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That Shu Lewis finish on her debut was unbelieveable, came flying through like a rocket on speed to win going away! Casual Conquest looks a very interesting one too but what are the chances that she’ll race this season? I’m still happy with my Liquidator bet and was more than delighted when he destroyed Sea Lord. Have a feeling Briar Hill may be more of a Neptune or Albert Bartlett horse but then again so is Faugheen, I’m hoping he sends one to each and avoids the Supreme but I realise that’s unlikely.
Even if that happens he’ll probably still have Moyle Park for the Supreme, as you both say he has an exceptional bunch of novices. Clondaw Court is another, hopefully we’ll see him sooner rather than later.
The Liquidator was very impressive, Apache Stronghold gave his form a nice boost at the weekend too when dotting up at Navan.
The hill won’t hold any worries for Shu Lewis, she was also picking up ground when beaten 4 & 3/4 lengths in The Irish St Leger.
Can’t see what else Dermot Weld can do with Casual Conquest. He’s been gelded so a stud career is out of the question. He’s been kept in training of four years now without a run. His recent flat entries have mostly been Group 1 or 2 so he must retain a fair bit of his old ability.I don’t see The Liquidator or Sea Lord as Festival winners, sorry In fact at the moment I can’t see many/any Hurdle races going to UK trained horses.
Apache Stronghold did look good on Sunday Nice to see Paul Carberry winning by more than a neck (Still harping on Harchibald)I’m not necessarily saying I’m going to back him but how on earth has INVICUS been dropped 5lbs on official rating from his last run when he beat Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti getting only 3 lbs off both?
Surely that merits a 5 lb increase not a 5 lb reduction in OR?
OK He’s been off the course for a while and anyone backing him has to take that into consideration but surely he’s been let in very lightly on Saturday?
Hi mate loving the thread, what are your thoughts on the Supreme this year?
And I agree about Annie Power wanting further than 2m, maybe one for the World Hurdle down the line?
Thanks BH
The Supreme is a race that’s a bit far ahead for me yet
Of those who have had a run Willie Mullins would appear to hold exceptionally strong hand…nay, an Iron Grip!!From the left field
CASUAL CONQUEST is still in training and has had periodical 4 day entries over the last couple seasons, rumour has it he’s been schooled over hurdles. Now if he showed up sound? Wasn’t Royal Gait having his second(or was it third) run over hurdles when he won the Champion Hurdle at a similar age? Class will out!
SHU LEWIS is another un-raced over hurdles, she’s on the small side perhaps but very game. Her bumper form was of the highest order, her win on her debut at The Punchestown Festival has to be seen to be believedWith Quevega having a shot at making history, I’d say Willie will aim for the World Hurdle with Annie Power, much as I love Solwhit (especially) and Big Bucks my money would be on the mare.
That said, the distance never bothered Flyingbolt who won from 2 miles to 3.6, she might just be that special so I wouldn’t completely rule out The Champion, depends how Hurricane Fly winters, I’m sure Mullins is thinking about winning all three major hurdlesI’ve been reading through some other members threads in Lays & Plays and I’ve been away so long I’d forgotten the done thing was to show the "running profit & loss totals" on one’s threads
My season is only about 8 weeks and 16 bets old so it’s easy to catch up, all of these were listed in this thread along with the strength of confidence I had in each so it’s pretty easy to check upWhat this does show me is that maybe I’m still not being selective enough and perhaps I should be cutting out some of the smaller bets on my less fancied horses as my five 100 pts + bets are showing a profit of 125 points (from 1020 pts staked) while my eleven under 100 pts bets only show a 27 pts profit ( from 377 pts staked) and would have been in the red bar for Willie Mullins, in fact with hindsight I should give up backing anything but W Mullins horses with 4 winners and a 20-1 place from 5 bets!!!
REBEL FITZ 300 Pts WIN Lost
SIZING SYMPHONY 10 Pts EW Unplaced
SIZING EUROPE 100 Pts EW 2nd 3/1 –
SIMENON 10 Pts EW 2nd 20/1
ECHUA 5 Pts EW 2nd 7/1
QUITO DE LA ROQUE 15 Pts EW Unplaced
ECHUA 20 Pts EW W 3/1
DIAMOND HARRY 50 Pts EW Unplaced
HIDDEN CYCLONE 100 Pts EW 3rd 20/1 +39
UPSIE 77 Pts WIN W 10/11 +109
SEA LORD 50 Pts WIN Lost +59
PINE CREEK 25 Pts EW Unplaced +09
ANNIE POWER 220 Pts Win W 8/11 +169
BOBS WORTH 35 Pts EW Unplaced + 99
MOYLE PARK/BALLYCASEY 30 Pts Win Double W 4/5 & 8/11 +162
TOFINO BAY 5 Pts EW Unplaced Current running total +152From now on I’ll add the stakes and running total whenever I have a bet
Slowly but unsurely I’ve gradually worked back into a small profit, Annie Power looked the horse I thought she was although I feel 2 miles in The Champion Hurdle might be too short for her at that level, class might see her through, the trip never bothered Flyingbolt, but she finished in the manner of a World Hurdle contender.
