Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Perhaps I shouldn’t have been so hasty in dismissing REFIC DE THAIX as a betting proposition, on form he should be in the 2/5 to 1/3 region in this field yet there’s 11/10 on offer.
It would be nice to know why he’s been off for so long but one thing’s for sure he’ll jump round OK, Daddy Waley-Cohen isn’t going put little Sammy at risk a week before his "date with destiny" at The Festivalthm, I imagine you’ll be on Lord windermere tomorrow but I’d advise you to take a long look at Ballynacree and watch a replay of his debut at Gowran Park.
Exceptionally impressive considering the SP
3.35 WARWICK
Swift Counsel, who was 13½ lengths behind OLD SI (Rec 7lbs) in the latter’s most recent run under rules, went on to run Roberto Goldbeck (Gave 3lbs) to 3 ½ length next time out, surely that’s good enough form to win this poor Hunter Chase. Formerly with Dessie Hughes, who thought enough of him to pitch him into Grade 1 against the likes of Tranquil Sea, he’s now moved to The UK. Of the others in this race, Spellchecker is a very weak finisher and Sovereign King (probably the main danger) has only got one decent piece of form in the last 5 years and that looks very flattering and is probably misleading.
It’s worth showing some caution, however, as the trainer has never had a winner under rules while the jockey has one win from 63 rides.5.10 WARWICK
While I hate missing out on any Hunter Chase, this prize has been “bought” by a family of pot hunters so there’s little point in having a bet. Anyone wanting to watch the race in the hope the jockey falls off the favourite might feel an EW interest on Noble Aran or Quil Est Beau offers better value than the obvious EW shots but I won’t be having a bet in the race.I’d hesitate to describe the John Corbett as the hunter’s King George as it is the novices race; not the old Horse & Hound whatever it’s called nowadays!
Bradley was very promising a couple of years ago and I agree that 33-1 is generous. I think provided he acts on the course Salsify may be the one to beat.
You are correct, my error. Can we call it The Hunter’s RSA ?
Aldertune didn’t do the Bradley form any harm this afternoon but Mr Goodenough paid a huge compliment to MERCHANT ROYAL at Gowran Park (Just had £100 EW "saver" @ 16/1) before the odds shrink.
Cheltenham Ante-Post:
SUPREME: Dylan Ross, €5 e/w @ 25/1……………….now 33/1
SUPREME: Divapour, €5 e/w @ 80/1 NRNB…………….now 66/1
ARKLE: Peddlers Cross, €20 win @ 8/1……………..NR
JLT HCAP: Fruity O’Rooney, €5 e/w @ 33/1 NRNB……..now 25/1
NEPTUNE: Mount Benbulben, €5 win @ 20/1…………..NR
NEPTUNE: Monksland, €10 e/w @ 7/1 NRNB……………now 6/1
RSA: First Lieutenant, €10 e/w @ 20/1…………….now 5/1
RSA: Sir Des Champs, €10 win @ 5/1 NRNB…………..now 9/2
JEWSON: Sir Des Champs, €10 e/w @ 12/1……………now 9/2
WORLD HURDLE: Thousand Stars, €10 e/w @ 8/1……….now 9/1
WORLD HURDLE: Big Bucks, €50 win @ 4/5 NRNB……….now 8/13
COUNTY: Moon Dice, €10 e/w @ 14/1………………..now 8/1
ALBERT BARTLETT: Sea Of Thunder, €10 e/w @ 16/1……now 7/1
GOLD CUP: Quito De La Roque, €10 win @ 25/1……….NR
GRAND ANNUAL: De Boitron, €10 e/w @ 25/1………….now 10/1Not a bad lot at all, I can see you collecting on quite a few of your bets, a few (handicap) races in there that I never look at so I can’t comment on those
Gold Ducat 3rd 16/1, a tad unlucky in running, cut off twice on the rails and hampered by a faller at the second last but I doubt if he would have won even with a clear run. One to note, however, there’s a rece in him.
