[Yogi]

Clumsy? The second last….a tad, was going a proper gallop there and the ones behind were clumsy as couldn’t go the pace.

A big striding horse who will be better for a fence next season.

Without stating the obvious, good horse this. Have him for both races at decent odds. Whatever happens shaping up to be a cracker the Supreme.

[Yogi]

Hi Autumnal, although GLENLOE (entered this weekend) is the Elliott type for a touch, personally I can’t have it now at the age of 11. I think he is vulnerable to a younger horse.

GO ANOTHER ONE ran 6th in this last year off 142 (a very good run), he has gone up to 145 which means he will be top weight if he goes here, which will be a tough ask?

FLOUEUR has only run over fences twice, running nicely and under the radar. Has collateral form over fences that put him 10 lengths behind RUN WILD FRED (a 145 horse). High potential this horse over a fence (3rd and rated 140 in Martin Pipe over hurdles).The two races so far he has jumped really well, looks uncomplicated and strides out lovely for a big stamp of a horse. If he gets a handicap mark of around 140 I honestly think this will be fav come the day, if over 145 they may drop it down in distance to the plate.

16/1 ew with WH to win any race and I’m on

Good luck with your selections…….

[Yogi]

Supreme – SIR GERHARD 8/1 ew
DYSART DYNAMO 20/1 ew

Arkle – FERNY HOLLOW 8/1
BLUE LORD 25/1
APPRECIATE IT 6/1 XXX

Champion – HONEYSUCKLE 3/1
APPRECIATE IT 7/1

Mares Hurdle – TELLMESOMETHING GIRL 10/1 ew

NH Chase – VANILLER 12/1 ew

Ballymore – DYSART DYNAMO 12/1 ew
KILCRUIT 12/1 ew XX

Festival Novice Chase – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS 12-8-7-6/1 ew
AHOY SENOR 25/1 ew

Champion Chase – ENERGUMENE – 12/1 ew and 5/1
ENVOI ALLEN 18/1 ew

Cross Country – AJAS 12/1 ew

Champion Bumper – AMERICAN MIKE 5/1

Turners Novice Chase – Bob Olinger 5/2

Ryanair – ALLAHO 3/1
SAINT CALVADOS 14/1 ew

Stayers Hurdle – FLOORING PORTER 9/1 ew

Mares Novice Hurdle – GRANGEE 10/1 ew
NURSE SUSAN 16/1 ew

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle – DUFFLE COAT 25/1 ew (not qualified yet)

GOLD CUP – A PLUS TARD 6/1, 4/1
MINELLA INDO 6/1
AHOY SENOR 66/1 ew
MONKFISH 6/1 XX

Mares Chase – ELIMAY 8/1 ew

To win any race – FLOUEUR 16/1 ew

The best bet at the moment is a nice Lucky 15 –
FERNY 4/1
GALOPIN 8/1
OLINGER 2/1
ALLAHO 9/4

All have to get there and that’s half the battle

[Yogi]

I’ve been ploughing into GALOPIN all over the summer 12’s is the best I have all the way into 6/1, along with some doubles, trebles etc.

We shall see…..

Nice horse tho

[Yogi]

Did anyone else spot in GALOPIN DES CHAMPS impressive display at Leopardstown the 3rd being given a lovely (loose reigns) ride by D Russell for Mr Elliott, slowly, slowly….catchy monkey……FLOUEUR.

Very interesting as he has had two chases now and one more to get its mark over fences. 3rd in last years Martin Pipe. My one reservation is the trip. Kim Muir or the Plate?

To win any race is 16/1 ew with WH and I’ve gone for that.

FLOUEUR

[Yogi]

Yes BigG….Still have 25’s ew

We shall see but thought in last years novice it should run well in Welsh the following year. Stood by the winning post and DOMINATEUR only got going after the last

Fingers crossed and good luck to all

DOMINATEUR 25\1 ew

Saver on

PRIME VENTURE 14\1 ew

[Yogi]

Well done VTC, I have also added Melon before todays race at 66\1

I thought he was cantering in the Savills today and Patrick made the mistake of sauntering 3 clear, lonely or didn’t stay?

Whatever, he still beat a lot of Gold Cup types today for a non-stayer? Liked the winners attitude too….

[Yogi]

Firstly, well done to those who picked the winner.

On a personal note I was sure Melon would be on the bridle turning for home (Previous post), did he fail to stay? A lot of good horses outstayed by him today, but does anyone reckon Patrick should of held onto him instead of cantering 3 lengths clear? Surely he would of been much closer if he did.

