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yet ANOTHER 2nd, got 9/2 off Laddies so no damage.
Don’t give up on Galway Jack his jumping in the straight let him down when looking all over the winner. I’d like to see how he’d go for a more experienced jockey. Good sit at the third last by young Jonathan Bailey though.I’m going for small 2×1 ew doubles in the next two Hunter Chases.
JANE’S CRUSADER
X
POINT PROVEN
RESTLESS D’ARTAIXZARKAVA
How about….
Boston Bob will run in The Neptune. Evens
Sir Des Champs goes for The Jewson 6/4
First Lieutenant goes for The RSA 1/10
Peddler’s Cross doesn’t run at The Festival 8/1
Grand Crus goes for The Gold Cup 6/4
Kauto Star doesn’t run 5/1
Thousand Stars goes for The Champion Hurdle (and finishes 2nd) 9/1 Current Price to win Betting without HFI make that 6599-1 but please check,but I’ll accept 5000/1
How am I aftertiming?
Jeeeze you are a serious bugger !
I meant the First Lieutenant was already out of the Jewson when you posted your reply.
7 days weren’t up when I made my post.
BTW, what odds are you offering on an acc to the tenner that I get them all correct?
I’d love to stake a tenner that you get all of those bar First Lieutenant in the RSA wrong.
Aftertiming on FL
With Kauto a doubt, Grand Crus will probably end up going for Gold. That screws up my ante post on him, so I need something to cover the bet. Bob’s Worth is too short considering what he’s achieved over fences, Sir Des Champs will hopefully be going Jewson, First Lieutenant is also too short judged on his chase form.
This leaves Invictus and Join Together. Join Together hasn’t run this year, which is a vital stat in this race. Invictus has, and also was rated less than 135 as a hurdler, which is also vital. Plus, connections will be chasing the 60k Plumpton bonus, so they’ll not be messing about sending him for this.
Invictus it is, 9/1.
Anyone giving Join Together even a "snowballs" chance in The RSA should check the form of GALWAY JACK in The Hunter Chase at Leicester this afternoon
I wish WM would just tell me if my Boston Bob bet is dead or not. I can’t take wathcing the exhanges all day to find out. I ws confident I had a chance yesterday, but now there’s no money for it at all in this, and its just been matched at 5 for the Neptune.
Just put me out of my misery man!!!
Willie Mullins won’t let on until the last minute. He’s like a football manager who doesn’t want to give his team selection away until he has to.
I’m convinced Boston Bob will run in The Neptune. The field is far weaker than the AB and the prize more desirable.
Other forecasts…….
Sir Des Champs goes for The Jewson
First Lieutenant goes for The RSA
Peddler’s Cross doesn’t run at The Festival
Grand Crus goes for The Gold Cup
Kauto Star doesn’t run
Thousand Stars goes for The Champion Hurdle (and finishes 2nd)I’m completely with you this GDC. It actually makes you less inclined to put a point forward when there are, well to put it bluntly, keyboard bullies who take a great deal of time in trying not to put their point forward, but to cynically dissect others views.
Chelt specialist, keep to what you do well my friend, giving informed and insightful opinions and don’t be drawn in by someone spoiling for a fight. Shack and Elgransenor,I think the same applies.
If I happen to get a caustic tirade from "someone" about my opinion on this, I will not be responding to it.
Please can we get back to what this forum is good at….talking horses and respecting opinions whether we agree with them or not.
Thanks Guys, I hope I can unearth something worth passing on next week……on the subject of racing
These guys don’t usually have much depth of either knowledge or intelligence they tend to get fed up an move on if ridiculed or ignored. Humour works far better than aggression in my experienceAnother 2nd but got the 100/30 EW to no major damage.
The Pawnbroker Hunter Chase at Leicester tomorrow is one of the most competitive Hunter Chases run so far this season with all eight runners having some sort of claim. That said
GALWAY JACK
looks a cast iron EW shot if all eight run and is a fairly confident selection to win the race. This highly rated pointer will be having his third run under rules, a bold front runner in points who jumps well, can sustain a relentless gallop and regularly sets best times of the day in points, his problem so far has for his jockey to get the pace right, too fast first time out, too slow on his last outing. In his early days in The UK he only just got home over 3miles in points but he’s settling better of late and now fully gets the trip. Now with top UK handler Gerald Bailey, when he raced in Ireland he beat such high class horses as Join Together (OR 156 and 7/1 for The RSA) and Minela Class (OR146 and 6th in last year’s Neptune). A repetition of either of these pieces of form would make him a certainty tomorrow. He has the beating of Rumbery Grey at the revised weights who just held on to beat him in a photo last time out.
