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Cheers, although i tend to agree he may struggle in the guineas but i feel with their being so many about that he will start off in a guineas trial
Pentagon ran a cracker for 3rd after being off for so long, i dont think theirs much between him and saxon for the derby
Well done Ham
The Pentagon ran a really promising race after 3 months out following a minor injury.
Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he improved past Saxon Warrior.
I’m surprised Saxon Warrior is a star low as 7/2 for the Derby. He won but he wasn’t impressive.
Well done ham with that forecast I did The Lion each way and must say he was mightily unlucky throwing the race away jinking left yet again… but John Gosden will straighten him out and he’ll be a force to be reckoned with next season.
Congrats to Aiden O’Brien breaking Bobby Frankel’s record, you just have admire him and nice gesture from John Gosden in the winners enclosure coming over to congratulate him.
Very well done Steve for all the faith you had in Saxon Warrior, lost count of how many times you mentioned his name on here you really kept the faith and well done to judge and everyone else who backed him.
Chilean ran as I expected… he just didn’t have the class for this race,similar to Beat The Bank last week, he looked impressive in his last win against weaker opposition..but he is certainly one to keep on side for next season back in his comfort zone..
Kind of sad now as that almost wraps up the flat for this year but what a way to bow out and lots to look forward to next seson just 5 months to go..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I think that this was Saxon Warrior’s first real race. He was still a bit green I felt and he set off for home early enough. He had travelled really well, particularly compared to Verbal Dexterity, who was under the cosh all the way really.
Saxon Warrior may not win a really good Guineas but I would rather have him than the Bolger horse who looked devoid of pace today. 9/1 for Verbal Dexterity in the 2000 Guineas looks a joke to me after watching today’s race.
Roaring Lion has run an excellent race and defied his drift in the betting. The Pentagon ran better than his massive drift indicate he might but he never threatened to win my match bet based on the 9/4 odds against Roaring Lion at 7’s in the opening show for the race.
Seahenge was the big disappointment, finishing behind the Godolphin novice race winner. It was a kick in the nuts for the Dewhurst form and it’s a case of how many excuses can you give a horse who is only 2/5 in his career?
Looking at the 2000 Guineas now and Saxon Warrior varies between 5/1 right up to 14/1 (Sun Bets)
I would probably say 8/1 would be about the right price all things considered.
In the Derby Saxon Warrior sits between 7/2 and 6/1 now.
I notice that Bet365 are still showing Saxon Warrior at 66/1 for the Guineas Derby double. That makes no sense, as they are 7/1 and 4/1 on the two singles for the race, which works out at 39/1 for the double.
Relative contingency normally means that the odds on the double is squashed because the winning of the first leg makes the second leg more likely to happen. 66/1 or 39/1, oh it’s a tough call to make.
Not sure how much, if any, money you will get at 66/1 but it’s still showing as the odds for the double and clearly it makes no sense now.
Happy enough with today and particularly regarding the Derby with some nice ante-post slips at 33/1 25/1 and 20/1. Something to dream about this winter and spring.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Pentagon ran a good race back in third, encouraging enough performance with next years Derby in mind.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Cheers, although i tend to agree he may struggle in the guineas but i feel with their being so many about that he will start off in a guineas trial
Pentagon ran a cracker for 3rd after being off for so long, i dont think theirs much between him and saxon for the derby
I would think Saxon Warrior will go straight to the Guineas if they choose that option.
Saxon Warrior had enough pace to be prominent early and he didn’t get much cover at all on a windy day because the pacemakers went off at a stupid pace way in front. In contrast, Roaring Lion got tons of cover right at the back and looked like he was going to perform a classic run after emerging from the slipstream to mow down the horse more exposed to the wind.
I don’t think The Pentagon has the pace of Saxon Warrior and at Epsom you need a horse who can travel well. Will Roaring Lion be suited by Epsom? If he is he is definitely a player.
No value at 7/2 Saxon Warrior now but surely Roaring Lion at 25/1 is better value for The Derby than The Pentagon at 10/1?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Personally id rather the pentagon at 10/1 than 25/1 roaring lion (wont be backing either)
And hypothetically if they met again in a month or so time id think the pentagon would be alot closer than the distance today potentially bettering him, really liked that run from the pentagon
Id be happy with your prices on saxon warrior, but as mrs obrien said after the race, the guineas could be for him!
