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Anything O’Brien sends it at will win.
All hail the all conquering borg. There is no resistance. If Saxon Warrior doesn’t win, the pentagon will win, and if the pentagon doesn’t win, one of the pacemakers will win.
It is useless trying to resist the borg. Independent thought is useless. His galileo breds are superior to the weak opposition. resistance is futile, and will be met with complete annihilation!
Signed,
commanding officer of the borg empire Botchy
Medical officer Sunspangled
Breeding officer MickeyJP
First engineer HamYeah, alright it’s incredibly possible that O’Brien will break the record here but there are a decent bunch of entries in there from other stables. I’ll keep my powder dry until final decs for this one but if it comes up soft then it’ll take a good one to better Chilean and I hear Gabr has been doing very well on the gallops at Newmarket so maybe there is hope to Klingon-to!!!
Anything O’Brien sends it at will win.
All hail the all conquering borg. There is no resistance. If Saxon Warrior doesn’t win, the pentagon will win, and if the pentagon doesn’t win, one of the pacemakers will win.
It is useless trying to resist the borg. Independent thought is useless. His galileo breds are superior to the weak opposition. resistance is futile, and will be met with complete annihilation!
Signed,
commanding officer of the borg empire Botchy
Medical officer Sunspangled
Breeding officer MickeyJP
First engineer HamHey, I wanted to be the Breeding Officer 🙁
I don’t think it’s a done deal. If it’s very soft, Verbal Dexterity might be hard to beat, the softer the better for him.
Anything O’Brien sends it at will win.
All hail the all conquering borg. There is no resistance. If Saxon Warrior doesn’t win, the pentagon will win, and if the pentagon doesn’t win, one of the pacemakers will win.
It is useless trying to resist the borg. Independent thought is useless. His galileo breds are superior to the weak opposition. resistance is futile, and will be met with complete annihilation!
Signed,
commanding officer of the borg empire Botchy
Medical officer Sunspangled
Breeding officer MickeyJP
First engineer HamHey, I wanted to be the Breeding Officer 🙁
I can upgrade you if you wear a short skirt
I don’t think it’s a done deal. If it’s very soft, Verbal Dexterity might be hard to beat, the softer the better for him.
It’s currently good to soft, good in places, and there’s very little rain forecast, and Doncaster drains very well. So it looks like good ground for Saturday.
I am on Saxon Warrior at 5/2. I expect Ryan Moore to be on board and if that is confirmed the unbeaten son of Deep Impact will shorten.
Aidan confirmed earlier that The Pentagon would also run, along with “Some others” from the 12 strong entries.
The Pentagon’s races haven’t worked out at all well though and I readily prefer Saxon Warrior for both the Racing Post Trophy and the Derby.
Verbal Dexterity simply ground Beckford down last time. The latter horse travelled better for a while but ran out of puff, allowing the Bolger horse to reverse earlier form in ready fashion. Beckford was dropped in trip next time and was a surprise favourite really but it was US Navy Flag who did the business, while the two highest rated in the race ran like drains.
I am not a Bolger fan and have had few regrets about that policy the past few seasons, so I will continue to oppose. Verbal Dexterity is yet to win at a mile and he will face stouter stayers than Beckford this time, most of them O’Brien runners. If Kew Gardens runs he represents form over 10F with a nice Zetland win in the bag. That sets a stamina standard that suggests a true stayer at a mile should win this. That’s not to say Verbal Dexterity won’t stay but it’s a factor at the odds.
The Pentagon made no show on debut but he didn’t half demolish them next time. He was much less impressive next time though and the form has not stacked up at all. Not seen for three months since, it is hard to believe that this was always the plan. I would have thought the Royal Lodge would have been a good stepping stone to this race but it never happened. I think he is shocking value at 9/4 JF with Bet365 and I’d be willing to bet them that he’ll go off a fair bit bigger than that. They look badly out of step, with 9/2 available in places, much more likely that he would go off those odds in my opinion.
