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I wish you the best of luck Kris.
I was very happy to be with Douglas McCarthur each way at 40-1, and you might just have talked me into having some 50-1 as well.
I am getting increasingly confident about my Venice Beach bet and for a mainly small time punter, and habitual loser, he would dwarf any decent winner I’ve ever had before. I feel compelled to have just one last go, and now that Stan James have pushed him out to 50-1, I cannot resist a few pounds each way on Douglas McCarthur.
Good luck bud
I love bets like yours.
I convinced myself over about 10 weeks at the start of this year that One for Arthur would win the national. I knew it would dwarf any win I’d had before and didn’t want to be greedy but I found myself every few days sticking a little more on it.
Win or lose, that will remain my favourite bet as I was convinced he was gonna run a big one and the excitement over them weeks for the race built up. That final week was great but nervous all in one. That remains my only ever 4 figure winner as I am a generally small stakes punter other than a couple of times a year when I fancy one antepost like that.
If Coronet doesn’t win for me, I genuinely will be willing yours on.
For what it’s worth, I do agree that it is overpriced.
Love the enthusiasm on crystal ocean and of course you may be right judge, but hes running against a proven group 1 winner in capri and stadivarius etc
Of course improvement can happen, but he hasnt shown nearly wnough form to suggest hes a sure thing, if he wins id be really surprised(not saying he wont)
Douglas macarthur e/w at 40s (considering his form tie with capri) is a great bet in my eyes and capri on the nose is also a great bet at 4s
Convinced myself to go in again on both 😂 For the 3rd time
Love the enthusiasm on crystal ocean and of course you may be right judge, but hes running against a proven group 1 winner in capri and stadivarius etc
Of course improvement can happen, but he hasnt shown nearly wnough form to suggest hes a sure thing, if he wins id be really surprised(not saying he wont)
Douglas macarthur e/w at 40s (considering his form tie with capri) is a great bet in my eyes and capri on the nose is also a great bet at 4s
Convinced myself to go in again on both 😂 For the 3rd time
The number following the word “Group” means nothing, ham. “Form” is how one horse runs against another.
Crystal Ocean beat Khalidi 3 1/2 lengths at Goodwood last time in the “Group 3” Gordon Stakes and wasn’t all out to do so. Improving and reversing places from Ascot where Crystal Ocean didn’t settle fully and didn’t get the best of rides – rushed around the field. Beating Khalidi by 3 lengths further at Goodwood than Permian did when 1/2 length second in the “Group 2” King Ed at Royal Ascot.
Permian then went on to all but win the “Group 1” Grand Prix De Paris.So on “form” it’s easy to argue Crystal Ocean is a 3 lengths better animal than the “Group 1” horse Permian was. Now, may be Khalidi ran below his best at Goodwood, I doubt it was by very much. May be Permian improved a bit in France, but he had had plenty of racing before that and so doubt it was by much – if anything.
Either way, even as a Capri backer imo Crystal Ocean right now deserves to be rated at the very least close to Group 1 winners Capri and Stradivarius and probably has more improvement in him. Personally, my issue with Crystal Ocean is will he stay the trip in these conditions? If he does I have no doubt he’s good enough.
Value Is EverythingLove the enthusiasm on crystal ocean and of course you may be right judge, but hes running against a proven group 1 winner in capri and stadivarius etc
Of course improvement can happen, but he hasnt shown nearly wnough form to suggest hes a sure thing, if he wins id be really surprised(not saying he wont)
Douglas macarthur e/w at 40s (considering his form tie with capri) is a great bet in my eyes and capri on the nose is also a great bet at 4s
Convinced myself to go in again on both 😂 For the 3rd time
The number following the word “Group” means nothing, ham. “Form” is how one horse runs against another.
Crystal Ocean beat Khalidi 3 1/2 lengths at Goodwood last time in the “Group 3” Gordon Stakes and wasn’t all out to do so. Improving and reversing places from Ascot where Crystal Ocean didn’t settle fully and didn’t get the best of rides – rushed around the field. Beating Khalidi by 3 lengths further at Goodwood than Permian did when 1/2 length second in the “Group 2” King Ed at Royal Ascot.
Permian then went on to all but win the “Group 1” Grand Prix De Paris.So on “form” it’s easy to argue Crystal Ocean is a 3 lengths better animal than the “Group 1” horse Permian was. Now, may be Khalidi ran below his best at Goodwood, I doubt it was by very much. May be Permian improved a bit in France, but he had had plenty of racing before that and so doubt it was by much – if anything.
Either way, even as a Capri backer imo Crystal Ocean right now deserves to be rated at the very least close to Group 1 winners Capri and Stradivarius and probably has more improvement in him. Personally, my issue with Crystal Ocean is will he stay the trip in these conditions? If he does I have no doubt he’s good enough.
I understand how you evaluate what form is but it dosent work that way for me how he beat this horse on this race compared to how that horse ran against another, if all races were ran the exact same way i would evaluate in such a way, but the fact of the matter is times in races dont really matter unless your looking at speed figures all it does is confirm ground status, if it worked how you anaylse tge above then if you re ran all handicaps 2/3/4 times back youd get the same result (which obviously you wouldnt) because all it takes is for one horse to dictate a slow or furious pace and the entire race has a different outcome – completely different.
