- This topic has 231 replies, 47 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
What value is there in backing a horse whose last 4 career starts have come on heavy? What value is there in backing a horse beaten 43L by Time For Rupert at Cheltenham? What value is there in backing a horse beaten 15L by the NH Chase 4-mile favourite Tea For Three? What value is there in backing a horse beaten 31L by the slowest horse who ever lived (Le Beau Bai)?
Will be lapped along with Join Together.
Well you obviously view him in the same light as the Coral odds compilers. I see it differently: if he turns up in a field minus Grands Crus, he’s likely to be under 20s on the day. Even with Grands Crus he’ll probably be no more than 30 on Betfair giving me a nice free bet.
On the OR point alone V Bobs Worth, I’m very surprised you don’t consider him value.
I like Cannington Brook but he would have been well down the field in the Albert Bartlett last year had he run.
In all honesty I wouldn’t see him as a 150 horse. My gut says about 145 tops? Whereas Bobs Worth would have at least the potential for a mark in the high 150s. I think there’s every chance you’ll see a different Bobs Worth going left handed here.
But in value terms the one I am interested in is Call the Police. Looked an out & out stayer in the PJ Moriarty. Looks the right ‘type’ and will be surprised if he doesn’t make the first 3.
I agree that join together will be lapped. surely just another aiteenthirtythree, a slowboat in other words.
This race really is a terrible betting heat now. I realy like First Lieu under these conditions, but he is too short on what he has shown this season. Bobs Worth will stay all day, but if they havent sorted his jumping out he is goosed, and so is too short based on that imponderable. I backed SDC for the Jewson at 8/1, so really hopes he runs there, but if he does go here, I will certainly be backing him again. I agree that Join Together is too slow. Lambro might place back on better ground. I think he will reverse form with CTP anyway, but still wouldn’t be too confident and he can’t win. I think GC will run here rather than the GC and so is a very worthy short priced fav.
If GC and SDC defect, surely the weakest RSA in a very long time.
If both run, SDC.I agree that join together will be lapped. surely just another aiteenthirtythree, a slowboat in other words.
1833 I think has proved himself to be a horse who has to dominate in a single-figure field. Won his debut against 10 rivals (made all), but P00 (how coincidental…) in his other 3 starts against 10+ rivals.
321112 when facing 9 rivals or fewer.
You also have to remember that he was awarded a farcicaly high rating after beating Tarablaze at Newbury. He’s been dropped 12lbs since then & I’m sure Nicholls will find a suitable race for him soon, although admittedly it’s very difficult to find a decent prize/handicap with so few runners. He needs a trip as well. I think the Aintree Bowl or Charlie Hall would suit, as they rarely attract more than a handful of runners. The Aon Chase could also be a nice target.
This race really is a terrible betting heat now. I realy like First Lieu under these conditions, but he is too short on what he has shown this season. Bobs Worth will stay all day, but if they havent sorted his jumping out he is goosed, and so is too short based on that imponderable. I backed SDC for the Jewson at 8/1, so really hopes he runs there, but if he does go here, I will certainly be backing him again. I agree that Join Together is too slow. Lambro might place back on better ground. I think he will reverse form with CTP anyway, but still wouldn’t be too confident and he can’t win. I think GC will run here rather than the GC and so is a very worthy short priced fav.
If GC and SDC defect, surely the weakest RSA in a very long time.
If both run, SDC.I think you must have forgotten last years RSA for the worst ever, that was the dogs @@@@@.
Bostons Angel – who are ya??See what you mean though, the race has really fallen apart and if GC defects and SDC goes to the Jewson, there’s only 3-4 really credible challengers which again stems from the decision to extend the meet to four days.
Invictus is a bummer for ante-post players but Grand Crus WILL run in the RSA irrespective of
any
other late withdrawals.
I really don’t know why Pipe doesn’t just say so.
Interestingly, I did read in Monday’s RP that the owner of Grand Crus much prefers the Blue Riband for his charge. Surely the owner overrules the trainer?
Zip
I believe there are more than one Grands Crus owner Zip.
22/1 now for the Gold Cup hopefully tells its own story.
Value Is EverythingThat’s why I said "hopefully" CS.
