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THM Goes Jumping 2011-12

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  • #19650
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5475

    It’s the time of year again when the better jumpers are beginning to reappear. One aspect of my betting that I’m going to try improve upon is backing Irish horses in England. This has proved costly to me over the summer and perhaps it’s because my knowledge of the English Flat scene could well be below-par. It’s something I’ll have to keep an eye on with regards to jumping game too. There’s a decent card at Ballinrobe tomorrow with one horse in particular catching the eye.

    I marked Sorceror down as one to follow when he finished a close up 4th behind Captain Cee Bee, Zaarito and An Cathaoir Mór in what was probably the hottest beginners chase of the season.

    He should have subsequently beaten Shakervilz imo but was given a tender ride by Davy Russell who looked to have the future in mind. He’s since put in a couple of poor runs but returns tomorrow off the back of an eleven month absence. If he returns somewhere near his best he should see off the evergreen Spring The Que. A Graded Chase could well be within this one’s compass if he retains all of his ability.

    Another horse worth watching is the Colm Murphy trained Ballyhoura in the opening maiden hurdle. He’s always been well thought of and proved quite expensive for me last year. His resolution in a finish could well be a bit questionable and looks like one that needs producing as late as possible. It looks a very weak race however and he shouldn’t be out of the frame.

    #371385
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
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    Didn’t get a chance to see the racing today let alone back anything. Can’t believe the price Ballyhoura went off at, and his resolution in a finish must be seriously questioned now after another tame effort where he faded into third.

    Sorceror produced the goods however and I’m sick I missed out on the tasty 11/4. Tis always the way. :(

    #371389
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17532

    Unlucky with Sorceror thm, that’s a sore one, hopefully you’ll get a second shot at him.

    Good luck with your selections this NH season, hopefully have a few quid in the pocket come March. Aside from the obvious one(s), the 2 "lesser knowns" I’m keeping an eye on from your side of the water will be The Engineer, and Twigline. Probably jinxed them now……time will tell.

    #371924
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
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    Won’t be around tomorrow but I’ll be having €20 e/w on Letter Of Credit at Clonmel provided I can get 4/1.

    #372471
    sandwith100
    Member
    • Total Posts 47

    Good luck.
    I have found that when i spread the time on studying form over the country that i end up handing cash to the bookies. When i am selective in my betting and stick to the Northern trainers i usually make a tidy profit.
    Irish raiders are always worth the watching. Perth has become an Irish benefit venue in recent years. When you have 30 runners in Irish handicaps on a wet Tuesday it pays to take notice of the winner. :D

    #372578
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5475

    Thanks lads, hopefully this season will be as good as the last. Can’t wait for the obvious one Venture! :D It definitely pays to be selective alright.

    When I got to the bookies Letter Of Credit was only 7/2 so had no bet. Have yet to see the race but he was well beaten into third I hear :?

    Sizing Europe returns to action at Gowran tomorrow and at Even money looks a good bet. He was beaten on his return to action last year by a horse of similar ability to Rubi Light but thee shorter trip should suit better here and word is he’s fitter now than when making his seasonal debut last year.

    #372656
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5475

    I believe Boylesports have made a huge mistake pricing up the Friends of Tipperary Hurdle tomorrow. Captain Cee Bee is by far the most talented horse in the field imo, and 7/1 seems like an early Christmas present.

    Luska Lad, Donnas Palm and The Real Article are all good horses, but would any have won a Supreme Novices? I don’t think so. The Bull Hayes and Gimli’s Rock are also horses I like but realistically I don’t think they’re in the same ball park as Captain Cee Bee.

    On the terms he beat The Real Article at Tipperary, he shouldn’t win, but I believe he was under-cooked that day. When he made his comeback from injury against Zaarito, An Cathaoir Mór and Sorceror a couple of years ago he came on a lot for the run, and I think he’s a horse who always needs to blow the cobwebs away on a comeback.

    On the running of the Galway Hurdle, The Real Article shouldn’t get near him tomorrow. However, I believe both horses may have been unlucky/below par that day. The Real Article looked thrown in yet didn’t perform, whereas McCoy was never happy with where he had Captain Cee Bee from the start.

    It’s also my belief that he has potential to be better over hurdles than fences. His jumping over fences has always been a bit sketchy, and he’s inclined to brush through the top of them. Hurdles present less of a challenge and should give him more confidence and momentum.

    Donna’s Palm had a strange sort of year last year where he was moved up and down in trip, never getting his head in front. If he rediscovers his form from a couple of years back he will be a big danger. Luska Lad was soundly beaten by Dunguib at Gowran last year on heavy ground. Would Luska Lad be such a short price favorite for this? I don’t think so. He was the highest rated novice hurdle in Ireland the season before last and rates as another danger. I’m not complaining though, because the fact he’s so short means the price about Captain Cee Bee is so big. And Captain Cee Bee is getting 3lb’s from these two rivals.

    AP McCoy is over for the ride also :shock: :D

    #373425
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
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    Today two horses interest me over the jumps: Dylan Ross and Silviniaco Conti.

    Dylan Ross was a leading bumper performer last year, and while Reizovic was also talented in that sphere, I think Dylan Ross’ form is better. Particularly the run in the Land Rover bumper behind Divine Rhapsody.

    Silviniaco Conti was half a length behind Cue Card at Cheltenham last year giving him 4lb’s. Today they’re off levels and he looks the type to appreciate jumping fences. He’s the sort of horse you can see trading very short for some of the Cheltenham novice chases during the season.

    Dylan Ross €15 win @ 6/5
    Silviniaco Conti €15 win @ 6/5

    – €30

    #373436
    Imperial CallImperial Call
    Member
    • Total Posts 2184

    Wasn’t the strongest maiden hurdle but that Dylan Ross is a decent animal. You could easily see him running up a bit of a sequence before Willie gets his younger horses out before the Royal Bond.

    #373442
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5475

    Hosed in didn’t he. I don’t know what happened to him at the Curragh behind Samain, but something had to be amiss. As I said, I think that Divine Rhapsody form is fantastic, and he too could take high rank among the novice hurdlers this year. Cure Card or Silviniaco Conti :?:

    #373445
    Imperial CallImperial Call
    Member
    • Total Posts 2184

    Texas Jack?

    #373451
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5475

    Hard to find one to beat him, but Pride Of The Artic looks the one most likely to follow him home.

    #373620
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5475

    Dylan Ross WON returns €33
    Silviniaco Conti well beaten.

    + €3

    Fri May 06, 2011 3:13 pm
    €10 win Uncle Junior @ 6/1

    I posted this during this year’s Punchestown Fesival, where Uncle Junior defied some poor jumping to come with a late challenge and win comfortably. His main asset is staying power and he showed that in abundance that day. He’s 9lb’s higher in the weights today, and the race is over 6f shorter, but if he can get himself within 4 or 5 lengths turning in he won’t be stopping on the run to the line.

    Uncle Junior €7.50 e/w @ 10/1

    – €12

    #373641
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5475

    Uncle Junior just didn’t have the pace to get into the race, but stayed on well to claim 3rd. He definitely has the ability to claim a big staying handicap this year.

    Rule 4 means I only get 9/1.

    Returns €24.38

    + €12.38

    #375380
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5475

    Can’t get over Zaarito’s price for the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter today. He was one of the best novices around a couple of years ago but has obviously had problems since. Receiving weight from all bar outsider Thunder Child, he must go close today. His jumping can be dodgy but hopefully he’ll have strengthened up since his novice days. I do think he’ll be better over further but he’s not short of pace either.

    €20 win Zaarito @ 7/1

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