No big bets today, a wee double on Moyle Park and Ballycasey, two more Festival contenders?
Followed by an EW on Tofino Bay in the hope the ground won’t be too quickCouldn’t have Mossey Joe. He’ll be 11 in March and while he looked promising in his younger days but his form is a long way short of winning a Gold Cup imo. Do you not think it’s more likely he’ll end up in the Foxhunters’ anyway?
Apparently he is being aimed at The Festival. David MacNamara said after Stratford "This proves he travels fine and a tilt at the Cheltenham Festival next year is now firmly on the cards."
If he’d ran in The Galway Plate and won (He surely would have off that weight) he wouldn’t have been eligible for The Foxhunters. That just leaves The Gold Cup.
A reproduction of his Stratford run (Course record broken in a hack canter by 7sec on no faster than good ground) would put him right in the mix.
If he goes for The Foxhunters he’s the safest bet since Freddie won it in 1963Hi Tommy
I have to agree with BOB’S WORTH & ANNIE POWER, both earmarked for The Festival
Bob’s Worth is half of my short list for The Gold Cup (With Mossey Joe)
Annie Power looks The Real DealVery minor loss on Sunday, still a tad in front on the season but it looks as if it’s big money time again tomorrow
ANNIE POWER looks home and hosed, She can lead, she can wait so the pace shouldn’t be a problem. This mare looks the real deal.
BOB’S WORTH too looks worth decent money, unbeaten going Left Handed, seems to go well fresh, only Tidal Bay worries me in the slightest (Might be worth an EW saver @ 9/1)
I’ve added UPSIE to today’s bets 10/11 looks exceptional value considering the current form of Willie Mullins, the fact she’s considered good enough to merit an entry in The Hatton’s Grace and the indisputable fact that the form of the opposition is peppered with question marks
Paddy Power Gold Cup : HIDDEN CYCLONE (EW, currently 25-1, his jumping needs to be at his best)
I kept the faith today, hard to do after Diamond Harry’s disappointing show on Friday but I’d earmarked Hidden Cyclone for this race way back when I was in a hot streak of form!
I made him around a 7-1 shot today so at (18-1, BOG) 20-1 and a 1/4 the odds 5 places!!! I had to go in heavy and with purpose, 3rd place finally lifted out of the red even if it is only by a couple of hundred £££s
For now I’ll be playing it with bit more restraint after a couple of heavy losses.
Money is on SEA LORD @ 11/8 while John Ferguson’s other runner PINE CREEK looks worth a little EWISAS can obviously be put on Hurricane Fly, even at 10% interest (1/10) for the loan of your savings to Paddy Power for 6 minutes or so, that’s an APR than would make the shareholders of Wonga weep with envy and have David Cameron asking questions in Parliament
I’ve had a wee bit on EW Emmit Buttery’s Ecuha Got 7s this morning now 3s, well in on Galway form, stable due another coup in The UK
Second, but he came good for me next time out. I saw his entry as they were going into the stalls, I rarely look at All Weather, no time to post, only just got on, sorry for the afterpost
That said I’m still well in the red
Two solid EWs this weekendDIAMOND HARRY
HIDDEN CYCLONE
£400 recouped on Simenon, some price!!!! I was "on" at 8-1 Best Odds, the 20’s was a very pleasant suprise.
I’ve had a wee bit on EW Emmit Buttery’s Ecuha Got 7s this morning now 3s, well in on Galway form, stable due another coup in The UKThe rest (of the £400) has gone on Quito De la Roque at 9/4 with Laddys GREAT price!
On a line through Days Hotel he’ll surely be too good for Realt Dbuh although neither are animals I’d trust with my life.thehorsesmouth wrote….
01 Nov 2013, 19:40
"I’ve just had a look at Sizing Europe’s previous efforts over three miles. I incorrectly thought he looked a blatant non stayer on both occasions, but that’s far from the case. The first time, when he finished second behind Kauto Star with China Rock in third, he never jumped with the same speed that he does over shorter trips and was very deliberate."Same story on Saturday, he needs to be going quicker than 3 mile pace for his jumping to have it’s usual crispness. That was obvious after 3 or 4 fences but it’s nevertheless frustrating to end up £250 out of pocket while beating all the main contenders but getting turned over by the outsider of the field.