Hope you get a run for your cash Ginger, if he was mine he’d go in The Gold Cup
From RP
"(Grand Crus) owner Roger Stanley told racingpost.com: "I suppose with Kauto Star looking like a runner and Tom falling off him the other day people were making up their own minds, but we haven’t.
"We’ll decide on Monday, he’s still in both and I suppose the RSA is probably the most likely at the moment, but I’d prefer to go for the Gold Cup."
"Tom Falling Off" ?????? Do you know anything about this????
I think "Tom falling off" was a slip of the tongue. Roger Stanley was referring to Kauto Star’s schooling tumble and surely meant to say "Ruby falling off".
What absolute nonsense. Have you ever looked at the number of horses discarded from ditcheat every year? And as for the Pipe operation jebus. Alan King has the same number go wrong as anyone else. An exceptional trainer who has been unlucky with the bug. VPU won an Arkle and a champion chase which would be good enough for most trainers. Katchit only horse since Persian war to win the triumph Hurdle and win the champion the next year. Must be an idiot!!!???!!!
I understand that moderate horses tend to be less physically solid and go wrong, peak very early or whatever for any trainer. I just think it is worrying how many of Alan King’s top horses retire so young, usually with attitude or physical problems. No steady decline of ability, but suddenly unhappy horses losing 30lbs of talent.
You have to admit that Paul Nicholls and David Pipe are great at keeping their best horses at the top of their game season after season, likewise at bringing horses back from seasons off.
Kauto Star/Denman/Noland/Master Minded/See More Business/Neptune Collonges/Big Bucks/Cenkos/Our Vic etc: All kept and keep going season after season at the top of their game. Kauto Star’s revival, See More Business’ teenage heroics and Earthmover’s repeat Foxhunters’ win were particular miracles of training. Many of those other horses have returned from seasons away with injury, heart scares etc. There are inevitable burnouts as you say, but a vast number of horses enjoy exceptionally long careers at Ditcheat. All horses with different profiles too. Ex-flat, French-breds, traditional jumpers, they all come the same.
Can you name an Alan King horse who has stayed at its peak for as long as those?
Voy Por Ustedes:
Brilliant from late 2005-early 2009. Switched to Nicky Henderson after disappointing from then, vets discovered serious back problems, which had been undiagnosed for ‘probably over a year’ while racing for Alan King. Horse never regained his form and retired aged 10, a broken animal.
Halcon Genelardais:
Heroic staying chaser (and former useful novice hurdler) from early 2005 to late 2008. Attitude turned very sour from 2009 afterwards. Refused to pass Joe Lively in Pillar Chase, pulled himself up in Gold Cup, never the same again. Retired in 2010 as a 10 year old. Returned as a shadow of former self in hunter chases in 2011, retired again at 11.
Franchoek:
Aggressively campaigned in juvenile hurdles 2007/2008. Good 2nd to Celestial Halo in Triumph Hurdle. Understandably struggled the next year but seemingly held some of his form. Finished very weakly given easy tasks every run over fences 2009/2010, attitude completely opposite to 2007/2008. Seemingly retired in 2010, an utterly dispirited horse.
My Way De Solzen:
Brilliant mid 2004-mid 2007, including winning World Hurdle despite not being a strong stayer and Arkle Chase despite many saying he needed further. Unwisely, Alan King challenged Kauto Star with MWDS when the horse was not fully fit. Never the same again, often weakening very quickly. Retired 2009 aged 9. Returned as an effective point-to-pointer for another trainer after a break.
Blazing Bailey:
To be fair, probably not the best example. Still had a pretty odd career. 2006-early 2008 an almost top-class hurdler, 2009 and 2010 in the wilderness, two good wins in 2011. Absolutely sour ever since and hated every stride last Saturday. Retired aged 10 with attitude issues.
Katchit:
You have to admire Alan King for how he won so much with Katchit, no dispute there. Average flat horse, amazing how he won the Triumph after being on the go in summer juvenile hurdles. And the Champion Hurdle too: incredible! He has regressed dramatically ever since, but that was probably inevitable. Carrying 11-10 or 11-12 around every race when you’re too small to carry a bag of sugar must take its toll.
Some of them you could say were unlucky, some just aggressively campaigned and some (MWDS, VPU in particular) trainer error. I don’t think I am talking ‘nonsense’, but of course you are entitled to your opinion.
Good post. I share your views.
Bostons Angel – who are ya??
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.