2013-14 ….Another profitable Season? Why ever not!!

Thanks Nathan, Rich

Just a thought for tomorrow……

CAIM HILL, a talented but complex racehorse. I don’t think that’s open to argument

Q : Can he win The Irish Ceasarewitch?
A : Yes, if the race goes his way but we’ll know what his chances are after the first furlong.

I feel I know this horse as well as anyone, I sometimes wonder if perhaps I know him better that Philip Fenton
Here’s the conundrum, we know he doesn’t like jumping obstacles, indeed obviously he hates fences, as a side question, am I the only one that thinks Fenton is far from the best at schooling jumpers? (Exhibit 1, Dunguib) I’d have given up running him over fences years ago.
I’ve always rated Caim Hill from way back in his NHF days but it became blatantly obvious to me quite early in his jumping career that he’d never be a NH horse so when he belated appeared on the flat a year or so ago he became a “must back” animal and in nine runs he’s really paid his way with 4 wins from 9 outings, W 8-1 : W14-1 : W 6-1 : W 5-1
OK, I lost a packet on him at Galway when he didn’t get the run of the race but that’s the critical factor, unlike in his bumper days he now needs to there or thereabouts in his races, if he’s got too many horses in front of him he sulks and his race is over before it’s really started.
There are 30 runners tomorrow so he’ll need to get away really smartly and there’s no guarantee that’ll happen with a flag start, and then there’s his jockey…..Fran Berry.
Fine jockey, that’s not in dispute, normally I wouldn’t think twice about backing one of his mounts but is he the best choice for a horse that needs to be up with the pace? On balance I’d say no, Fran’s forte is swooping late and that won’t work for Caim Hill. I’d prefer someone naturally at home at the head of the field like Pat Smullen or Joseph O’Brien for instance.
So the question is to punt or not?
Although I hate to bet in handicaps I’m well in the black with Caim Hill so I’ve had a little EW at 25-1…..a huge price for a horse of his ability. If I was on betfair I’d wait till they’d got a furlong or so and if he was in the first six I’d have a decent punt.
I wouldn’t rule out Giant Quest’s chances either, an altogether more straightforward animal.

Thanks for the kind words Tommy, sorry if I missed your email, this last year has been chaotic, I’ve had to take a year out of my retirement to help sort out the aftermath of a major embezzlement that went on in what used to be “my day job”. It’s all but sorted out now and is in the hands of the fraud squad, so I’m back home with more time for racing

Re Our Conor, no I hadn’t heard any negative rumours, and I don’t expect we’ll learn too much from a run on the flat in October. If flat form translated to jumps we’d all be on Bob Le Beau for the Supreme Novices!”!!!
Even if Our Conor isn’t quite right after last season he has a similar profile as a 3YO/4YO to Kirriemuir who took his time to get over his astonishing juvenile season but still came good on the big day. He too was Champion Hurdle Ante Post fav over the Winter and subsequently won easily on the day, but at 50-1 if I recall correctly. Keep the faith.
Big disappointment for me this week is the poor turnout for Rebel Fitz’s Novice Chase tomorrow, I’d been planning a huge bet, now I may have to rethink the volume of my stake, I don’t like these tiny fields, who knows how the race is going to be run?

Although I’ve had very few bets in October those I have had have been very expensive and I’ve suffered the worst start to a NH season in years. (My NH season runs from October to the Stratford Hunter meeting in June)
Thankfully October is behind me, it’s November now and a big thanks to Mrs CS for persuading me to lump on Jezki last night at 4-9, not the sort of bet I’d usually have and not even one I’d dream of putting up at a Daily Play, anyway by the time we’d had dinner he was down to 1-4.
Those who know me know how rarely I back McCoy, a jockey I never seem get on the right day.
With most of October’s losses recouped on Jezki I’ve got MrsCS’s blessing to have a really decent EW bet on Sizing Europe 3-1 EW with Paddy Power , enough to put me well in the black on the season
I know he’s never won over 3 miles but I’ve always thought he get the trip and his record is so much better than the frustrating First Lieutenant and the going should be better than in his last two tries at Down Royal.

£400 recouped on Simenon, some price!!!! I was "on" at 8-1 Best Odds, the 20’s was a very pleasant suprise.
I’ve had a wee bit on EW Emmit Buttery’s Ecuha Got 7s this morning now 3s, well in on Galway form, stable due another coup in The UK

The rest (of the £400) has gone on Quito De la Roque at 9/4 with Laddys GREAT price!
On a line through Days Hotel he’ll surely be too good for Realt Dbuh although neither are animals I’d trust with my life.

Paddy Power Gold Cup : HIDDEN CYCLONE (EW, currently 25-1, his jumping needs to be at his best)

I kept the faith today, hard to do after Diamond Harry’s disappointing show on Friday but I’d earmarked Hidden Cyclone for this race way back when I was in a hot streak of form!
I made him around a 7-1 shot today so at (18-1, BOG) 20-1 and a 1/4 the odds 5 places!!! I had to go in heavy and with purpose, 3rd place finally lifted out of the red even if it is only by a couple of hundred £££s
For now I’ll be playing it with bit more restraint after a couple of heavy losses.
Money is on SEA LORD @ 11/8 while John Ferguson’s other runner PINE CREEK looks worth a little EW

ISAS can obviously be put on Hurricane Fly, even at 10% interest (1/10) for the loan of your savings to Paddy Power for 6 minutes or so, that’s an APR than would make the shareholders of Wonga weep with envy and have David Cameron asking questions in Parliament

Very minor loss on Sunday, still a tad in front on the season but it looks as if it’s big money time again tomorrow

ANNIE POWER looks home and hosed, She can lead, she can wait so the pace shouldn’t be a problem. This mare looks the real deal.

BOB’S WORTH too looks worth decent money, unbeaten going Left Handed, seems to go well fresh, only Tidal Bay worries me in the slightest (Might be worth an EW saver @ 9/1)