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Kauto Star CANNOT win – GULP!!!

Home Forums Archive Topics Kauto Star CANNOT win – GULP!!!

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  • #21196
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    Or, he MIGHT but I wouldn’t want to bet on it.

    Here it is – no sitting on the fence.

    I love this horse, love him.

    BUT he is a terrible bet in the Gold Cup.

    Age will beat him I’m afraid – it beats them all in the end.

    Strike rate of horses over 11 years old at the Festival last 9 years = 3.97%

    Losses on your investment = -43.25%

    OK – He’s a bit of a freakish racehorse, he is trained by a master trainer, He has the best jockey in the business on board. And he’s proven that he’s still near the top of his game.

    But he surely won’t be able to cope with younger legs coming at him once they jump that last fence.

    Will he?

    #395685
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1571

    More to the point, Racing UK were offering 12 months free (sign up before Midday) subscription if he wins!

    #395688
    CheltenhamSpecialistCheltenhamSpecialist
    Member
    • Total Posts 1969

    More to the point, Racing UK were offering 12 months free (sign up before Midday) subscription if he wins!

    Shame you didn’t post this info earlier :(

    #395691
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26575

    When was the last time a 12 year old (to run in the race) put up such a good performance (albeit as an 11 year old) as Kauto Star?

    For sure, it is possible or even probable he’s on the downgrade – but at least some of that is represented in the price.

    Long Run 2/1 best price, Kauto Star 4/1.
    Yet Kauto Star has the best form this season.

    Of course Kauto Star CAN win!
    Question is does Kauto Star have a better than 20% chance of winning?

    You could argue Long Run’s form of last year is as good. But is he in the same form? Kauto Star was below form last season, so it’s difficult to gauge.
    You could argue Kauto Star’s best form is at Kempton over 3 miles.

    I’d say the 4/1 is about right, considering his form and possibility/probability of being on the downgrade. 2/1 about right for Long Run too, as I’d say the combined price of the two together stand a little better than 50% and that’s what it is (33 + 20 = 53%). At todays prices I wouldn’t be a backer or layer. Already on Long Run @ 11/4.

    value is everything
    #395704
    CheltenhamSpecialistCheltenhamSpecialist
    Member
    • Total Posts 1969

    Red Power, Prince Regent, Mandarin and Cottage Rake were the only 11-Y-Olds to win The Gold Cup (Some very special horses there)

    Silver Fame and What A Myth are the only previous 12-Y-Olds to win

    #395708
    IronMikeIronMike
    Member
    • Total Posts 18

    Kauto can win but it seems highly unlikely – just not to me. I’m rather biased though as he’s my favourite horse.

    I think, with a sprinkle of hope, that if Kauto Star turns up showing no ill effects from his recent fall he will surprise everyone. His preparation over the last 2 weeks hasn’t been ideal but if he travels well on the day and jumps like his previous 2 races then he must be in with a great chance. Kauto for me. :mrgreen:

    #395726
    HimselfHimself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3772

    Lay, Lay, Lay ! :twisted:

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #395749
    trapper john
    Member
    • Total Posts 196

    just cant have kauto myself i just get the feeling this years gold cup might have an outsider win it

    #395799
    milbear0milbear0
    Participant
    • Total Posts 274

    To blindly apply stats correlated from lesser horses to kauto star is mindless. Judge on his performance this year, along with the likelyhood of age continuing to reduce his talents by all means but there has never been another 12 year old kauto star contest this race previously. Long run is a fundamentally flawed horse, and it’s those jumping and lack of tactical pace flaws that kauto has exploited this season. Can kauto win again over 3m2f? Only a small minded man would say NO. The gamblers amongst us bet on the likelyhood.

    #395806
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1571

    To blindly apply stats correlated from lesser horses to kauto star is mindless. Judge on his performance this year, along with the likelyhood of age continuing to reduce his talents by all means but there has never been another 12 year old kauto star contest this race previously. Long run is a fundamentally flawed horse, and it’s those jumping and lack of tactical pace flaws that kauto has exploited this season. Can kauto win again over 3m2f? Only a small minded man would say NO. The gamblers amongst us bet on the likelyhood.

    The fact that he was coming to the end of his tether over 3 miles on a park course is something visual that it would be foolish to ignore.

    #395832
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    The only recent precedent was Moscow Flyer who started 5/1 in the 2006 Champion Chase –

    Result – WELL BEATEN FIFTH!!

    #395835
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26575

    The only recent precedent was Moscow Flyer who started 5/1 in the 2006 Champion Chase –

    Result –

    Moscow Flyer was nowhere near his best at any time that

    season

    though Corm.

    Moscow Flyer at his

    very best

    is rated

    184+

    by Timeform.
    Moscow Flyer’s

    best rating in the 05/06 season

    was

    153

    .
    According to Timeform, Moscow Flyer was always

    over 30 lbs inferior

    in his 11/12 year old season.

    Kauto Star has proven as good/almost as good as he’s ever been as close as late December (on his latest start).

    value is everything
    #395842
    KINGFISHERKINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1511

    Or, he MIGHT but I wouldn’t want to bet on it.

    Here it is – no sitting on the fence.

    I love this horse, love him.

    BUT he is a terrible bet in the Gold Cup.

    Age will beat him I’m afraid – it beats them all in the end.

    Strike rate of horses over 11 years old at the Festival last 9 years = 3.97%

    Losses on your investment = -43.25%

    OK – He’s a bit of a freakish racehorse, he is trained by a master trainer, He has the best jockey in the business on board. And he’s proven that he’s still near the top of his game.

    But he surely won’t be able to cope with younger legs coming at him once they jump that last fence.

    Will he?

    Agree with every word! He WONT win!…….. but if he does I’ll probably have a tear running down my cheek! :cry:

    #395845
    TriptychTriptych
    Participant
    • Total Posts 10395

    I have to agree Cormack for the very reason that Kauto Star doesn’t go well at Cheltenham, year after year he finds one better and when he fell in 2010 I switched off the TV thinking the worst.
    In view of his schooling setback, it’s on the cards he’s going to make a mistake, I will have my hands over my eyes until the last fence.
    The whole world wants him there on Friday but I want him here on Saturday and for the rest of the season.
    If I have to be honest… :) I hope he doesn’t run.

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #395929
    Tete Rouge
    Participant
    • Total Posts 119

    I’m not sure I shall be able to watch – and I’ll be at Cheltenham so if anyone knows any good hiding places, let me know! Not blaming them for running him, though – given his performances this year, how could they not? It doesn’t matter if he doesn’t win (it would be the most incredible bonus if he did), provided he comes back safe – he simply doesn’t have anything to prove. In beating Long Run twice this season, when he’s nowhere near the horse he was in his prime, Kauto has put his achievements (and, probably, those of Denman) into their proper, hugely exalted, perspective.

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