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Well done Ham
The Pentagon ran a really promising race after 3 months out following a minor injury.
Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he improved past Saxon Warrior.
I’m surprised Saxon Warrior is a star low as 7/2 for the Derby. He won but he wasn’t impressive.
As for the race itself, I’m also going to side with Saxon Warrior at 5/2. Unless something goes bizarrely amiss, Ryan Moore will ride him and he should go off shorter than 5/2. As I said over on the 2 year old’s thread after he won, his performance in Naas left a big impression on me. I think he beat 3 very useful colts that day, Kew Gardens doing wonders for the form with his Zetland romp.
Saxon Warrior ran quite green that day, and he should be an improved horse for the experience. Using September as evidence, there’s no reason to suspect O’Brien can’t get these Deep Impact juveniles to keep on improving like the Galileo’s do.
The ground at Donny is currently Good to Soft, Good in places, and with limited showers forecast its possible Soft will be taken out of the description altogether, and it should definitely be no worse than it currently is. Saxon Warrior shaped like a horse who would prefer good ground on his debut win, like September, but he seemed to handle soft equally well.
Verbal Dexterity is a colt I really like, but like others here, it’s hard to have confidence in the Bolger yard going up against the O’Brien juggernaut. He has performed exceptionally well on soft surfaces up to now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean his best form will be restricted to soft surfaces, there isn’t enough evidence to say that definitively. In fact I think he has a rather low, straight action. The best ground he has ran on is Yielding, when he lost to Beckford, although the drop down to 6f was probably his undoing there rather than the going. I’m a big fan of the colt, and I’ve added him to my 28/1 Gustav Klimt bet for the Guineas, but O’Brien looks unstoppable at the moment and it can pay dividends to bank on that alone.
As far as I’m concerned it’s a two horse race between these two Bolger and O’Brien colts, The Pentagon’s form hasn’t worked out at all and he strikes me as a horse similar to Orderofthegarter, who recorded a wide margin success early in his career, before seeing his form slowly level off against stronger opposition. Nelson is a colt who I really like for the Derby, and have backed him at 33/1 accordingly, but Paddy Power – who seem to have an inside line with Ballydoyle runners – have him at 16/1 suggesting he’s a no-show. Roaring Lion might make up the Trifecta but I don’t think his form adds up to the two I’ve mentioned.
Saxon Warrior 5/2 is my main bet.
I’ve also done two doubles concerning Saxon Warrior and Verbal Dexterity:
Saxon Warrior to win the Racing Post Trophy and the Derby 35/1
Verbal Dexterity to win the Racing Post Trophy and the Guineas 74/1
Hi Voleur, where did you get that price on the double for Saxon Warrior please? I wouldn’t mind a bit of that too
Indian Chief was favourite for the Dante in 2013 following a win in a Leopardstown maiden when he was trained by O’Brien. He came third in the Dante beaten 2 lengths earning an RPR of 110.
He is now with Rebecca Bastiman and is rated 66 by the Handicapper.
The Pentagon does have a stamina-packed pedigree and was ridden by Ana yesterday, suggesting the win caught Ballydoyle by surprise as much as the rest of us!
I expect he’ll be involved in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud at the end of the season en route to 1m 4f races next year. Hard to say whether he is Derby class at this point but he looks as likely a runner as any.
The excellent Dan Briden made an interesting point on Twitter yesterday. Two of Gustav Klimt‘s siblings palpably failed to train-on from 2 to 3. Does that worry any Gus backers?
I don’t think they will be sending The Pentagon to Saint Cloud in October, not with that fast ground action.
It wouldn’t surprise me if we only see him once more this season, maybe in the group 3 at Leopardstown during September that Australia won, or perhaps the Racing Post Trophy.
He was quietly fancied yesterday. I read somewhere that he was 14/1 in the morning – not sure if that is true. He was backed from an opening show of 6/1 into 9/2 so there was money for him.
Let’s hope he is more of an Australia or Camelot rather than a JFK or Indian Chief.
To perform like that in one of the most, if not the most illustrious flat maiden in Ireland (previous winners include Australia, New Approach and Teofilo) would suggest he is the real deal.
Akihiro was supplemented today for the Greffulhe.
Seems odd he wasn’t entered at the first stage. Maybe it was just a clerical error.
So Barney Roy is now 16/1 for the Derby on Betfair, but they’ve mysteriously voided the money I had on him at big prices
I’ve emailed them but it’s a bit weird. Does anyone have experience of this?
I had backed and layed Tartini a few times but his name is now off the list.
He’s not entered but never was to start with anyway but may turn up somewhere and run a blinder and get supplemented
Nathan, he’s due to run at Epsom on Wednesday, Robert Tart has been booked to ride.
If he wins then he gets an automatic entry.
Winner is improving…fast, was match fit and is much more experienced.
Akihiro deserves another chance and will hopefully improve on his first run of the season…his first run in over 7 months.
He looked the winner until the final 10/20 yards…beaten by match fitness in my view.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/852510905984196608/video/1
That’s Cracksman having a race course gallop at Chelmsford earlier in the week.
Would you be worried about his knee action and thus his ability to handle Epsom?
Prix Noialles is usually a French Derby trial.
The Prix Greffulhe is the one the French use as a trial for Epsom.
I’ve backed Akihiro too for Epsom. Steve, do you think they might take in both the Noialles and Greffulhe with Akihiro?
I know Plumatic was engaged for the Noialles, maybe they just wanted to give him a little bit more time after his debut, or maybe they have had a change of heart over targets after they galloped together (Akihiro and Plumatic) before racing earlier this week. I hope not.
Ch’tibello only 50/50 for this. He has had a soft palate op. Trainer said he felt he didn’t get home on Saturday as well as expected.
Please stop Bobby your views are painful.
Bobby, is your avatar suppose to be upside down….?
Nathan, it’s not upside down