Talking of the Royal Lodge, I had Nelson at 10/3 for that race ante-post and he went off 5/6 Fav on the day. However, once again, getting the odds was the easy part and he was worn down by Gosden’s Roaring Lion. With Nelson having beaten Kew Gardens 3 lengths and the latter horse easily landing the Zetland, plus other results along the way, you would have felt Nelson should have taken the world of beating but Roaring Lion got there to win by a neck. Roaring Lion ended up getting officially rated 112 in the aftermath, so the assessor has clearly felt Nelson ran exactly to his 110 rating. I expect Roaring Lion to be a contender here and would love it if BET365 would give me a match bet with The Pentagon based on their odds of 9/4 to Roaring Lion’s 7/1.
Paddy Power’s odds of 16/1 for Nelson himself suggests they don’t feel a rematch with Roaring Lion is on the cards. Other firms have Nelson as low as 8/1 (William Hill) and someone is clearly going to be way off one way or the other. I don’t fancy Nelson myself and just a slight doubt if the Royal Lodge really was him quite at his best.
Masar was a good winner for me earlier in the season but he couldn’t quite cut it in France, where he ran 3rd in the Lagardere. It was a good run though, just outstayed by Happily and the French horse Olmedo. Olmedo is favourite for the French Guineas as well and both colts seemed outstayed by Happily on the soft ground. The problem for Masar may be getting outstayed again.
Chilean won well last time but it was only a Listed race and the chances are pretty likely to be that he pulled away on the bottomless ground at Haydock. This is much tougher and I will oppose him on the basis of a potential anomaly in the form on bad ground.
Seahenge has split the bookies, with Paddypower 20/1 and Coral 10/1. He was third in the Dewhurst when Expert Eye flopped but I am not trusting that race myself. Mendelssohn splitting Seahenge and US Navy Flag looks suspicious to me and with obvious questions about Seahenge turning up lead me to reject Seahenge and Mendelssohn here.
The rest make less appeal so I will just close by pointing out the worst value in the race in my opinion and that is the quote of 10/1 for Godolphin’s Loxley with Skybet. Loxley deadheated in a class 4 novice race on debut. There were six runners and the horse is now going straight to a Group 1 just 13 days later. Loxley is rated 79 and I think it would be utter stupidity to ask the colt to take on horses 2 stone and more highly rated and some of those are not very exposed themselves. 10/1? that’s got to be the biggest load of bollocks since Henry Kissinger. Come on Skybet, get a grip on yourselves. Who is compiling the odds? Walter Mitty?
Anyway it is Saxon Warrior for me at 5/2. His last race is 2/2 in subsequent runs and he’s not exposed by any means. I hope to see him 6/4 Fav with Ryan up on Saturday.
I’ll lay The Pentagon and the joke bet is Loxley at 10/1 with Skybet.
I am hoping to see Saxon Warrior at 3/1 for the Derby after the race.
Good luck wherever your money sits.
Saxon Warrior 5/2
Derby Saxon Warrior 10/1 (Already on at rates 33/1 downwards)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Am I the only one who thinks this race is the most pathetic ‘Group 1’ of the season.
How can this race be a group 1 but the long distance cup at Ascot on champions day be a group 2?
Bonkers
Am I the only one who thinks this race is the most pathetic ‘Group 1’ of the season.
How can this race be a group 1 but the long distance cup at Ascot on champions day be a group 2?
Bonkers
The Long Distance Cup isn’t a Group 1 because the average rating for the first four finishers in the race was not 115 or higher over a three year period. There are certain requirements that must be met in order for a race to achieve Group 1 status, (although the European Pattern Committee can sidestep this at their own discretion, albeit rarely) and the Long Distance cup simply hasn’t met those requirements in recent years. In fact it was only upgraded to Group 2 status in 2014. Whether it will be upgraded when the European Pattern Committee next convenes I’m not sure, although it should be fairly easy to workout if you have the time and a calculator.
As for this year’s Racing Post Trophy, I don’t think it’s a pathetic Group 1 at all. In fact, I think it’s shaping up to be the strongest Juvenile Group 1 of the entire season, and if all the market principles turn up I imagine it will officially be too.
Am I the only one who thinks this race is the most pathetic ‘Group 1’ of the season.