Dont see why they would send saxon warrior straight to the guineas though, aiden would rather get a run into them all if he could, depends how they winter youd think, if nothing was amiss i think he will appear in a trial but who knows really..
Not sure if Roaring Lion would handle Epsom and lots of good horses such as Elarqam and Herculean still to consider for the Classics but think at 25/1 with Bet Victor and his experience on the Rowley Mile Roaring Lion (with the kinks ironed out) is an ideal candidate to win The 2000 Guineas.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...No value at 7/2 Saxon Warrior now but surely Roaring Lion at 25/1 is better value for The Derby than The Pentagon at 10/1?
If Roaring lion got outstayed today which it looked like I can’t see why he’s going to reverse the placings over a mile and a half. I can’t think of many derby winners who showed the pace he did, got outstayed over a mile and then went on to win the derby. Or any for that matter.
Dont see why they would send saxon warrior straight to the guineas though, aiden would rather get a run into them all if he could, depends how they winter youd think, if nothing was amiss i think he will appear in a trial but who knows really..
Just from memory I think the Guineas and Derby types Aidan has had have tended to go straight to the Guineas. The dedicated Derby sorts nearly always have a trial race and sometimes two.
Just in case I was imagining Aidan’s tendency not to give his Guineas horses a run in a trial, I checked the stats on his Guineas winners.
Interesting that EVERY one of his eight 2000 Guineas winners went straight to the race. Why would they buck that trend?
I am not keen on the notion of giving Group 1 winners a run in a trial anyway. It means dropping back in grade and I see little point in that. Maybe you could make a case for running a once raced horse, just for some extra experience. I would say the trials are more for horses to use as a stepping stone up the ladder, rather than as a fitness enhancement. Aidan has proven many times that he can get them fit first time up at the age of 3yo, it’s the first timers at 2yo who often need that first race.
I always wonder if John Gosden ever rues running Kingman in the trial. The colt thrashed Night Of Thunder in the trial, yet met his only ever defeat in the Guineas itself. We’ll never know of course but he handed the Hannon horse his own head on a silver salver in the Greenham but never confirmed it in the one that mattered.
We will get to see Kingman’s first runners next year and I hope he does well as a sire.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I recall Steve touting Saxon from very early doors – great call. Only saw the race finish while at Kelso and will watch again tomorrow but it seemed to me he didn’t half battle given his youth and inexperience.
Well done ham too and all other winners
Great stat steve i hadnt noticed that myself, maybe he will then, im confident he will be in the guineas anyway
A baby Roaring Lion
In honor of ROARING LION’S race today, we wanted to share one of the first photos taken of him. We can’t wait to see what his future holds! pic.twitter.com/DArmhecevO
— Taylor Made Farm (@TaylorMadeSales) October 28, 2017
A baby Roaring Lion
https://twitter.com/TaylorMadeSales/status/924305465311457280
Thanks for that lovely shot of baby Roaring Lion Botchy..he’s a handsome little chap and from that photo interesting to see how he has changed in his colour as he’s got older being described as roan grey.
No way disgraced yesterday against Saxon Warrior it was a pleasing result all round really as I think he looks tailor made to win one of the big classics next year, and hoping it will be the 2000 Guineas.
Also hoping that Nelson will pay him a big compliment at Saint Cloud this afternoon and win the Criterium.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Thanks for the kind words everyone.
Highly unusual for me to only have backed one horse for the Derby this season and I hope it pans out that he makes the race in one piece. Long way to go yet though.
In the aftermath John Gosden stated that there was no reason why Roaring Lion would not go for the 2000 next year. Aidan O’Brien also informed us that Ryan Moore is adamant that Saxon Warrior has the pace for a Guineas and the trainer expanded by saying that the colt could always start off in the Guineas on the way to Epsom.
That might liven up a Guineas where there is no outstanding candidate after Expert Eye’s flop in the Dewhurst.
I have backed Saxon Warrior at 50/1 for the Arc and am surprised to see 40/1 still available in a place and 33/1 in several places. Bet365 only go 14/1, which is skinny but surely at 40/1 Saxon Warrior has to be better value than Expert Eye at the same odds?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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