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How is Zark talking rubbish, You can make a case for virtually any horse that runs in the RSA because most of them are bred for it and that’s why they run in the damn thing.
but he said this
there’s just nothing in a horse’s background to let you know if they’re even a prospective R&SA runner, let alone a winner.
And you’re completely disagreeing with him in your opening sentence – that’s why it’s rubbish
Making a list 10 to 12 years after the event and telling someone they are talking rubbish takes a lot of skill..not!!!
Yawn. " I refuse to believe anyone but i can pick winners ! They must be aftertimers ! "
I’d say Star De Mohaison who was beaten twice by The Listener prior to the race and started about 10th fav at 14/1 proves that he has a point. The Listener had also won a 25 furlong race in heavy ground so no one doubted his ability to stay every inch of the RSA trip but you picked the winner on breeding and form. A horse who had not only been stuffed by the fav. but had never run over the trip and the nearest he had come to it was in a Micky Mouse novice he started at 1/3 for.
The Listener started thee price he did because he had by far the best form and looked certain to get the trip but you picked the winner on form and breeding
were you in denial at the time?Plus picking Weapon’s Amensty against subsequent Gold Cup winner Long Run now looks very much like it was pure luck and not breeding and most certainly not form.
I’d be careful about telling people they are talking rubbish if you are going to spout some yourself in the same post.
This is truly pathetic.
He doesn’t have a point with Star De Mohaison because he believes that no one could see the horse had a chance of winning . Yet it had form at the course, trained by Nicholls, ridden by Geraghty, had come a couple of lengths behind The Listener over 2.5miles and was staying on well, so the step up in trip looked good, and was receiving 10 pounds in weight. That all adds up to being very backable indeed.And do you seriously think that because a horse beat another horse once, it should beat it every time thereafter ?! And that the horse with the best form before a race always wins ?!!
" Picking picking Weapon’s Amensty against subsequent Gold Cup winner Long Run now looks very much like it was pure luck and not breeding and most certainly not form "
Long Run hadn’t won the Gold Cup then.
He hadn’t run at Cheltenham
He had an amateur onboard – someone who later needed intensive schooling and training to be able to win the Gold Cup.whereras Weapons Amnesty had come second in two Group 1’s running up to a race on a course it liked, having won the previous years Albert Bartlett, and had shown a liking for better ground.
One is 4-1
The other is 10-1.Not everyone choose that which is most blindingly obvious, not everyone is an aftertimer
But mate you claim you picked them because they had the best form and breeding for the races which is complete rubbish. Weapons Amnesty was rated 9lbs below Punchestowns and Long Run and certainly wasn’t the pick on breeding by any stretch of the imagination.
The fact is Long Run was the best horse in the race and the best bred and you went against that and got lucky because on the day he ran miles below par.
The Listener is much the same he turned out to be a 170 horse whereas the Nichols horse never came anywhere near that in his entire career.
I don’t doubt you backed the horses, we all back winners at some time or another but your reason for backing those 2 particular horses just doesn’t compute. They were clearly the best on the day but the best bred for the job and the best form overall? Never in a million years.
As far as me disagreeing with Zark is concerned I think you got the wrong end of the stick.
I think there is only one 3 mile + novice chase run at Cheltenham prior to the RSA that will tell you if a horse will actually stay the trip or not and they can’t and don’t all run in it. therefore it’s pure guesswork which he is saying. It is a dodgy race to try and find the winner off and gets less and less popular with punters every year.
The festival is based around The Gold Cup, The Champion Hurdle, The QMCC, The Arkle and the RSA and the latter hasn’t seen 1/3 of what’s been traded on any of the other 4 on Betfair which speaks volumes towards supporting what the man said about being mad to have an AP bet in the race.
Could be that injury may prevent a clash but there certainly isn’t anything in the formbook to suggest that Long Run is a better horse around Cheltenham than Weapons Amnesty
But mate you claim you picked them because they had the best form and breeding for the races which is complete rubbish.
No i didn’t
I said i picked these horses on form, ability and breeding, not the best form, the most ability and the most regally bred
All of them had shown form and ability to suggest they were good enough, even if in need of a little improvement, to win an RSA Chase, which goes against what the original poster had said and thus why i argued the point.
Breeding is a good guide to how high a horse can go in the ratings. Some sires have offspring who look potentially top class in novice or lesser company, but they never go above 140’s in the ratings
Take the Feltham for example
Bobs Worth – sire well known and Burton Port, Bacchanal, Thisthatandtoher all top class, with hudlers like Back In Front also proof.
Champion Court – Sire Court Cave has a few decent offspring but nothing that leaps off the page. Still fairly young in sire terms though so maybe best yet to come. Could struggle in these top class races.