Having a rare "Overseas" EW bet tonight, Simenon/Mullins/Hughes, they look a formidable combo off the allotted weight
Although I’ve had very few bets in October those I have had have been very expensive and I’ve suffered the worst start to a NH season in years. (My NH season runs from October to the Stratford Hunter meeting in June)
Thankfully October is behind me, it’s November now and a big thanks to Mrs CS for persuading me to lump on Jezki last night at 4-9, not the sort of bet I’d usually have and not even one I’d dream of putting up at a Daily Play, anyway by the time we’d had dinner he was down to 1-4.
Those who know me know how rarely I back McCoy, a jockey I never seem get on the right day.
With most of October’s losses recouped on Jezki I’ve got MrsCS’s blessing to have a really decent EW bet on Sizing Europe 3-1 EW with Paddy Power , enough to put me well in the black on the season
I know he’s never won over 3 miles but I’ve always thought he get the trip and his record is so much better than the frustrating First Lieutenant and the going should be better than in his last two tries at Down Royal.Assuming it’s a truly run race I can’t see Rebel Fitz getting beat, I’m assuming the Tizzard horse will have to make the running to try to run the finish out of Fitz but he looks a bit of a softie and based on all known form, he’ll falter on the hill.
I’d be a lot more confident of the outcome if there had been a few more runners and no chance of a falsely run racer so it’s a hefty bet but not a huge one.If Toner D’Oudairies latest run can be taken at anywhere near face value (and it looked ok to me) then Sizing Symphony EW looks real value in the 3 Mile Novice Chase
Thanks for the kind words Tommy, sorry if I missed your email, this last year has been chaotic, I’ve had to take a year out of my retirement to help sort out the aftermath of a major embezzlement that went on in what used to be “my day job”. It’s all but sorted out now and is in the hands of the fraud squad, so I’m back home with more time for racing
Re Our Conor, no I hadn’t heard any negative rumours, and I don’t expect we’ll learn too much from a run on the flat in October. If flat form translated to jumps we’d all be on Bob Le Beau for the Supreme Novices!”!!!
Even if Our Conor isn’t quite right after last season he has a similar profile as a 3YO/4YO to Kirriemuir who took his time to get over his astonishing juvenile season but still came good on the big day. He too was Champion Hurdle Ante Post fav over the Winter and subsequently won easily on the day, but at 50-1 if I recall correctly. Keep the faith.
Big disappointment for me this week is the poor turnout for Rebel Fitz’s Novice Chase tomorrow, I’d been planning a huge bet, now I may have to rethink the volume of my stake, I don’t like these tiny fields, who knows how the race is going to be run?Thanks Nathan, Rich
Just a thought for tomorrow……
CAIM HILL, a talented but complex racehorse. I don’t think that’s open to argument
Q : Can he win The Irish Ceasarewitch?
A : Yes, if the race goes his way but we’ll know what his chances are after the first furlong.I feel I know this horse as well as anyone, I sometimes wonder if perhaps I know him better that Philip Fenton
Here’s the conundrum, we know he doesn’t like jumping obstacles, indeed obviously he hates fences, as a side question, am I the only one that thinks Fenton is far from the best at schooling jumpers? (Exhibit 1, Dunguib) I’d have given up running him over fences years ago.
I’ve always rated Caim Hill from way back in his NHF days but it became blatantly obvious to me quite early in his jumping career that he’d never be a NH horse so when he belated appeared on the flat a year or so ago he became a “must back” animal and in nine runs he’s really paid his way with 4 wins from 9 outings, W 8-1 : W14-1 : W 6-1 : W 5-1
OK, I lost a packet on him at Galway when he didn’t get the run of the race but that’s the critical factor, unlike in his bumper days he now needs to there or thereabouts in his races, if he’s got too many horses in front of him he sulks and his race is over before it’s really started.
There are 30 runners tomorrow so he’ll need to get away really smartly and there’s no guarantee that’ll happen with a flag start, and then there’s his jockey…..Fran Berry.
Fine jockey, that’s not in dispute, normally I wouldn’t think twice about backing one of his mounts but is he the best choice for a horse that needs to be up with the pace? On balance I’d say no, Fran’s forte is swooping late and that won’t work for Caim Hill. I’d prefer someone naturally at home at the head of the field like Pat Smullen or Joseph O’Brien for instance.
So the question is to punt or not?
Although I hate to bet in handicaps I’m well in the black with Caim Hill so I’ve had a little EW at 25-1…..a huge price for a horse of his ability. If I was on betfair I’d wait till they’d got a furlong or so and if he was in the first six I’d have a decent punt.
I wouldn’t rule out Giant Quest’s chances either, an altogether more straightforward animal.
