Moyglare 2017

[stevecaution]

darren83 wrote:

Off topic i know but Steve i just open a nfl thread at general sports so any views hope let me know

I’ll check it out Darren. I was going to be better prepared for the NFL season this year but my Wife’s sister passed away and the plans went out the window.

I will probably have a tentative bet and then see the week one games and check out the form.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

greenasgrass wrote:

Did Alpha Centauri/ Beckford 38-1 double for this.

I’ve had a bit of that double as well, with The Pentagon bypassing this one. Aidan has a shed load of no hopers in the National Stakes.

I have liked Beckford from the start and was a little disappointed by him last time. I’ve done Gustav Klimt at 33/1 for the 2000 Guineas, so no harm if he wins. I feel he’s a bit short for the National though and I need to see something from him soon to be confident of the Guineas. The last race he had saw an assumption he would have won cosily but I felt he was under pressure earlier than I wanted to see him and until they actually go out and win 3 lengths in a good field, I always keep a bit of doubt in thee background.

Alpha Centauri is a filly I feel will show improved form at this trip. She is only 1 lb behind on official ratings and I reckon she would have won that Albany but for the fast ground. The French filly who won that race went on to be third in the Group 1 Morny to two fast colts, Unfortunately and Havana Grey. The Burke colts are rated 117 and 113 on Offical figures, which compares to the figures for the Moyglare of:-

Happily 109
Magical 109
Clemmie 108
Alpha Centauri 108
September 101

I feel that the Albany form is as good as anything this season and Clemmie has ground to make up on Alpha Centauri from that race and over a trip which I feel may favour the Harrington filly.

Magical took a 20 lb jump in ratings last time but it’s virtually impossible she can improve that much again, purely on the average 2yo figure ceiling. She can improve again but Alpha Centauri looks to have more to give after hacking up twice and then not quite catching a clearly speedy filly on fast ground in the Albany.

I’ve had a decent handful bets on Alpha Centuari for this and a few goes on her at 20/1 for the Guineas. It’s a big day for me on Sunday.

I would be leaning towards lays on Clemmie at 3/1 and September at 6/1 this weekend. The ground is soft, yielding/soft on round at the moment.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[ham]

Gustav klimts price is a bit crazy, i do feel he would hve won easily and although he is improving and clearly well regarded, ill side with beckford for this, the extra 1f should suit and i think 6/1 against 4/11 is way, wayyyy wrong

Delano roosevelt would be an e/w if he shows up but im assuming his price is reflecting that its unlikely?

[stevecaution]

Magical continues to shorten, in to 2/1 and lower. Clemmie is 7/2 and Happily a worrying 6/1.

Paddy Power are offering huge odds on everything bar Gustav Klimt in comparison with the other firms. The field seems sure to dwindle to half a dozen in my mind, the deadwood in the field is incredible. Only The Pentagon might have shaken the leading handful up here and he’s well capable of having won it in the conditions I feel.

Beckford bumped into quite a speedy horse in Sioux Nation last time, unable to reach the 5F winner on the fast ground. Some ease and the extra furlong will prevent that scenario this time. It’s a question of whether he’s good enough. He looks solid each-way at 11/2 1-2-3, terms that I highly doubt will be available by race time.

Happily and Roly Poly are the big drifters the past couple of days in the weekend action.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

The Paddy Power boys were way off the mark as Ryan Moore rides Clemmie. They had it 7/4 and 5/1 Magical and Clemmie but scrambled to adjust to 5/2 and 3/1 after the jockey news.

Donnacha is on Magical, Seamie on September and Wayne Lordan on Happily.

Confused messages there and I’m sort of glad to be clear of that with Alpha Centauri, who is 7/2 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes but available at 9/2. 7/2 was the price I felt she should be and 9/2 is still a little bit of value to my mind.

Eight left in the National Stakes, what are the odds on one dropping out and leaving it 1-2 for place bets?

