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I think part of the reason Go Native was weak in the market that day was the support for Voler. Make no mistake, this mare is a machine.
Aaronizneez wrote:
the only blemish being the Fighting Fifth where the pace of the race would have not been to his advantage.
Are u trying to say the slow pace suited Go Native and Sublimity?? The faster they go, the better Go Native is.
Yes I’m trying to say on the ground at Newcastle the slow pace suited Go Native and Sublimity, at the very least much more than it suited Solwhit. I also have the feeling the faster they go the quicker Go Native and Sublimity will be stopping something I don’t think Solwhit will be doing. If the ground does come up soft at Cheltenham then I give Go Native little chance, if its good then his chance increases. Just my opinion of course.
Go Native stuffs Solwhit in Newcastle, where the slow pace was the same for everyone. Kyber Kim stuffs Celestial Halo and Punjabi, yet neither are being seriously considered as potential Champions?? And the vanquished ones are?? Celestial Halo and Punjabi have serious questions to answer. I know Punjabi needed the run, but he went out like a candle, and worryingly quickly for my liking. Celestial Halo was reported to be spot-on, but was beaten fair and square by a rapidly improving Kyber Kim. Solwhit, I believe, just does not have the raw speed for a Champion Hurdle, I can see him plodding on for a place, at best. Go Native and Kyber Kim are the 2 improvers, and have shown the best recent form. They should be accorded more respect.
If the ground is soft then Khyber Kim is a serious threat I would believe, even Sentry Duty appeals if the CH is his next run should make him the better of it.
Go Native is 2nd fav so he has been given his due respect but I guess there would be huge liabilties on Zaynar, there is massive money on him double figures with some firms, only a defeat at Wincanton would increase his odds.
Yeah, I know Sentry Duty dismissed Katchit, but thats not such a huge accomplishment these days, is it? I couldnt be having Sentry Duty, I just dont think hes good enough.
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Waste of time running Sentry Duty in the Champion Hurdle again and the World Hurdle seems to be out of the question. Most likely he’ll go for the Tote Trophy then be let down aqnotch and come back fresh for the Scottish Champion Hurdle.
I do agree with that last post Fist,Also i can see Punjabi reversing the form with Medermit after travelling the best in the last race till taking a blow,But Ffoss las will probably have all this white stuff to,anyway im off sledging.yeee ha
Ante-post preview to the March 16 highlight….
And TRF’s very own ante-post preview plus selctions –
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-features/2010/01/chmapion-hurdle-ante-post-preview/
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Good bit of writing and I quite liked this bit: "However, Nicky Henderson, his trainer, will have had one race in mind all season and that won’t be until March so it’s safe to assume we haven’t seen the best of Binocular so far this term" Has he been reading my mail?
Didn’t like this bit
"That said, Binocular was clear third best in the last Champion Hurdle and nothing I’ve seen since has convinced me he’ll reverse the form"In fact sorry to say I don’t understand his way of thinking. If he thinks Binocular will be back to his best in March surely being a 6 year old now he’d like most hurdlers improve naturally past Punjabi?
Can understand him going for Go Native. I watched his last race and the way he eased into the race and glided past Binocular was very impressive. That said, early season form rarely works out. Binocular did exactly the a same to Celestial Halo twice and beat him a lot further than Go Native beat Binocular and we all know what happened in March.
The fact of the matter is Go Native has beaten Sublimity 2 1/2 lengths and Starluck a short head and that isn’t good enough to be winning a Champion Hurdle. On his day Sublimity wouldn’t get within 10 lengths of Binocular and Starluck’s form is very poor in any other decent race he has run in. When you consider he failed to beat Mr Thriller and Nicky Henderson 4th string destroyed him the other day it has to make you think he’s not top class.
I’ve seen thousands of Go Native’s win races like they are world beaters but when push really comes to shove 95% of them fail miserably. Rainbow View’s stable companion at Newmarket springs to mind………..don’t think she won a race after that and was made 6/5 fav for the Guineas after convincing the world she had improved out of all recognition. Like Go Native she beat SFA.
