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Irish Stamp
I’m not on Betfair I don’t lay horses but I’d make Long Run at least a 100-6 shot for the RSA. Based on the fact that I can’t see any reason for him to be a shorter price than Weird Al for instance.
I think he’d be much better advised to get a couple more runs under his belt and go to Aintree or Punchestown, and get a proper jockey on boardFar be it from me to p**s on anyone’s parade but if Long Run wins the RSA I think it’ll be time for me to give up backing horses. Its no race for an iffy jumper or a 5-Y-O, ok Star de Mohaison won one of the poorest RSA’s in living memory as a 5-Y-O but other than that you’ll need to go back to 1950 to find another 5-Y-O winner.
This years RSA looks one the better races of this decade.Pandorama seems strangely short of fans on this forum considering he has a virtually impeccable record, only beaten by Mikael D’Haguenet (who I have a gut feeling won’t be at The Festival.) I can see no reason why Weapons Amnesty is going to reverse the form (good ew though) ….after all Pandorama is as tough as old boots, and will be ideally suited by the hill and/or a fight to the line
Then there’s two British horses with outstaning credintials Weird Al, Knockara Beau, plus Bensalem, Roberta Goldbeck and Punchestowns or perhaps one of the untried trio…Diamond Harry, Mighty Man or even On Raglan Road if they can get a run over fences before the RSA
Long Run is so far down my list I’d need binoculars to find him
rich1985
WROTE
What’s the odds on Alan King having NO festival winners this year?!Rich……I’ve been thinking (the unthinkable)….
What’s the odds that WILLIE MULLINS will have NO festival winners this year?!
The problems he’s having with his string make me wonder if he’ll be sending many over and how ready the ones that do show up will be?
Only one winner from his last dozen runners, rumours galore, no firm decisions over his major horses, no strong bumper entry….something is FAR from rightI’ve been saying for a while that it seems to me that few can accept the Voler La Vedette / Go Native form at face value.
Perhaps if she’d won by 3 lengths she’d be a shorter price for The Champion Hurdle.
Someone said (on this forum) the form wasn’t worth a sausage, that’s NOT how it looked to me, if it comes up soft at Cheltenham she’ll take a deal of beating that’s for sure, even Dunguib will need to be at his best if they both show upmoehat wrote
Interesting that Gerard Butler has a runner, Trojan Reef; does he often run horses in bumpers?REPLY
He hasn’t had a runner in a bumper in at least 5 years
Just sharing my thoughts rather than giving a tip (or two)
On the face of it this looks like a bumper (no pun) day for Nicky Henderson.
However, if I was thinking of a bet I’d be looking for each way value as there’s almost sure to be a turnup or two.I’d be having a good look at two winning pointers,
DE FORGOTTEN MAN won an OK Point on dire ground in Ireland, if this turns out to be slog he should see the trip out fine and I wonder how hard Nicky Henserson would want Barry Geraghty to be on Anquetta? Trainer had a winner on Jan 1st so chances are the string weren’t too badly affected by the weather 10 days ago or so? Racing Post forescast price is 12-1The other one is SHOEGAZER, less interesting perhaps, especially at the 7-1 forecast SP in The Post. Well beaten on his only bumper run, given an easy time though. David Pipe trained
Just a couple of suggestions…….
Rory
As someone who only bets around twice a month I agree, I’m 100% behind the initative
Personally I’d be unlikely to bet on these UK AW bumper meetings unless a serious jockey showed up, Nina Carberry, Ruby walsh, Timmy Murphy or one of the other top Irish jockeys
I’d be lookinmg for a un-fashionable trainer, one who’s less likely to be schooling, and I’d want a horse with decent point to point formConsidering the difficulty in making travel arrangements for the horses and the number of entries who will be balloted out of these oversubsribed races wouldn’t it been a good idea to have 48 hour declacations for this meeting, with reserves maybe?
BTW I’m 100% behind the meeting, lets have more it’ll keep the horses ticking over. Maybe even a longer race or two restricted to chasers run bumper styleGerald
10 Jan 2010, 15:18Wrote
I hope he’s bloody entered!Hi Gerald
Terrific odds, they’d be some run on him in the betting if he ran with a proper female jockey onboard, I could see a huge "housewifes choice" gamble. He didn’t run last year as they though he might be on the small side for hurly burly of The National. Maybe JP is reconsidering the horse is very neat and nimble at his fences and he’d love to win the race, it would be great for racing too if Nina won the National. No need for Claire Balding to ask her to smile
KICKBACK wrote….As for Voler la Vedette, I think there’s plenty of hope for those of us who think the form isn’t worth a sausage:
1. Go Native was conceding 9 lbs.
2. The ground that day was worse than soft and suited the winner a lot more than the second.
3. Noel Meade has reiterated many times that he had done very little with Go Native since Tipperary.
4. Carberry never even asked the horse a question.Reply
1. He’ll have to give her 7lbs if she runs in The Champion
2. It’s unlikely to be any better than soft this year maybe a lot worse if the snow lies till March as it did in 1963
3. He also was reported as being dissapointed with his run, he could have underestimated the quality of the winner,
4. The winner was gone in a few strides and won with plenty in hand He probably could have got Go Native closer but I seriously doubt he can turn the form around on only 2 lbs better termsAlso, I thought Voler la Vedette was a little disappointing in Leopardstown
Reply
Agreed on the bare bones of the race but she won with plenty in hand and 2 miles looks like a better trip for her.
