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Two big races for juveniles a week Sunday and it’s the fillies race that looks more open and worthy of a bet.
I have gone for Alpha Centauri at 6/1 in the Moyglare, if for no other reason than O’Brien may not send all of his contenders.
Clemmie is 11/4 Fav, with Happily and Magical both sitting at 4/1. September is 6/1,along with Alpha Centauri.
Will September run? Turned over last time, I would doubt they will throw her into a hotter pot this time around. That then leaves the question of how many and which one(s) O’Brien sends?
Clemmie was behind Alpha Centauri last time and does she really warrant being less than half the odds of the Harrington filly, who has had this race as her target for a long time now?
Only one future winner has come from Clemmie’s two wins. There was nothing from the Group 3 Grangecon she won and just Nyaleti from the Duchess Of Cambridge race at Ascot. Plenty has been said here about Nyaleti’s future so a good filly to focus on is Mamba Noire, who was 3rd to Clemmie in both her wins.
Beaten slightly less far on the second occasion, Mamba Noire went on to be beaten by both Tajaanus and Threading by distances that would suggest Clemmie would not have much in hand of either of those two fillies.
For me, the form level does not suggest that Clemmie stands above them to the extent the betting implies. Of course, she can improve again but others in the race are also open to improvement.
Magical was a bit of a surprise winner last time, when September got the bums rush from Moore. There seemed little fluke about it and she was game in front that day. Happily was more fancied and beat September but she could not make up the ground to catch Magical.
In the end, I felt Alpha Centauri had as good a chance as any after an Albany effort that looks reliable form. With the possibility that O’Brien may trim his party, the scope for contracting from 6/1 is there.
The National Stakes sees Expert Eye 4/5 Fav with Paddy Power, Gustav Klimt is next at 6/4 and perhaps The Pentagon is a surprise entrant for those who see him as a Derby colt. If they all run, it will be great but you just feel that at least one won’t turn up.
The Pentagon could be some value at 11/2 if Aidan ducks the Guineas favourite in Expert Eye at this stage. The Stoute colt has the most solid form at the moment in my opinion and other than a potential speculation on The Pentagon for an upset, I doubt I will bet on this race.
Great racing hopefully.
Moyglare Alpha Centauri 6/1 is my bet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lots of people writing September off after one dissappinting run when, in all honesty, she looked like she would come on for the run.
I like this Alpha Centuari too, just my type of horse, huge with a lot of scope. Was disappointed she didn’t win last time though.
Clemmie I backed on her debut as she drifted to what I felt was too big a price plus I liked the pedigree with her being a full sister to Churchill. She did remarkably well to almost win that day given how poorly she started. She’s done very well since which hasn’t surprised me. I guess of the fillies around she could be the one to look an absolute superstar by the end of the season, but the Harrington filly seems the value play here. The only thing nagging at me is why didn’t she win last time, when I had her down as an absolute moral.
I too am a member of the Alpha Centauri fan club and still painfully remember her defeat at Royal Ascot every time I see her name.
But I won’t have a bet until the final decs are out and I know who’ll be representing Ballydoyle. I’d also rather have a clear idea of what the ground will be like so powder will be kept dry for now.
But I won’t have a bet until the final decs are out and I know who’ll be representing Ballydoyle. I’d also rather have a clear idea of what the ground will be like so powder will be kept dry for now.
The same goes for the National Stakes although I for one think Gustav Klimt would win cosily if lining up.
The ground could decide the race. If there is a lot of rain then happily will take some stopping and I think she will line up for the race. If it gets heavy I can see Clemmie and September being kept for the fillies mile on champions day. If I was to bet it would be happily as she wasn’t stopping last time and will handle the going. Ill wait for the Dec’s for the national stakes as I’m sure aiden will have an eye on Ascot,Paris and the breeders cup.id expect Gustav klint to be in the line up and the ballydoyle wad being put on it.
I’m thinking that if it comes up gutters, The Pentagon might be the one. I doubt Stoute will want his fellow having a hard time and Gustav Klimt may also be pulled out.