To be fair Go Native is a Cheltenham winner which is a big plus on his side but I will put my faith in Nicky Henderson to bring Binocular back to his very best. Year after year we see proof that no form is better than Champion Hurdle form. Horses that have proved they can handle the pace and be involved in the finish very often do so again and with Nicky Henderson in charge of 2 of them and Paul Nichols the other Go Native better be everything your man thinks he is.
I fancied Binocular last year but didn’t have a bet, I rarely bet in The Champion Hurdle, but he’s not shown anything this season to make me think he’ll win it the 2010 renewal. Neither did Kirriemuir in 1965 of course, co-incidentally also third the previous year.
Until the trainers of either of the outstanding Irish novices, Dunguib, Voler La Vadette, come to the obvious conclusion that there is no outstanding hurdler in this years Champion Hurdle I’d be very wary about risking any Ante Post money……that said, Cashman’s 4-1 Dunguib with a run sounds very generous but this might be one of these years where something so far unconsidered comes out of the left field, one that’s managed to avoid interuptions to its preperation from the weather.
I’d advise waiting to nearer the dayI fancied Binocular last year but didn’t have a bet, I rarely bet in The Champion Hurdle, but he’s not shown anything this season to make me think he’ll win it the 2010 renewal. Neither did Kirriemuir in 1965 of course, co-incidentally also third the previous year.
Until the trainers of either of the outstanding Irish novices, Dunguib, Voler La Vadette, come to the obvious conclusion that there is no outstanding hurdler in this years Champion Hurdle I’d be very wary about risking any Ante Post money……that said, Cashman’s 4-1 Dunguib with a run sounds very generous but this might be one of these years where something so far unconsidered comes out of the left field, one that’s managed to avoid interuptions to its preperation from the weather.
I’d advise waiting to nearer the dayVoler La Vadette is not a novice
I fancied Binocular last year but didn’t have a bet, I rarely bet in The Champion Hurdle, but he’s not shown anything this season to make me think he’ll win it the 2010 renewal. Neither did Kirriemuir in 1965 of course, co-incidentally also third the previous year.
Until the trainers of either of the outstanding Irish novices, Dunguib, Voler La Vadette, come to the obvious conclusion that there is no outstanding hurdler in this years Champion Hurdle I’d be very wary about risking any Ante Post money……that said, Cashman’s 4-1 Dunguib with a run sounds very generous but this might be one of these years where something so far unconsidered comes out of the left field, one that’s managed to avoid interuptions to its preperation from the weather.
I’d advise waiting to nearer the daySpeaking of Kirriemuir – there are plenty of horses who were placed in a Champion Hurdle who went on to win it the following year – Punjabi, Brave Inca and Hors La Loi III in recent years.
However, I feel that stat is more to do with second season novices than anything else. The fact remains that it takes an exceptional second season novice to win championship races and while Go Native has done that twice this year it’s possible that it could be a chink in his armour come March. I think he is a real good thing for Champion Hurdle 2011, and think he deserves to be favourite for this years and feel he might just pull it off. He could be exceptional.As for Dunguib and Voler la Vedette. Dunguib at 4s with a run for Champion Hurdle glory is ridiculous – he would be an 8s or 10s shot. Voler la Vedette has become something of a talking horse. Her from isn’t up to scratch whatever you you slice it. I also think that Quevega is a better mare and if Willie Mullins thinks he can’t win a Champion hurdle with her then there isn’t a mare in training who could.
As for Dunguib and Voler la Vedette. Dunguib at 4s with a run for Champion Hurdle glory is ridiculous – he would be an 8s or 10s shot. Voler la Vedette has become something of a talking horse. Her from isn’t up to scratch whatever you you slice it. I also think that Quevega is a better mare and if Willie Mullins thinks he can’t win a Champion hurdle with her then there isn’t a mare in training who could.
