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I don’t think anyone is going to argue about it being a game of opinions but you must have some form of visual evidence for you to suspect that Grands Crus isn’t up for a battle. Otherwise you could add that label to any in horse in training.
I probably have some visual ‘clue’ rather than evidence. But I don’t know exactly what that clue is.
I once read an explanation/interpretation of instinct: the writer gave the example of driving along a motorway and your instinct ‘tells’ you to drop speed/move to another lane or take some other action that is not a conscious one.
After a few minutes you might or might not come upon the reason for this ‘instinctive’ move – maybe there is an accident, a sudden burst of terrible weather etc.
His explanation was that although you were not aware of any clues, many years of driving have enabled your subconscious to store thousands of images of the way traffic moves and that what is happening is that the subconscious has recognised some pattern that, in the past, has led to danger – it has alerted you through what we describe as instinct.
That’s perhaps a long-winded way of saying I might be seeing something in GC’s way of moving that, after 45 years of watching racing, has regurgitated something – perhaps it’s the slightly odd way he carries his head at times, to the right, . . I don’t know.
Then again, the whole theory might be a pile of crap. As far as GC goes, maybe some day we will find out, maybe we won’t.
To be sure Grand Crus was in a fight at Cheltenham and came out of it ok. He has to fight to get past 2 others to have a crack at Big Bucks and responded well to his jockeys urgings to get there But I do agree, under real pressure what would he find?
Big Bucks who just equalled Bula’s consecutive winning sequence makes everything look like they have no fight in them
You have to remember GC is more of a traveller than a finisher and his type every seldom find much when they come under extreme pressure, granted getting them under pressure is a very difficult thing to do.
He doesn’t go to sleep in his races like other good travellers and he doesn’t exactly pull his jockeys arm out but gives the impression he is constantly wanting to go one step faster and that uses up energy.
As long as he’s like that and uses up that little bit extra you can expect him to be fairly flat in a finish if they can get him off the bridle quickly enough to make it count of course.
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I was quite taken by Cue Card which makes a big change for me. For once he never spat out the dummy and battled all the way to the line.
Perhaps Joe Tizzard should have kicked on at the last instead of steadying his mount but I think he thought he had already seen off Bob’s Worth. I thought he had to be truthful as Bob’s Worth looked to have blown up 3 out. He probably did but like so very often happens if they blow up early enough he got his second wind and fought back like a tiger.
Of the 3 mentioned I’d think Bob’s Worth is most likely to be the one to go on to better things. He’s every bit as talented as Cue Card and Grand Crus but he’s multi talented and much more straightforward racehorse.
To be sure Grand Crus was in a fight at Cheltenham and came out of it ok. He has to fight to get past 2 others to have a crack at Big Bucks and responded well to his jockeys urgings to get there But I do agree, under real pressure what would he find?
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Usually pretty difficult to contradict yourself in one sentence but I think you have managed it here, unless of course you have a very peculiar idea of ‘real pressure’.
Personally think those jumping on Grands Crus for this race are mad. I think those jumping on any horse for this race are mad.
The R&SA is by far the craziest, maddest, most unpredictable main event race of the Festival. It’s been that way for years; 16/1, 33/1, 25/1, 14/1 and 16/1 winners since 1999. It’s not a race like the Arkle where you can find good hurdlers who make the transition to jumping – there’s just nothing in a horse’s background to let you know if they’re even a prospective R&SA runner, let alone a winner.
It’s such an incredible, gruelling test for a novice with so little experience over fences and I couldn’t possibly consider even looking at the ante-post betting for it.
I thought Bob’s Worth was impressive the other day, but the only Graded novice chase Henderson really cares about is the Feltham on Boxing Day, and it looks for all the world as if that’s Bob’s next target.
Grands Crus hasn’t particularly impressed me on either of his opening chases, nor does he strike me as a R&SA winner. People were falling over themselves to back Time For Rupert to win last year’s race because of just 1 race over hurdles – his 2nd place finish to Big Buck’s in 2010. And I fear the same will happen again this season. He’s not a big horse, Grands Crus, and only big horses really excel over fences.
Hidden Cyclone would vaguely interest me at 25/1 given that ‘Shark’ thinks the world of him and in hindsight put up an extremely strong effort in December last year against First Lieutenant and Zaidpour over 2 miles, before having his next 3 starts over at least 4 furlongs further. Whether he needs soft ground or not, well that’s part of the 25/1. He’s gone off at sub-7/2 for all starts bar that loss.
Hidden Cyclone would vaguely interest me at 25/1 given that ‘Shark’ thinks the world of him and in hindsight put up an extremely strong effort in December last year against First Lieutenant and Zaidpour over 2 miles, before having his next 3 starts over at least 4 furlongs further. Whether he needs soft ground or not, well that’s part of the 25/1. He’s gone off at sub-7/2 for all starts bar that loss.