The fact of the matter is the distances with khalidi were likely ground dependant not maturing or improving form either in those 5 weeks but if you pretend that it is improvement that was the main factor for the way he beat him from may to june then whos to say capri hasnt taken a leap like say cracksman has, arguably youd think that capri comes from a stable who train them in such a manner that hed be entitled to take a much larger step forward than crystal ocean
(I know you said your in the capri camp)
And to clarify, the number after the word group means everything, as it stands right now at this stage of the season crystal ocean has 0 group 1 form to his name what he did against a horse on different ground on a different track does not substitute for only being a group 3 winner ( example being, if they ran the goodwood race at ascot on GF with double the runners would crystal ocean have beaten khalidi so far) the answer is no/yes/ask a fortune teller, its fiction your trying to turn into logic and it does not work that way.
Ps, permian would eat crystal ocean for lunch. Your arguement is your own methodology, you cant say crystal ocean is a 3 length better horse for the reasons youv listed, its fiction.
Facts are, unless crystal ocean wins this, he still has 0 group 1 form which makes him still only a group 3 horse, you cant say hes a group 1 horse until he actually wins a group 1
Would be a great pitch for a stud farm
“Standing is crystal ocean a group 3 winner who technically is a group 1 winner because he beat khalidi further than permian”I understand how you evaluate what form is
No ham, you evidently don’t.
You don’t have a clue how I evaluate form.Value Is EverythingBut Ham we’re not trying to sell stallions, we’re trying to assess form, and as Ginger says Crystal Ocean has outstanding form in the book. He wouldn’t be one of the favourites otherwise. The reason he doesn’t have group one form is simple- he hasn’t run in one. They could have run him in the derby but Michael Stoute views him as a long-term prospect. The fact Stoute has aimed him at this rate suggests to me that he thinks he’ll be suited by the distance (his running on third in the dante suggests as much, as well as the win at goodwood of course)
With improving three year olds group one form isn’t the be all and end all. Did harbour law have group one form? did encke have group one form? did masked marvel have group one form? did conduit have group one form? did sixties icon have group one form? To say you’ll be shocked if crystal ocean wins because he doesn’t have the form suggests to me you are either pocket talking or you are just trying to hype it up.
Stradivarius should be 9/2 imo and is a fine bet at 13/2.
Improving in leaps and bounds, ground drying out, with a trainer going for his 5th win in the race – too big: back it.
if it worked how you anaylse tge above then if you re ran all handicaps 2/3/4 times back youd get the same result (which obviously you wouldnt) because all it takes is for one horse to dictate a slow or furious pace and the entire race has a different outcome – completely different.
Of course analysing form does not come up with a definite winner/same result, ham. A horse’s best “form” is only one thing to take in to account when having a bet, there are many other considerations. Analysing form is all about how good a punter believes horse/s is/are likely to be given the prevailing conditions. Those “conditions” including ground, distance, likely pace, course, jockey, trainer in form, temperament, likely progression/regression etc. Analysing every aspect of “form” and deciding whether the price available makes it worth a bet.
If only it were as easy as horse A is a a Group 1 winner, therefore he has a much better chance than horse B who’s only a Group 3 winner.
Value Is EverythingStradivarius should be 9/2 imo and is a fine bet at 13/2.
Improving in leaps and bounds, ground drying out, with a trainer going for his 5th win in the race – too big: back it.
I agree Joe. Considering the headwind yesterday times suggested to me it was more like good-soft than soft. With drying winds and a comparitively dry forecast St Leger could easily be run on a sound surface.
I’ve taken some 15/2 on the machine and would now be my best result.
Now is also the time to get involved with Count Octave @ 25/1. Can’t see that lasting.Value Is EverythingGinge regardless if you think i understand it or not, a form line is not simply how a horse runs against another as you eradicate the most important facts doing that (conditions) so i dont do it that way, dosent mean im saying its not the way to do it of course we all have our own ways, youv punted plenty winners im sure big and small
Judge im not saying you need to have group 1 form to win this atall lol im saying on what hes done and whos in the field he dosent deserve to be sitting around half the price of stradivarius for example, the price is wrong…
And if what youv said joe and ginge is correct about the ground id have to have something on stradivarius, he and crystal oceans prices should be the other way round, 13/2 is a gift if the ground dries out
Hardly a ringing vote of confidence for Stradivarius that Frankie has chosen to ride Coronet.
Corals were 8/1 Stradivarius and 5/1 Coronet. I wondered if they were privy to jockey arrangements.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I backed Capri win only in the end at 4/1. I’ll now be looking to cover myself on Defoe but will wait to see if he touches 5/1 and maybe have a little bit on Stradivarius given the current juice in his price.
But my query is why Spencer isn’t on Raheen House?
Last year’s winner Harbour Law was rated 102. He and three others were rated lower than the lowest rated horse in this year’s renewal, Count Octave on 104.
There are 7 runners rated higher, or equal to, last year’s second rated runner(s), the two who were rated 113, in this season’s renewal.
From a simplistic viewpoint you would hardly be dropping to your knees in shock at an Irish Derby winner lifting the Leger. Perhaps we are all overanalysing this and 4/1 Capri is the gift of the decade.
I’ve had some of that and fear Crystal Ocean most.
I am not that hopeful on Venice Beach, simply because the race has more quality than I had expected. Were it last year’s standard I would have been more confident. However at 50/1 it is a dream ticket that is still alive from the start of the flat season.
I have Defoe and Coronet as lays and expect to get both beaten fairly comfortably. I think they are silly odds myself but good luck to everyone. I hope for the sake of the race that something with a handicapper’s rating doesn’t win again. Yes, we all get the fairy story angle but the race is struggling to look like a group 1 and winners of low ratings make the race look Group 2 at best.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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