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Am I the only one who thinks this race is the most pathetic ‘Group 1’ of the season.
How can this race be a group 1 but the long distance cup at Ascot on champions day be a group 2?
Bonkers
The Long Distance Cup isn’t a Group 1 because the average rating for the first four finishers in the race was not 115 or higher over a three year period. There are certain requirements that must be met in order for a race to achieve Group 1 status, (although the European Pattern Committee can sidestep this at their own discretion, albeit rarely) and the Long Distance cup simply hasn’t met those requirements in recent years. In fact it was only upgraded to Group 2 status in 2014. Whether it will be upgraded when the European Pattern Committee next convenes I’m not sure, although it should be fairly easy to workout if you have the time and a calculator.
As for this year’s Racing Post Trophy, I don’t think it’s a pathetic Group 1 at all. In fact, I think it’s shaping up to be the strongest Juvenile Group 1 of the entire season, and if all the market principles turn up I imagine it will officially be too.
Year on year, it’s a shocking race.
If this year is different, great. But the norm is that it’s a piss poor race
That may be so in your opinion MoM, but it is a Group 1 race because it meets the mathematical standards to be a Group 1 race, nothing more.
Nelson goes for the 10f G1 in France on the following day, along with Kew Gardens and Delano Roosevelt.
Saxon Warrior has the better form of O’Brien’s big two, but The Pentagon is obviously highly regarded by Ballydoyle, so I wouldn’t rule him out. Also, when Ryan was asked which 2yos had impressed him, he singled out The Pentagon and Happily. You might say that could be taken with a pinch of salt and he hadn’t ridden Saxon Warrior at the time, but Happily subsequently won two G1 races. I’ll wait to see who Ryan rides.
For some reason the past few years it has been won by average horses but I think it’s more to do with the top trainers not sending their best colts to the race. Aiden hasn’t sent his best since camelot and future champions day and the breeders Cup now take precedence. We could see a top horse on Saturday though. I hope the ground stays decent so we get a true result. I’d back either saxon warrior or the pentagon for the Derby now as their price will tumble if they win well. I’m sure verbal dexterity will put it up to them but unless we have a lot of rain I can’t see him winning.
The Beresford looks to be a very strong race which Saxon Warrior won. In third was Warm The Voice who Brendan Duke has been raving about all year as a top class horse. He was recently sold by Bolgers wife for big bucks to race in Hong Kong.
He must have a good line that Verbal Dexterity is a fair bit better than him and he also had the race in France to go for. Certainly think he will prove to be the best Miler in the race and Mr. Bolger will be getting offered Blank Cheques after the race.
Voleur mentioned getting a double with the Guineas, can anyone point me in the right direction please ?
Saxon Warrior obviously has a good chance but I feel this is a decent renewal of this race. The one I think is underestimated by the market, not sure if he’ll turn up or not is Roaring lion. Showed real battling qualities to win last time. Looked like he was going to win, then pulled himself up and looked sure to beat, and somehow pulled it out anyway. 3/3 and also trained by a master, what’s not to like. I’ll probably wait till NRNB though till getting involved as you are going to get a decent price whatever you choose to back in this field, given the quality on display.
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With PP
I’m taking on the AOB superteam managed by judge
with John Gosden’s Roaring Lion currently 7/1 Bet365 who shouldn’t be underestimated.This son of Kitten’s Joy is a tough little cookie and once again teamed up with Oisin Murphy he will fight his corner to the last.
I was there when he beat Nelson in the Royal Lodge on the Rowley Mile and he battled on furiously up the hill to hold off the challenge of Aiden’s Frankel colt who also put up a good performance but Roaring Lion had the edge over him finishing his race off really well running on and even with a little greeness showing as he jinked to the left under pressure he was in control and going on past the line.
It’s ridiculous that Coolmore have 12 out of the current 22 declarations for this race, Aiden throwing everything he has at breaking Bobby Frankel’s record in this race and nobody knowing who he will take out before the event.
Good luck if your trying to sort out which AOB horse will win but my fingers are crossed that this battling roan grey is ready to pounce and take the spoils home to John Gosden…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...As for the race itself, I’m also going to side with Saxon Warrior at 5/2. Unless something goes bizarrely amiss, Ryan Moore will ride him and he should go off shorter than 5/2. As I said over on the 2 year old’s thread after he won, his performance in Naas left a big impression on me. I think he beat 3 very useful colts that day, Kew Gardens doing wonders for the form with his Zetland romp.
Saxon Warrior ran quite green that day, and he should be an improved horse for the experience. Using September as evidence, there’s no reason to suspect O’Brien can’t get these Deep Impact juveniles to keep on improving like the Galileo’s do.
The ground at Donny is currently Good to Soft, Good in places, and with limited showers forecast its possible Soft will be taken out of the description altogether, and it should definitely be no worse than it currently is. Saxon Warrior shaped like a horse who would prefer good ground on his debut win, like September, but he seemed to handle soft equally well.
Verbal Dexterity is a colt I really like, but like others here, it’s hard to have confidence in the Bolger yard going up against the O’Brien juggernaut. He has performed exceptionally well on soft surfaces up to now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean his best form will be restricted to soft surfaces, there isn’t enough evidence to say that definitively. In fact I think he has a rather low, straight action. The best ground he has ran on is Yielding, when he lost to Beckford, although the drop down to 6f was probably his undoing there rather than the going. I’m a big fan of the colt, and I’ve added him to my 28/1 Gustav Klimt bet for the Guineas, but O’Brien looks unstoppable at the moment and it can pay dividends to bank on that alone.