I’m a big fan of the horse but I wouldn’t pay too much heed to what the Shark says. He’d talk up a three legged donkey and tell you he was the best he’d trained!
Learnt a long time ago not to listen what trainers say, but to watch what trainers do. I very much doubt Hidden Cyclone is quite as good as ‘Shark’ says bearing in mind I’d never even heard of the trainer until this horse came along, so I doubt he’s had many good horses in his time, but I do like that defeat in December behind 2 good horses.
Zark what you think of Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenaint to win RSA i like both horses i do.
I believe Hidden Cyclone will be a good horse. I just wonder where he is right now. They said a while back he would make his chase debut in septemeber, and there has been no update.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sport/racing/hanlon-hails-his-hidden-gem-16049724.html
Cheers Zarkava. I actually read that article before. It still doesn’t really touch on why his debut over chases is delayed. If he has a light introduction, that would maybe give him one competetive race before the rsa ?…given that the owner has a few potential candidates, i just wonder if he might not make the festival. Also i think i read from past quotes that they prefer softer ground at an early stage.
Well missing the Neptune makes sense if Shark thinks he’s a chaser who needs a stamina test, but will be hard for them to avoid the Festival this season, quick ground or not, if they think of him as a 2013 Gold Cup candidate. Ground preferences also have a habit of becoming not so important as the Festival arrives.
I heard SDC is going for the Jewson straighy after his race in Fairyhouse.Id back this up because Gigginstown have at leat 3 horses for the RSA incl First L,Bog Warrior and Last Instalment.
Personally think those jumping on Grands Crus for this race are mad. I think those jumping on any horse for this race are mad.
The R&SA is by far the craziest, maddest, most unpredictable main event race of the Festival. It’s been that way for years; 16/1, 33/1, 25/1, 14/1 and 16/1 winners since 1999. It’s not a race like the Arkle where you can find good hurdlers who make the transition to jumping –
there’s just nothing in a horse’s background to let you know if they’re even a prospective R&SA runner, let alone a winner.
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Sorry but that’s rubbish.
I’ve backed Trabolgan, Star De Mohaison, Denman / Snowy Morning f’cast and Weapons Amnesty in recent seasons. All based on form, ability and breeding.
Rigour Back Bob ran the other day over hurdles VTC, was well beaten in the end but he always is first run back so plenty of time yet.
Only Thousand Stars really in the staying hurdling division in Ireland so imagine they might go that route with him again, he ran well at Cheltenham in March.
Rigour Back Bob has picked up an injury and won’t run again for at least 12 months.
How is Zark talking rubbish, You can make a case for virtually any horse that runs in the RSA because most of them are bred for it and that’s why they run in the damn thing. Making a list 10 to 12 years after the event and telling someone they are talking rubbish takes a lot of skill..not!!!
I’d say Star De Mohaison who was beaten twice by The Listener prior to the race and started about 10th fav at 14/1 proves that he has a point. The Listener had also won a 25 furlong race in heavy ground so no one doubted his ability to stay every inch of the RSA trip but you picked the winner on breeding and form. A horse who had not only been stuffed by the fav. but had never run over the trip and the nearest he had come to it was in a Micky Mouse novice he started at 1/3 for.
The Listener started thee price he did because he had by far the best form and looked certain to get the trip but you picked the winner on form and breeding
were you in denial at the time?Plus picking Weapon’s Amensty against subsequent Gold Cup winner Long Run now looks very much like it was pure luck and not breeding and most certainly not form.
I’d be careful about telling people they are talking rubbish if you are going to spout some yourself in the same post.
Apart from Denman and Looks Like Trouble some of the recent RSA chasess have been awful event none worse than last year which was won by a boat who wouldn’t win a Gold Cup if he set off today.
Name like Arkle, Bonne Notte, Killiney, Tied Cottage, Ten Up, Master Smudge are just a few examples of the type of horse who used to win the race.
This year could produce a future Gold Cup winner in Bog Warrior although if he does turn up he’ll have very little to beat so winning this may not mean much but he is a very classy horse.
Grand Crus is a very fast animal and at this stage of his career while he retains that speed he may be more suited to the Golden Miller. Had it not been such a hot Arkle I reckon David Pipe would have gone that route then steeped him up next year.
I certainly wouldn’t run him in the RSA if it came up very soft. Too much emphasis on stamina and not speed isn’t his thing IMO.
Until it’s confirmed where Grand Crus actually runs backing him AP is nuts. Backing him to beat Bog Warrior is even crazier
were you in denial at the time?
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