Gradution Night – Planet Of Sound, Mad Max. Very good horses but not quite bonafide Grade 1.
Mr Moonshine – nothing striking and whilst he’ll win some minor staying races, is not top class.
Saint Are – sire of the moment Network. Well bred horse but maybe a year too early.
Grands Crus and Silviniaco Conti – by Dom Alco. Neptune Collonges, Al Ferof. Nicholls likes these.
Teaforthree – Big Zeb, Peddlers Cross, Oscar Whisky, Black Jack Ketchum. Quality from 2 to 3 miles. Mare is by Strong Gale and i think this horse will stay 4 miles.
Emmas Legend. – Midnight Chase by far the best horse listed. Unlikely to trouble the principles.
I’m so taken aback by Stilvi’s comment I don’t know if I have the power left to answer you Mark
The thing is it all goes back to the fact that most every intended runner is bred for the RSA but we need more evidence than that and here isn’t enough novice races going round at 3 miles on the course to point the finger at this stage and say they are definitely going to stay the trip.
So you have to use your eyes and your own judgement, the breeding if that’s your thing and stab a wild guess at what’s going to win.
That’s why I think saying Zark was talking rubbish is unfair. He makes a valid point that no horse can be backed with confidence unlike in the Arkle where the picture looks that bit clearer. Sprinter Sacre will win
No doubt nearer the time we will have a better idea but my own personal feelings is Bog Warrior is an exceptional horse and looks like a bit of a machine. The big question is will he have enough gas in the tank to see out the trip and that I can’t answer because even if he’s bred to stay 4 miles it doesn’t mean he will stay 3 miles at championship pace round Cheltenham.
Disagree. Many a fancied horse has failed over two miles at Cheltenham, and many have gone there without previous course experience and won.
However, three miles at Cheltenham takes a special kind of horse and proper study can reveal those that have far better chance than others.Not sure what Sir Des Champs Cheltenham target is but I’d fancy him in either the Jewson or the RSA. Looks a good opportunity for him tomorrow at Limerick.
Personally think those jumping on Grands Crus for this race are mad. I think those jumping on any horse for this race are mad.
The R&SA is by far the craziest, maddest, most unpredictable main event race of the Festival. It’s been that way for years; 16/1, 33/1, 25/1, 14/1 and 16/1 winners since 1999. It’s not a race like the Arkle where you can find good hurdlers who make the transition to jumping –
there’s just nothing in a horse’s background to let you know if they’re even a prospective R&SA runner, let alone a winner.
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Sorry but that’s rubbish.
I’ve backed Trabolgan, Star De Mohaison, Denman / Snowy Morning f’cast and Weapons Amnesty in recent seasons. All based on form, ability and breeding.
Well other than the 14/1 Star de Mohaison, the 3 winners you backed were all at single-figure prices…
Not sure what Sir Des Champs Cheltenham target is but I’d fancy him in either the Jewson or the RSA. Looks a good opportunity for him tomorrow at Limerick.
Lucky to win I think. Needs 3 miles.
I thought he would have won Zark but it’s hard to know. Knockfierna wasn’t stopping. I thought Emmet Mullins was poor on him. He didn’t seem to know what he wanted to do meeting the fences and the horse got him out of trouble more often than not.
SIR DES CHAMPS would of won anyway no doubt in my mind. and i agree with others when they say he needs 3m. i think he go Moraity next then i hope to the RSA though i back him in Jewson just in case they change there mind.
Admitedly, he probably wants a stiffer test than today but I can’t see much evidence to support a step up in trip. Jewson still by far the best option for me although much will depend on the placement of the other Gigginstown novices. He seems to jump very well and the quicker ground in March will probably aid his chances.
Personally think those jumping on Grands Crus for this race are mad. I think those jumping on any horse for this race are mad.
The R&SA is by far the craziest, maddest, most unpredictable main event race of the Festival. It’s been that way for years; 16/1, 33/1, 25/1, 14/1 and 16/1 winners since 1999. It’s not a race like the Arkle where you can find good hurdlers who make the transition to jumping –
there’s just nothing in a horse’s background to let you know if they’re even a prospective R&SA runner, let alone a winner.
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Sorry but that’s rubbish.
I’ve backed Trabolgan, Star De Mohaison, Denman / Snowy Morning f’cast and Weapons Amnesty in recent seasons. All based on form, ability and breeding.
Well other than the 14/1 Star de Mohaison, the 3 winners you backed were all at single-figure prices…
What has that to do with a horse’s background, other than reflect that they might have one ( which you claim is not possible ) ?
A good introduction to chasing for Hidden Cyclone there. Jumped well and won comfortably in the end. Andrew McNamara didn’t have to get serious with him and a step up in trip will play to his strengths you would think.
were you in denial at the time?
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