to his top speed than the 1m4f Classic winner and the 2 miler would’ve sustained that top speed for longer. Hence why it was for me a little disappointing.
Of course had the early pace been overly strong it would’ve been right not to go for home until later (even with a stayer). But they didn’t seem out on their feet at the finish and overall time of 1.04 seconds slower than Racing Post Standard. Technically not as as good a time as the Doncaster Cup yesterday; (Although a better performance because Desert Skyline carried less weight). But those two facts together suggest to me it was not an out and out (how Simon Rowlands might say) 100% pace. I’ll be interested to see Simon’s assessment of pace, but at the moment seemed just a bit of leaway to go for home a touch sooner. Realise am being hyper critical. Generally I thought it a good ride by Doyle and in all probability didn’t make the difference between winning and losing anyway.
Value Is EverythingWell that was my point Ginger. O’Brien team has unlimited resources so will always have an advantage over other outfits, however some of that advantage would be reduced if they weren’t allowed to adopt team tactics like they were today. The site of the four of them dominating from the outset was a bit ridiculous.
Btw my point about the Anvil was not that he wasn’t good enough to run, just that there seems no difference between running a horse with a low rating who has absolutely no chance of winning, and running the anvil and giving him a suicidal ride where he has absolutely no chance of winning, surely it amounts to the same thing. And that’s not to even mention anyone who was unlucky enough to back The Anvil.
Oh, I see what you mean, Judge.
Running The Anvil like that didn’t help anyone though, it didn’t help any of the other Coolmore runners, because they all (thankfully along with everyone else) rightly ignored him. So it made no difference to this particular race.
I am however convinced that part of Ballydoyle’s “team tactics” is often to deliberately send one off far too fast in the hope some rivals ruin their own chance by going with their non-trier; increasing Ballydoyle’s overall chances of having the winner with their other runners. BHA are too weak to take action.
I think in this case Ginger they had a look at Crystal Ocean’s goodwood win and thought “Oh hello we’ve got a serious rival here” and thought, let’s run the absolute finish out of these buggers, which also takes out horses like Coronet. I think if this race had been slowly run Crystal Ocean would have won clearly, yes it seemed he was running on well enough but he just didn’t have that kick at the end that he probably would have done if they hadn’t gone a ridiculous gallop.
O’Brien can adopt these tactics in races like the Derby and the St Leger because all of his are bred to stay very well, galileo types very rarely fail due to grounds of stamina. You could say that if you don’t stay the entire distance then you probably don’t deserve to win a St Leger, and you’d probably be right, it is slight sour grapes on my part. However I do think Crystal Ocean is a serious horse for next year with races like the Hardwicke, Coronation stakes and king george all coming into his sights.
I think in this case Ginger they had a look at Crystal Ocean’s goodwood win and thought “Oh hello we’ve got a serious rival here” and thought, let’s run the absolute finish out of these buggers, which also takes out horses like Coronet. I think if this race had been slowly run Crystal Ocean would have won clearly, yes it seemed he was running on well enough but he just didn’t have that kick at the end that he probably would have done if they hadn’t gone a ridiculous gallop.
But they didn’t go a “ridiculous gallop”, Judge; only The Anvil did and he was ignored – so it made no difference to how the rest ran.
All other runners went a fairly strong pace, nothing out of the ordinary. Yes, they did probably make it a fairly strong pace to test Crystal Ocean, but that’s ok and completely within the rules. Yes, had they gone slow Crystal Ocean would’ve won, but everyone knew that and therefore Coolmore were always going to make sure of a strongish pace. Also gives a true result for the staying Classic. I’d much rather that than a slowly run race suiting the one with most speed. Stamina should be key to winning a Leger.
Value Is EverythingHowever I do think Crystal Ocean is a serious horse for next year with races like the Hardwicke, Coronation stakes and king george all coming into his sights.
Agreed Judge, Crystal Ocean will prove better than Capri next year.
Value Is EverythingNot sure where you get that idea. Capri is a serious horse who is obviously improving. Having won the Irish Derby on merit as he kicked again near the winning post he was one of the bets of the season today. I wouldn’t be surprised if he became the next Highland reel as he looks a tough horse but obviously prefers cut in the ground.