First Weeks Hunter selections did OK though
W 11/8
Fell (In Lead 2 out 7/2)
W 10/3 Advised big bet
Lost
2nd 9/4
2nd 9/2 Advised cast iron EW (unlucky loser)
W 13/8
W 5/1
2nd 5/1
3rd 16/1 Advised decent EWRed Power, Prince Regent, Mandarin and Cottage Rake were the only 11-Y-Olds to win The Gold Cup (Some very special horses there)
Silver Fame and What A Myth are the only previous 12-Y-Olds to win
That’s why I said "hopefully" CS.
Hope you get a run for your cash Ginger, if he was mine he’d go in The Gold Cup
From RP
"(Grand Crus) owner Roger Stanley told racingpost.com: "I suppose with Kauto Star looking like a runner and Tom falling off him the other day people were making up their own minds, but we haven’t.
"We’ll decide on Monday, he’s still in both and I suppose the RSA is probably the most likely at the moment, but I’d prefer to go for the Gold Cup."
"Tom Falling Off" ?????? Do you know anything about this????
You need to watch his course and distance win at Cheltehmam 2010 before he got narrowly beat at Stratford in The John Corbett Cup (The Hunters King George) due to sore shins (Too fast ground)
He missed a whole year and has been brought along nicely with this race in mind.
The distance is probably his minimum trip but he’s proven he likes a stiff uphill finish and nothing will pass him after the climb starts but he’ll pass a few, of that I’m certain
Fergal O’Brien is quoted as saying he’s very tough so he’ll cope with the big field.
My only worry is the flat spot he always hits in his races (Big Bucks style) doesn’t cost him too much groundI’m afraid of Merchant Royal but like Askanna (had she run) Bradley’s price is far too big, 10/1, 12/1 is probably closer to a realistic price
I see a future Eider Chase, Whiubread Gold Cup or Welsh Grand National winner when I watch him race
There are two races this afternoon that could have an impression on the betting for the Foxhunters.
In Ireland at Gowran Park there’s a very competitive race, the result of which will probably see some shortening of certain horses
If Gold Ducat or Mountain Lough win expect Zardsky and Boxer Georg to shorten
If Viking Splash wins Salsify, Merchant Royal and On The Fringe may shorten
If Agus A Vic wins expect Zardsky to shorten (considerably)
Five minutes later at Sandown Aldertune runs, If he wins there won’t be any 33/1 left about Bradley
I’ve had £200 EW BRADLEY @ 33/1 now, just incase. He won’t be longer on the day regardless of Aldertune as he’s a horse that’s usually gambled on
More to the point, Racing UK were offering 12 months free (sign up before Midday) subscription if he wins!
Shame you didn’t post this info earlier
PS to my Gold Ducat post.
Been re-watching a few replays and I’m fairly confidend he’ll make the frame, on his Boxer Georg run a line through Zardsky gives him the beating of 2nd Fav Agus a Vic yet 16/1 on offer with bet365.
Now my confidence is back I feel OK about recommending one worth an Ew interest at a big price tomorrow.
On all known form Viking Splash should win the Hunter Chase at Gowran Park as he had my selection, Gold Ducat, a long way behind when they both ran behind Merchant Royal earlier this year but GOLD DUCAT didn’t have his first race until last year at the age of nine.
He ran a blinder behind Boxer Georg and Zardsky and would have finished closer but for interference in the home straight, indeed aproaching the second last he looked to be going best of all. He’s going to be a big price tomorrow and this is a sporting EW bet but he impressed me in that hot Hunter ChaseI’m utterly astonished that anybody thinks Binocular can even get Hurricane Fly of the bit, never mind beat him?
I’ll be amazed if he makes the frame.
yet ANOTHER 2nd, got 9/2 off Laddies so no damage.
Don’t give up on Galway Jack his jumping in the straight let him down when looking all over the winner. I’d like to see how he’d go for a more experienced jockey. Good sit at the third last by young Jonathan Bailey though.I’m going for small 2×1 ew doubles in the next two Hunter Chases.
JANE’S CRUSADER
X
POINT PROVEN
RESTLESS D’ARTAIXThat’s better Winner and 1st & 2nd. and thanks to BOG I got 13/8 "Janes" and 5/1 for both of the Leicester runners, nice profit on the day