As far as I’m concerned it’s a two horse race between these two Bolger and O’Brien colts, The Pentagon’s form hasn’t worked out at all and he strikes me as a horse similar to Orderofthegarter, who recorded a wide margin success early in his career, before seeing his form slowly level off against stronger opposition. Nelson is a colt who I really like for the Derby, and have backed him at 33/1 accordingly, but Paddy Power – who seem to have an inside line with Ballydoyle runners – have him at 16/1 suggesting he’s a no-show. Roaring Lion might make up the Trifecta but I don’t think his form adds up to the two I’ve mentioned.
Saxon Warrior 5/2 is my main bet.
I’ve also done two doubles concerning Saxon Warrior and Verbal Dexterity:
Saxon Warrior to win the Racing Post Trophy and the Derby 35/1
Verbal Dexterity to win the Racing Post Trophy and the Guineas 74/1
Hi Voleur, where did you get that price on the double for Saxon Warrior please? I wouldn’t mind a bit of that too
It seems like Godolphin will let Masar go to the Breeders Cup and are letting supplemented Loxley run here instead.
Sweet Jesus, how bad is that? All that expensive horseflesh and the best candidate they have is a Class 4 novice stakes dead-heater that they needed to supplement. That stinks the place out as a business model and they would not be working for me if that was all they could come up with for a Group 1 race that more or less closes the 2YO season. Even worse is the crappy odds offered on a horse rated 79, who needs to find about two and a half stone in a hurry.
For me, it’s hard to see Godolphin (Yet again) doing much in the Classics next year.
It’s like Coolmore are travelling along in a sleek convertible, while Godolphin try to catch up in an old jalopy.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To add calamity onto disaster for Godolphin, and Sheikh, he has been forced into an embarrassing backtrack over some case where some guy touched some other guys backside in a bar. You couldn’t make it up.
Totally agree with Jac re Roaring Lion. Was going to post something similar here earlier but internet at my hotel was too bad.
Don’t know if he’ll beat Saxon Warrior. But there’s probably not a huge amount between these runners. What I liked about Roaring lion is that he looked a class act and I also liked the way that he battled back last time, when it looked as if he had thrown the race away.
Btw I agree with MOM about this race in general, although doubt it applies to this year’s renewal, which is almost certain to be a high class two year old race, with O’brien chucking the kitchen sink at it.
Most racing post winners (camelot besides) have a dreadful record in the guineas. I recall Ibn Khaldun winning the race some time ago- a good mate of mine really fancied the horse to win the 2000 the next year, but I wasn’t sure, because his closing furlong seemed quite slow and didn’t back up the visual impression. His sectionals seemed someway behind Henrythenavigator and New approach and so it proved.
Most year’s I wouldn’t go for this double but the Guineas looks wide open this year. That leads me to wire in on a Saxon Warrior Guineas/Derby double at 66/1 for a bit of fun.
Verbal Dexterity is one of the leading lights for the 2000 Guineas at the moment but should Saxon Warrior win the Racing Post Trophy in good style, he could be damn near favourite for the Guineas and a hot favourite for the Derby. 66/1 will shrivel in that scenario.
Generally 2/1 and lower for the Racing Post Trophy at the moment, the colt could be pretty short if Ryan gets the leg up and several of the Ballydoyle entries renege.
It’s not often you get 66/1 on an outcome and I reckon there is potential value. For sure it could fall flat but at those odds it’s easy to shrug off. Rather that than wiring in on some short price cert that gets pumped.
Saxon Warrior Guineas/Derby 66/1 for a bit of sport.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ignore my last comment.
Just had a look at Saxon Warriors first run. Nothing is beating that.
A trip to Ocean Finance awaits
Good luck with Roaring Lion judge
I’m not one for talking about every horse in every race I prefer to nail my colours to just one horse if I can and like to go by horses that I have seen with my own eyes and these are almost always horses that have run at my local track Newmarket. Roaring Lion is one of those horses and although at first seeing him in the pre parade he didn’t immediately catch the eye if you look back at all his wins on video you will see that he has a quality about him a strong fighting spirit to get to the front and that’s what I look for and hope that that spirit will help him take on the likes of Saxon Warrior and carry him home on Saturday.Jac
good luck all LOL judge just seen you have deserted Roaring Lion now for The Warrior .. you are changing like the wind but make sure you maybe have a little each way or reverse forecast.
Wish you all the luck with him he will certainly take all the beating .Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...For all concerned the two doubles were special bets, placed through the Askpaddypower Twitter service. They were both placed a couple of weeks back, so I’m not sure what price you’ll get now. I imagine it will be worth taking regardless, because whoever wins on Saturday will be much shorter for both the Guineas and the Derby.
I haven’t had a bet yet Trip. Just weighing up the options. Change my mind every ten seconds
Regarding The Racing Post Trophy being “Rubbish”
2001 High Chaparral won the race and won the Derby the following year.
2004 Motivator won the race and won the Derby the following year.
2006 Authorised won the race and won the Derby the following year.
2011 Camelot won the race and won the Derby the following year.2013 winner Kingston Hill was runner up to Australia in the Derby and won the St Leger.
2009 Winner St Nicholas Abbey won a hat trick of Coronation Cups and landed other Group 1 races, including a Breeder’s Cup.
Not bad for “Rubbish” I would say.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
with John Gosden’s Roaring Lion currently 7/1 Bet365 who shouldn’t be underestimated.
good luck all 
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