The consensus on this forum seems to suggest that The Pentagon is the one with the stamina, so he seems the sole potential value in the current list.
11/2 would look massive in the event of 4/5 and 6/4 shots being pulled out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My good friend Theobald holds an entry here, but for some reason neither he nor Verbal Dexterity are priced up by firms.
Bolger is quoted to have said this:
“Verbal Dexterity and Theobald will run next weekend, but the plan is to keep them apart. They are both in the National Stakes and Theobald will run wherever the best ground is.”
The ground at the Curragh is currently Good to Yielding, Yielding in the straight, and there is a good bit of rain forecasted between now and Sunday, so perhaps Bolger has made a decision and the bookies are aware of this. I haven’t been able to find anything in the media that suggests he will skip it for definite.
I think 7f is short of his optimum, but a strongly run 7f on soft ground will suit him more than some of the others I think. He looks to have plenty of stamina and if it turns into a slog I think he is gutsy enough to grind out a win. With Ballydoyle’s high profile entries taking the majority of the punter’s money, I think he could pop up at a nice price.
With the current conditions I am more wary of the Pentagon than the favourite Gustav Klimt, but there simply isn’t sufficient evidence to pen him as a good ground lover, he may well prove to be as equally effective on soft ground.
I am completely off Jim Bolger these days. I can’t recall seeing any of his promising first time out winners going on to do anything of note for a while now.
I’ve had a small bet on The Pentagon, I simply don’t believe Gustav Klimt is value at 1/3. I’ll probably need the rains to come for them to run the deemed Derby colt in most places.
Gustav Klimt was a winner despite the trouble in running last time but they were in a heap in behind him that day and I like to see two or three come clear of the pack to make it look like there is a bit of class about the leading protagonists in a group race.
I just can’t back the Fav here with Beckford being no duck egg despite finishing second last time.
I feel September may go elsewhere and I am not a big fan of Clemmie’s form to be honest.
I’ve done Alpha Centauri but the Harrington stable is currently 2/43, which is less than 5% and I am a bit concerned about that level, although it is hardly a talent packed flat team they have.
Another single and a double with The Pentagon at 11/2 each of the two purely because I was 2/2 on Saturday past.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Pair now priced up now i think Verbal Dexteriry ran well last time over 6f which was short of his trip. 7f perfect only worry for him i thought he ran at tyros or other 7f races but if plan run him here then Dewhurst maybe gave him break for both races.
Think Dawn Approach last real good 2yo he had
Magical is the one for money, into 11/4 JF now. Happily is sliding the other way, out to 5/1.
Looks like Aidan will run all his good ones here and that’s always a bad sign for me. Perhaps he’s simply in the dark about which one is improving fastest.
Alpha Centauri’s demolition of Actress looks as good a performance as I have seen this year. The latter filly flopped last time but was clearly useful.
1 lb covers four fillies and a big factor will be which one Ryan Moore is on. The vibes suggest he will be getting on board Magical at the moment.
I made Alpha Centauri 7/2 for this race and we will see if I was correct in seeing 6/1 as the value.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Magical is the one for money, into 11/4 JF now. Happily is sliding the other way, out to 5/1.
Looks like Aidan will run all his good ones here and that’s always a bad sign for me. Perhaps he’s simply in the dark about which one is improving fastest.
Alpha Centauri’s demolition of Actress looks as good a performance as I have seen this year. The latter filly flopped last time but was clearly useful.
1 lb covers four fillies and a big factor will be which one Ryan Moore is on. The vibes suggest he will be getting on board Magical at the moment.
I made Alpha Centauri 7/2 for this race and we will see if I was correct in seeing 6/1 as the value.
I wonder if he will jump shipmto magical after saying happily was the best he had sat on
Think ill take a play on happily incase he stays loyal
Ground will be a big factor, whats ot to be anyone ?
Think Moore still rates Happily but feels she be better suited on fast ground when she faces horses in group one.So that why she drifting way weather is doubt she run.Might be saved for fillies mile instead.
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