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[ham]

They obviously know more than us and sitting on clemmie must be telling, almost a certainty to go off 7/4 sunday now

Will back for a laying perspective

But i wouldnt be surprised if clemmie was hammered and unplaced in this

I wont give up on september yet, better ground and 7/1 thattl do for me

[darren83]

Nice to see VERBAL DEXTERIRY runs in national stakes as long he not do donkey work up front a big run i expect from him on him at 16/1 in this

[Voleur]

Last night I took the 6/1 on Theobald for the Champion Juvenile Stakes today in Leopardstown. Bolger said he’d run him wherever the best ground was, so I’m content that he is ahead of Verbal Dexterity in the pecking order, regardless of him running in the Group 3 race rather than the Group 1.

It looks like a hot contest, with two well bred Ballydoyle colts lining up. I’ve backed both Nelson and Theobald for the Derby, so either of those winning will be a result. Reziyra was impressive beating Nelson the last day so I’m not sure he can reverse the form. Not being by Galileo, he mightn’t take the huge leaps forward that so many of his do from run to run. However, these Frankels seem to have stamina in abundance, so perhaps conditions will put an emphasis on that. Delano Roosevelt could be anything, but market support is non-existent which is always a negative, even more so with Coolmore horses.

[stevecaution]

Modern Love 10/1
Riyazan 10/3
Alpha Centauri 6/1
Beckford 11/2

These are my 2YOs for the Irish weekend.

Modern Love made a promising start and should come forward at good odds.

Riyazan looked to quicken with powerful results last time. The jockey seemed to be holding on for grim death and I felt he may be better value than the promising Delano Roosevelt at 10/3 compared to 2/1.

The money hasn’t come for Clemmie yet, if anything the Harrington filly is the most solid in the betting. She may go Fav at this rate.

Good luck everyone.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[ham]

Weather likely to play apart, i had predicted slightly better ground and not certain im as sure on september now although obrien did state she would come on for the run but she didnt look comfortable, will they run clemmie on the predicted soft ground? Will alpha centauri want it THAT soft

Could pay to side with magical at 3/1

Will they run gustav klimt on this soft?
Likely because of the group 1 statusbut im sure its not ideal, will beckford like it this soft?

Could be a muddling day tomorrow at the curragh

[stevecaution]

Nelson turned it around with Riyazan in no uncertain terms, very impressive. I thought Delano Roosevelt was a silly price at 11/10. Theobald was never a factor and Jim Bolger just can’t seem to progress these 2YO horses at all these days. Worrying for Verbal Dexterity.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[darren83]

GUSTAV KLIMT a nr

[Gingertipster]

Am on Clemmie and Alpha Centauri for the Guineas, so I believe they’re both top quality fillies in the making. Former did really well in the Cherry Hinton considering is bred to do a lot better at 7f and a mile. Latter is a big brute of a filly – type to improve with maturity. Trouble is Jessie’s current form worries me, so have made Clemmie my main bet @ 3/1 with a saver on Alpha @ 7/2. Magical won the Debutante and is definitely a good filly, but did seem to have the run of the race that day. Don’t think there’s as much between Magical and Happily than the betting implies. 9/1 for the Happily too big to ignore. September ran well at Ascot – less well in the Debutante; is only small and may not have as much improvement in her, possibly better on firmer ground and/or needs a mile by now too. So many negatives in September.

For today’s race:
81 points @ 3/1 Clemmie
24 points @ 9/1 Happily
30 points @ 7/2 Alpha Centauri

Value Is Everything

[viktors89]

Happily is the value bet for me, though I don’t like the jockey booking, hope that either she or Alpha Centauri wins this.

[CharlesOlney]

10/3 Magical was too tempting in the end for me. There’s no more logic in that decision other than that I think she’s the best filly in the race at the trip.

As for the National Stakes, it’s taken a blow with Gustav’s withdrawal but the favourite is one I’ll take on at the extended trip and on an easier surface. I’ve chucked a few quid on Brother Bear at 9/1 and Rostropovich at 15/2.

[stevecaution]

Clemmie is a NON RUNNER now.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[CharlesOlney]

viktors89 wrote:

Happily is the value bet for me, though I don’t like the jockey booking, hope that either she or Alpha Centauri wins this.

Good shout.

Anyone know what the deduction was for Clemmie coming out?

[Author]

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