Not sure where you get that idea. Capri is a serious horse who is obviously improving. Having won the Irish Derby on merit as he kicked again near the winning post he was one of the bets of the season today. I wouldn’t be surprised if he became the next Highland reel as he looks a tough horse but obviously prefers cut in the ground.
Have to agree with this, i dont see any evidence that capri wont get better with age, hes improved every run and is now a dual G1 winner…. kicked on at the line
Yes Capri is a decent horse but just can’t warm to him, maybe that’s because he is trained by the Coolmore operation which has everything in their favour, if he was trained by some obscure northern trainer I would be cheering him to the rafters. Not very objective I know. Just find it difficult to cheer for these billionaires.
Not sure about the form. Looking back at the video again the whole field were quite bunched, you’d think with the decent gallop they went the field would be more stretched out, my feeling is that Capri is a reasonable winner of the St Leger but no more than that.
Not sure where you get that idea. Capri is a serious horse who is obviously improving. Having won the Irish Derby on merit as he kicked again near the winning post he was one of the bets of the season today. I wouldn’t be surprised if he became the next Highland reel as he looks a tough horse but obviously prefers cut in the ground.
Have to agree with this, i dont see any evidence that capri wont get better with age, hes improved every run and is now a dual G1 winner…. kicked on at the line
“Evidence”.
Capri ran at least as well today as he did in the Irish Derby, might have improved a pound or two but no more.Ham, you said earlier that Capri was a long way in front of Crystal Ocean; so therefore in your view Crystal Ocean must have improved a whole lot more than Capri today to get within 1/2 a length. Isn’t it logical Crystal Ocean will extend that improvement next year?
Crystal Ocean has had only 6 races compared to Capri’s 10.
Crystal Ocean’s form after just 6 races is a lot better than Capri after 6 races. The former is still learning.Then you’ve got to look at how Sir Michael trains his best horses, in most cases still progressing well in to their four year old career. O’Brien trains many older horses to win Group 1 races, but they’ve usually reached the end of their improvement by that time.
You’ve given Highland Reel as an example, Mickey. Yes, he’s won many races at four and five years old, consistency a credit to his trainer. But in all those victories at four and five he has never bettered the high Timeform rating given at the end of his three year old season. Order Of St George the same.
Considering on St Leger running there’s only a pound between them… All the above is evidence that imo suggests Crystal Ocean will be a better four year old than Capri.
Value Is EverythingAny news on the Defoe run….?
Outclassed, surely?
I think this is going to be the best Leger form since…since before I can remember!
I poo-pooed Capri pre-race but he outstayed Crystal Ocean and beat two bang solid stayers in Stradivarius and Rekindling. Both of those already have G1 and G2 form in the book to give a solid feel to the form. Likewise Coronet in fifth, who also adds a bit more meat to the result. So too Count Octave who replicated his Queen’s Vase effort.
Capri might be difficult for Ballydoyle to place now. Presumably he’ll stay in training as they have better models for breeding at Coolmore. Assuming he gets found out in the Arc, I could see him running the ‘Fame And Glory’ schedule next year – bossing weaker G1s at 1m 4f with the aide of two pacemakers. I guess it also depends on their other horses. Maybe they’d try to shape him into a Gold Cup horse if Order Of St George retires.
Crystal Ocean ran an outstanding race for one with such obvious stamina doubts. He was outstayed but only gave way inside the final half furlong. He’ll be a very nice horse at 1m 4f next year. I wonder if a better trainer might have won the Derby with him, though.
Stradivarius lost nothing in defeat and should return to the Cup ranks as one of the leading forces next year. Likewise Rekindling, who I’d love to back for the Ascot Gold Cup on the back of such a dour staying effort. There’s more to come from this one, especially at extreme distances.
FWIW, Stoute says Crystal Ocean will never run again beyond 12f.
I remember him saying that before the race too, Joe. This was always going to be a one off.
I know Stoute believes Crystal Ocean didn’t stay, but how can that be true when he’s second in a Classic with Stradivarius behind him?
Although it’s posssible that although he “stayed” the trip, might have been “outstayed” by the winner; if you get what I mean?
Value Is Everything
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