All I do know three very good horses there and I have already bet Melon for Ryanair at 22/1
and a screwy bet at 66\1 for the Gold cup, Where ever he goes they will wait and wait next time….

[Yogi]

Captain CJ 12\1 ew, clearly progressive. Lovely chaser this, go onto better things, tough race this though.

Captain CJ 12’s ew

[Yogi]

Hopefully runs a good race now BigG, I’ve added Prime Venture at 14\1 ew earlier today as a saver.

Dominateur 25\1 ew
Prime Venture 14\1 ew

[Yogi]

MELON 20/1 ew…..Nowt between him and Samcro at the festival, good race that Marsh last year……taking a chance that he will be still on the bridle turning for home, but will he have the stamina?

MELON 20\1 ew (hopefully turns up as I see Mullins stepping this fella up in trip this season)

[Yogi]

Cracking Hunters at Down Royal this Thursday and ALONEAMOUNGMILLIONS entered against BILLAWAY (the current fav for Foxhunters), SOME MAN also entered here but Millions holds him (should do) from last season.

I’ve filled my boots at 20\1 ew for Foxhunters, hopefully we run well to cement that price and something to look forward to come the Friday after the Gold Cup…..

[Yogi]

DOMINATEUR at 25\1 for me is my main fancy.

Was there at my local track last year and this won the novice 3 mile and only got going there at the last and straight away I thought Welsh National next year. 2 wins a second and a third at Chepstow, will love the ground and if Native River runs it will get in as the bottom weight and will only carry will carry 9:13 for a young horse with potential.

NEWTIDE 25/1 ew from Bailey’s yard also interests me at this early stage (schooled with VINDICATION at Newbury) and he was running well until he came down. NEWTIDE blew the cobwebs away at Haydock off top weight and was clearly looked after in 3rd.

DOMINATEUR 25/1 ew
NEWTIDE 25/1 ew

[Yogi]

Well done all on Cloth Cap (Thrown in)

Hate to say it but I kept on about COPPERHEAD, always thought he is still getting over the RSA last season and I would wait until next season with him…..

Pleased with my long term pick AYE RIGHT at 40/1 and 25/1 ew

[Yogi]

Agreed, Ballymore all the way….

[Yogi]

Nov 5th post

“Hi Mike, correct. Based on value (in my eyes), I couldn’t understand why the prices were so far apart based on the RSA form between COPPERHEAD and AYE RIGHT. This is not the case now though after that run against NUTS WELL ( distance too short) and CYRNAME (top rated chaser on figures).

Purely on value at that early stage I just thought it was a crazy price at 40’s!

COPPERHEAD is a smashing horse but the thing that was niggling me was his run a Cheltenham, as he looked absolutely shattered when coming down. Reminding me of fellow Tizzard horses who started out very well then their form seemed to dip for a year or so then came right back to form – SLATE HOUSE was one of these horses that springs to mind, year before last he promised but was poor but right back to form the following year (last season). RESERVE TANK year before last was a talking horse but failed to deliver last season and he may bounce back this season?

I do like COPPERHEAD and may well prove me wrong but I can’t have him until he shows some form again.

Good luck to everyone who has done COPPERHEAD though….”

It really pains me to say about LOSTINTRANSLATION today, hopefully this is not another horse that has lost its way for a season? I really hope not….

I really hope I’m wrong with COPPERHEAD but until he shows some form again I can’t have him for this.

If he runs well the Welsh maybe an option?

[Yogi]

I honestly think you can’t take much out of that. What did we learn from a tactically slow run race?

1. Mark Walsh didn’t have the best of rides getting boxed in at the critical time of the race (fact).
2. ABACADABRAS is undoubtedly very good but does seem to have his own ideas about the game, flicking his ears and idling?
3. SAINT ROI proving he is much better than a handicapper and needs a stronger gallop (which he will get in the champion) and is a strong finisher.
4. JASON THE MILITANT is an improver or extremely flattered by his finishing position?

Interestingly the times from the 4th last for BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP race (2 mile 2 furlongs) and FURY ROAD (over 2 mile 6 furlongs) were both exactly 3 seconds quicker than the Morgina over the last 4 hurdles that was run just over 2 miles.

Conclusion:

A tactically slow race that didn’t tell me nowt. I’m holding judgement on all horses in that race and would not be surprised if both the front two are bang there come the final furlong in the Champion.

…..And FURY ROAD is quite good

[Author]

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