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<br>sorry dario but whilst maurice is right the form will hold up, it normally does in this race, it wasnt a top class field or tote by any means top rated this year ran of 142 last year top rated was 156
ran a good race copeland and looked impressive but not the same form as landing light last year and rememeber he was well behind landing light then.
<br>esc<br>one little point whilst not disagreeing with your outline you say
the gold cup was poor that year with llt winning it going away
with fp a non stayer in 2nd was llt actually going away or was fp slowing down and with lake kariba ( a non stayer) in 5th place surely theremust be a little doubt as to the value of this form especially as in this years contest there will be at least four or five horses with ability that will not have trouble staying the trip.
rm i am one of many whom think llt was in some way lucky that day nick dundee fell but in his next year when winning at sandown the pillar chase and the gold cup i agree he should have been given more credit.
<br>hi esc
fair point re the down royal race , although perhaps he goes better fresh than fp and as rm points out he does have a very good record at chelt 3 from 3. he cannot be left out but to me the wincanton race told us nothing he had the run of the race and although u are correct about the time being above average one has to remember most past winners of the race were average or below average horses so the times would be slower..
i cannot disagree with you he beat fp senseless as fp dosnt stay but he still at the end of the day he finished 2nd which must cause some doubts as this year there are 3 or 4 good horses that will not fail through lack of stamina (only that they are not good enough)
he is no doubt to some extent the horse to beat but his injury does cause worries and the fact that most of the field this time are stayers he may find himself in a different race so to say.
it may not be the best gc of the decade but i must say it appears the most interesting with four of five horses that a genuine case can be made for .
esc
re llt barring the fact he has still in my mind got to prove he is as good as he was the wincanton race being poor and the gc will put more pressure on his tendons ( he maytherefore save a bit for himself)
one question if fp is a non stayer as many others were in that race (lake kariba for example) do you think there is any chance of llt being flattered in his last win ie it was fp stopping as much as he was accelaterting which made him look good.
the field is competitive this year with a decent bunch as you say but at least this year stamina will not be a problem for many of them. so it may be a different ball game to the one that llt won
llt is a good horse with a good trainer so maybe i am be to critical but i feel that even with a fit llt this years race will be very different to the last gc.
the jockey bookings for marlborough/bacchanal may be interesting allthough i believe ogden has 2nd claim on fitz so it may not be jockey choice on fitzs part
<br>maybe so maurice but he will improve a little and he will definitly stay.
from your list i would have serious concerns
best mate – he wont stay the trip especially if there is cut in the ground
smb if he can stay on his feet he needs small fields of out of form horses nowdays not sure what ground nicholls claims he like now but would think he has much ground to make up on llt
llt- beat a poor field last time still has much to prove
lord noellie ran a very good race at newbury but am beginningt o worry about his actual win record
marlborough on fast ground would be interesting
<br>johhny boy
i would not think baccanals chance is dependent on soft going as mh points out he has grp1 form on g/f he does need a stamina test which he will get i must admit for him i would prefer the word "firm" not to appear in going description but up to good ground i wouldnt be worried.
re llt he still to my mind has to prove himself at this level (the wincanton race was poor) it can also be said that horses that have had leg trouble dont always jump the same as they did before.
and heres a question when llt won the gc it looked quite impressive but was he actually quickening or was the field of non stayers slowing down???
<br>i would doubt very much if aob is lying and most of these rumours are probably missing the mark i believe isty will turn up on the day and will probably run a good race but i believe that he will finsih 2nd to landing light
<br>sunny
no need to apologize i guessed u misunderstood me.
i agree with your summaries except for marlborough if the word "firm" appears in the going description his chances will improve very much.
about bacchanals jumping right it is of some concern but it was noticable on the last circuit hius jumping improved very much i think with work from connections and the faster pace will help him.
his jumping in the bula at times left a bit to be desired but in the stayers was much better the same i think will happen again.
yes i agree 6/1 is a price worth taking
regards
nb well done with copeland i hope u waited for him to drift before backing him
<br>thanks for the compliment but sunny whom or how many on the list would u back to beat bacchanal in the gc.
i can think of 2 dangers marlborough and llt barring them i think bacchanal has a clear chance
<br> impressed or not heres a list of horse whom will not be finishing in front of bacchanal
best mate<br>shooting light<br>behrajan<br>alexander banquet<br>florida pearl<br>whats up boys<br>shotgun willy
<br> i agree with sunny he didnt jump to well the first circuit but when the pace quickened on the 2nd circuit his jumping improved.
quite impressed and as long as ground dosnt turn fast he has a very good chance if ground turns fast then marlborough will have a big chance.
i think m fiztgerald /henderson is a good bet to win the gc this year
jjumps
the stat is fairly consistent with the stats for 10 year olds at the festival in general and for stats of 10 year olds in 2m grp 1 races ie younger horses nearly always get to the post first.
<br>if you look at the stats for 10 year olds as a whole over the whole chelt fixture they still dont make good reading
and isty wont lose the ch becuase of a stat but the stat will show that younger horses by large have a far greater chance. and that age catches up with everyone
put it another way how many 10 year old ex flat horses can u name as group 1 winners
mh u may have a point re pre 1970 but the stats after dont make good reading and most of the horses using the ch as a stepping stone to chasing did not race on the flat as a 2/3/4 year old.
i personally would like very much to see isty get a 4th win and make history he was robbed last year by f&m and that may be the worst bad luck story for some time
<br>mh<br>balydoyle is certainly not a tom tate. tom tate sole ability as a trainer is his relationship to the dickensons without that he would be a stable lad
if i recall sea pigeon won as a two year old ridden by l piggot trained by j tree
<br>bilbao to me is nowhere near good enough to win in march and whilst beating her at kempton is not the greatest form in the world given good ground and the uphill finish i think landing light will improve and i have backed him to win.
i think it is a 2 horse race myself as i have doubts about valirimix in large fields on good ground i know he has strengthened up but his jumping is not what it should be at times and a 2 mile slog at newbury is to me not the ideal preperation.
i wouldnt discount isty on rumours alone as there have always been rumours about him every year i would have been more happy though if had had a run in the aig first though.
his form last year in the aig and even wehn he fell the second time he was cantering show in my opinion he was no back number then and neednt be now .
and one stat of interest over 5 years 11 runners aged io+ have competed in hurdles over 2m at chelt the record splits down to 0/9 in handicaps and 1/2 in condition races so there is some encouragment there against the stat for 10 yrs old in the ch
i was a fan as well luke but i was hoping he would go novice chasing this year
<br>the prices on offer are often more to do with the pipe /mccoy factor than the actual ability of the nag
classisified to me looks a dodgy favorite
<br>interesting debate , allthough i have not joined in as yet, basically i prefer to bet on a selective basis in probably a similar way to esc.
as a question to tooting or any of the other value bettors would it be fair to say that the more bets you find as u are working on percentages the more chance you have of winning whereas to escorial working solely from the form book the more selective he is the more chance he has of winning
just a thought