I’m not dismissing Go Native, I just can’t see past the other two right now but it might be academic as The Champ appears to be both horses "second entry"My point with Kirriemuir was that he’d shown little of his previous years form in the season he won the Champion hurdle, not that I fancy Binocular but he too is running well below what would have been expected.
For someone who (probably rightly) rates Go Native so highly how can you dismiss Voler La Vedette who blew him away at Down Royal, there’s no logic I can find for Go Native to reverse the form.
As for Dunguib’s price I’d have thought he’s be more like around 5-2 on the day if he ran, he’s surely the best novice to come out of Ireland since Golden Cygnet, who was installed as 5-2 favourite for the following years Champion Hurdle the day he won The Supreme Novices, that in the days of Monsfield, Night Nurse, Sea Pidgeon and Birds Nest too!!!
The Ante-Post King on 08 Jan 2010, 13:08
wrote: .You"re well named Sir!Thank You TAPK, perhaps I should explain my claim to the moniker….
As a Teenager I worked for an old style ex street bookie who used this “system” for his own bets, and very profitable it was for him too. I’ve used it since 1964 and only had very few losing (NH) seasons in all that time, none since the betting tax was abolished
Start each season with 100 point kitty (I only bet on NH these days)
As the kitty should never be supplemented that makes the first one or two bets very important, no half chancers, whims, old favourites etc, these opening bets need to be as near to cast iron as possible. Luckily this year my first bet was Loosen My Load won his bumper in style, got EW 7-1 It had looked a 1-2-3 certainty
Once the kitty is doubled take out the original 100 points, the season is now “ a bet to nothing” If that 100 points is lost consider re-instating the original kitty but never dip into more
Be just as diligent with every bet, waiting for the first bet is good practice in patience! I usually stick to top class meetings and the occasional Irish bumper, maybe average a bet every fortnight or so
Pick a meeting later in the season to build towards, it’s always been Cheltenham for me but Aintree or Punchestown would be just as good.
The entire remaining kitty goes on an each way yankee and an extra ew accumulator on the four best bets of the meeting of choice (sure to be in the frame is my criterion). This sometimes takes a lot of bottle if the kitty is quite large, this year has been very good to me, I’m 1059 points clear so far and with this weather I doubt if I’ll be having many bets before Cheltenham so it’s going to be a pretty big bet!!!
I very rarely include an odds on chance, even more rarely back anything over 10-1. Even four short price places will get the funds back, live to fight another dayt
For the rest of the season the size of my bets are then greatly reduced, my last bet would possibly be the big hunter chase at Stratford in May
This year I believe I’ve got three of the four already although none are groundbreaking, Dunguib wherever he runs, Garde Champetre and Denman but these may well be revised according to the weather holding up preparations, the going, could be very heavy this year if the snow keeps lying etc
As for the fourth, now An Siorrac is going to miss this year’s Festival it could be any one of a dozen or more …………
New postby Aido1 on 08 Jan 2010, 22:38
Timmy and Nina, whom I both love, would NOT suit Denman!?! What, Denman suddenly needs to be ridden quietly out the back???? Now that was funny!!!!Both Timmy and Nina are equally good on a front runner, both mould themselves to their mounts and let the horses swing along, both seem get the best out of their mounts
Quote Enda Bolger.."I’ve been saying it all along but I think she (Nina Carberry) is probably the best rider I’ve ever seen, she’s tremendous."I’m 100% behind Sam Thomas I just don’t think Denman needs a lot of (McCoy style) bustling except maybe at the start and passing the stables.
I fancied Binocular last year but didn’t have a bet, I rarely bet in The Champion Hurdle, but he’s not shown anything this season to make me think he’ll win it the 2010 renewal. Neither did Kirriemuir in 1965 of course, co-incidentally also third the previous year.
Until the trainers of either of the outstanding Irish novices, Dunguib, Voler La Vadette, come to the obvious conclusion that there is no outstanding hurdler in this years Champion Hurdle I’d be very wary about risking any Ante Post money……that said, Cashman’s 4-1 Dunguib with a run sounds very generous but this might be one of these years where something so far unconsidered comes out of the left field, one that’s managed to avoid interuptions to its preperation from the weather.
I’d advise waiting to nearer the day