Barry Geraghty has nicked the mount on John Ferguson’s New Year’s Eve in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper from Jack Quinlan .
What a shame, he’s a really good young jockey but I suppose that makes my mind up for me, I’d NYE shortlisted for a wee while
Sir Johnston looks the ew valueshack, elgrandsenor…..don’t get drawn into a battle of wits with an unarmed opponent
In case anyone else is interested I’ve put my money where my mouth is
£500 EW Galileo’s Choice @ 7 /1 Placed last weekend
Even though he is a "Proper" trainer yes?
Oh That was you………….Well I wish I’d realised earlier I’m out of here, not wasting any more time on this
strange argument. surely flat form has some relevance, as showing ability on the flat shows that you have more class and speed than the vast majority of national hunt horses.
as for the arkle, stats show that the best hurdlers tend to dominate that race. so using that logic it wasn’t very surprising that peddlers cross was a strong favourite for a while (it just so happens that the race looks to have a superstar in sprinter sacre.)
Since 2000, 3 winners of the race had raced on the Flat. That is 3/11. So being the best flat horse in the race isn’t important. I don’t know what the stats/trends are for where the Best rated Flat horse finished per year.
So no, flat form has not had significance in regards to this race and cannot and should not be considered a "Major" plus.
So where does that leave Steps For Freedom by your own thinking? Not only has he ran 4 times on the flat but his record has been pretty average in those 4 runs.
Not that I am I suggesting that Steps To Freedom isn’t a major player but I doubt if beating Prospect Wells in a photo is form to win a NeptuneLook, I’m no stats man, My point re Willie Mullins is that even a NH trainer of his ability can have a poor record in certain meetings/races Nobody would suggest that this poor record affects the chances of Boston Bob (for example)
Galileo’s Choice has easily the best flat form and can jump hurdles fluently, Robbie MacNamara is a top flight jockey and he’s trained by one of the best trainers on the planet.
What’s not to like?
OK Weld’s record at The Festival is far from inspiring but neither is Willie Mullins in Festival Novice Hurdles, 3 winners this Century from God only knows how many runners, nobody doubts his ability as a NH trainer
Although I’m leaning heavily towards the Enda Bolger pair right now, nothing is set in stone as I’m worried about the ground for both, for some reason The Cross Country course isn’t being watered
Bottom line for me has to be the jockey, it’s risky backing any runner until riding arrangements are known, not to mention missing out on 4th place not available on AP.
A good horse with the wrong jockey is always going to struggle to beat an OK horse with the right jockey, it’s not just finding the correct way round, it’s about finding the shortest way round and with the jumps/obstacles so close together it’s also about presenting a horse in the right place to jump the following fence not just the one being immediately jumped.
Apart from Nina and JT, added to Davy Russell, Katie Walsh, Andrew Lynch and Paul Carberry I’d have my reservations…. if I don’t fancy one ridden by one of those I probably won’t have a bet in the race
No mate, I wasn’t suggesting she would have taken the wrong course regardless I was just pointing out a couple of things, namely;
1. The rear jocks – whoever they would have been – had enough forewarning as to which way to go.
2. For those supporting Garde Champetre, he was well beaten at the time and it’s unlikely he’d have finished ahead of Wedger Pardy (or most of the others) if they hadn’t ran out.
Lee
Agreed but I feel I’ve answered points raised regarding that race before, I quote….
"the firm ground woudn’t have suited GC in November, the horse goes much better for Nina than he does for JT, Nina’s a real master(ess) at cutting corners, watch the way she switches her horse from inside to outside to gain ground at almost every turn. She’d have had Garde much closer in that race than JT had him. Enda is qouted as saying "She’s been the making of the horse (GC after he came from JohnJo) he runs and jumps for her"
I like the treble and good luck with it CS.
I have all three of them in singles myself but as for a treble, I’d much prefer to have Sizing Europe in there at evens than Hurricane Fly at 4/6.
I’m genuinely amazed at the difference in their prices. The former is the banker of the week for me (Quevega aside) and the latter has some decent opposition this time around.
Lee
Ah, Sizing Europe, what a horse he is at Cheltenham. I’ve backed him ever time he’s been here.
His injury cost me a winning Yankee the day he was about to canter home in The Champion Hurdle. Not his fault, I am just glad he came back from it, most never do.
Travel sickness beat him the following year but he’s more than repaid any debt he owed me or anybody else since.
Agreed he looks cast iron with only Big Zeb to beat, and he’s more than up to that task.
I will be backing him of course, I only left him out of that bet as I wanted to have my "banker" bet over before the National Hunt Chase and The RSA. That way I could decide whether to go in again on my (50/1 & 66/1) outsiders for each race.