Be very wary of dismissing Voler la vedette. There was no fluke about her destruction of Go Native at Down royal. I accecpt that the ground was softer than ideal for Go Native that day but He has since come out and won twice on ground softer than good.
VLVs last win looks disappointing from a form book perspective but i was hugely impressed. She pulled violently for most of the race and it was her class that got her home over a trip i dont believe she stays. She will be a very different proposition over a fast run 2 miles.
Also contrary to some who believe her to be a mudlark, her breeding suggests that she will be at least as effective on better ground. Murphy commented after that Down royal win "She`s unlikely to run before Christmas if the ground stays like this".
I think if she hadn beaten Go Native so far at Down royal, (say she’d won by half a length or even benn beaten by same distance) she’d be a more fashionable proposition. The assumption is that Because Go Native was beaten 13l he can’t have given his true running. This is a very dangerous assumption.My point with Kirriemuir was that he’d shown little of his previous years form in the season he won the Champion hurdle, not that I fancy Binocular but he too is running well below what would have been expected.
For someone who (probably rightly) rates Go Native so highly how can you dismiss Voler La Vedette who blew him away at Down Royal, there’s no logic I can find for Go Native to reverse the form.
As for Dunguib’s price I’d have thought he’s be more like around 5-2 on the day if he ran, he’s surely the best novice to come out of Ireland since Golden Cygnet, who was installed as 5-2 favourite for the following years Champion Hurdle the day he won The Supreme Novices, that in the days of Monsfield, Night Nurse, Sea Pidgeon and Birds Nest too!!!
Re: Dunguib – I think that there is still 6/4 availble for what looks an incredibly weak Supreme (20s bar 2, and good and all as Menorah might be I think he is second favourite by default) says a lot. Also, if by some miracle Dunguib did turn up in the Champion, I would love to see how anyone could make him shorter than Go Native, Solwhit, Punjabi or Zaynar to name but four. He has bags of potential but that allied with bumper form should carry a health warning. Anyone who likes him for the Champion must consider him an absolute lock in the Supreme and if you do best of luck but he’s not for me.
As for Voler la Vedette, I think there’s plenty of hope for those of us who think the form isn’t worth a sausage:
1. Go Native was conceding 9 lbs.
2. The ground that day was worse than soft and suited the winner a lot more than the second.
3. Noel Meade has reiterated many times that he had done very little with Go Native since Tipperary.
4. Carberry never even asked the horse a question.Also, I thought Voler la Vedette was a little disappointing in Leopardstown. Granted she didn’t settle well and maybe didn’t stay but did look in trouble for a few strides. The two Harrington horses (who stable has been woefully out of form for some time now) would be tailed off in any Grade 1 (I’m aware of Zarinava’s form last season but the horse seems to have gone sour since.)
Anyway, should be a cracking race whoever runs!
KICKBACK wrote….As for Voler la Vedette, I think there’s plenty of hope for those of us who think the form isn’t worth a sausage:
1. Go Native was conceding 9 lbs.
2. The ground that day was worse than soft and suited the winner a lot more than the second.
3. Noel Meade has reiterated many times that he had done very little with Go Native since Tipperary.
4. Carberry never even asked the horse a question.Reply
1. He’ll have to give her 7lbs if she runs in The Champion
2. It’s unlikely to be any better than soft this year maybe a lot worse if the snow lies till March as it did in 1963
3. He also was reported as being dissapointed with his run, he could have underestimated the quality of the winner,
4. The winner was gone in a few strides and won with plenty in hand He probably could have got Go Native closer but I seriously doubt he can turn the form around on only 2 lbs better termsAlso, I thought Voler la Vedette was a little disappointing in Leopardstown
Reply
Agreed on the bare bones of the race but she won with plenty in hand and 2 miles looks like a better trip for her.
I’m not dismissing Go Native, I just can’t see past the other two right now but it might be academic as The Champ appears to be both horses "second entry"
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