How can this race be a group 1 but the long distance cup at Ascot on champions day be a group 2?
Bonkers
The Long Distance Cup isn’t a Group 1 because the average rating for the first four finishers in the race was not 115 or higher over a three year period. There are certain requirements that must be met in order for a race to achieve Group 1 status, (although the European Pattern Committee can sidestep this at their own discretion, albeit rarely) and the Long Distance cup simply hasn’t met those requirements in recent years. In fact it was only upgraded to Group 2 status in 2014. Whether it will be upgraded when the European Pattern Committee next convenes I’m not sure, although it should be fairly easy to workout if you have the time and a calculator.
As for this year’s Racing Post Trophy, I don’t think it’s a pathetic Group 1 at all. In fact, I think it’s shaping up to be the strongest Juvenile Group 1 of the entire season, and if all the market principles turn up I imagine it will officially be too.
Year on year, it’s a shocking race.
If this year is different, great. But the norm is that it’s a piss poor race
The National Stakes Verbal Dexterity won looks worse by miles.
4th Horse Coat Of Arms beaten Fav at Evens in a class 4 maiden when next seen. Lethal Steps was 5th and then was only 4th when favourite for a Listed Race next time. 6th horse Brother Bear was a dismal 7th of 10 when favourite for a Listed race next time.
Beckford was done in by the ground in the National Stakes and was beaten next time. Rostropovich won the Group 2 Futurity previously but that was by a short head from the (Still) maiden Coat Of Arms. The Futurity is probably the worst Group 2 this year.
I say the National Stakes is the Group 1 with the whiff of dung about it.
Anyhow, no matter how poor a race is, you still get paid if you pick the winner.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As for the race itself, I’m also going to side with Saxon Warrior at 5/2. Unless something goes bizarrely amiss, Ryan Moore will ride him and he should go off shorter than 5/2. As I said over on the 2 year old’s thread after he won, his performance in Naas left a big impression on me. I think he beat 3 very useful colts that day, Kew Gardens doing wonders for the form with his Zetland romp.
Saxon Warrior ran quite green that day, and he should be an improved horse for the experience. Using September as evidence, there’s no reason to suspect O’Brien can’t get these Deep Impact juveniles to keep on improving like the Galileo’s do.
The ground at Donny is currently Good to Soft, Good in places, and with limited showers forecast its possible Soft will be taken out of the description altogether, and it should definitely be no worse than it currently is. Saxon Warrior shaped like a horse who would prefer good ground on his debut win, like September, but he seemed to handle soft equally well.
Verbal Dexterity is a colt I really like, but like others here, it’s hard to have confidence in the Bolger yard going up against the O’Brien juggernaut. He has performed exceptionally well on soft surfaces up to now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean his best form will be restricted to soft surfaces, there isn’t enough evidence to say that definitively. In fact I think he has a rather low, straight action. The best ground he has ran on is Yielding, when he lost to Beckford, although the drop down to 6f was probably his undoing there rather than the going. I’m a big fan of the colt, and I’ve added him to my 28/1 Gustav Klimt bet for the Guineas, but O’Brien looks unstoppable at the moment and it can pay dividends to bank on that alone.
As far as I’m concerned it’s a two horse race between these two Bolger and O’Brien colts, The Pentagon’s form hasn’t worked out at all and he strikes me as a horse similar to Orderofthegarter, who recorded a wide margin success early in his career, before seeing his form slowly level off against stronger opposition. Nelson is a colt who I really like for the Derby, and have backed him at 33/1 accordingly, but Paddy Power – who seem to have an inside line with Ballydoyle runners – have him at 16/1 suggesting he’s a no-show. Roaring Lion might make up the Trifecta but I don’t think his form adds up to the two I’ve mentioned.
Saxon Warrior 5/2 is my main bet.
I’ve also done two doubles concerning Saxon Warrior and Verbal Dexterity:
Saxon Warrior to win the Racing Post Trophy and the Derby 35/1
Verbal Dexterity to win the Racing Post Trophy and the Guineas 74/1
But i think i will go with this one. Just for you 
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