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I disagree that it is a tired debate. If there is a false favourite for any race surely it is worth grasping that and making a sensible betting strategy accordingly.
If you just want to watch the race and hope he wins good luck to you.
I for one have backed Landing Light and may back another on the day, but for sure I’ll be cheering Istabraq on.<br>
Come the 12th of March , I intend on being right in the action as the winner as led in for the fifth time. Jesus I might even shed a tear :o  , forget about the pocket my heart rules on this one. :biggrin: <br>
(Edited by Gearoid VI at 4:23 pm on Feb. 6, 2002)
On the racing Post site , looks like there are a lot of big hearted day dreaming punters with Hills. Isty heavily backed from 9/4 – 7/4.
Steve, this is indeed a very very tired debate. The same points are being made over and over again ad nauseum, and it looks like no-one’s ready to stop! There’s another thread going strong in the forum, just picking over the same old points.
Here we have an uneasy favourite, and the reasons are there for all to see. Forget the stats about 10 year olds; trying to bottle Istabraq into some statistical "norm" fails to take into account the relative ability of all those other 10 year olds. Of course younger horses tend to win it. Of course he’ll have to be special to pull it off. And we know he’s special. Hatton’s Grace and Sea Pigeon were special too, "late maturing" or not.
Tell us something we don’t already know.
The Champion is a race I’m happy to watch without a punt.
Thanks for the stats update Steve very interesting 6 year olds obviously have the age on those figures but 8 year olds fare better than 7 so to say older is worse does not really hold water.
The other thing I note is should Istabraq win this year 10 year olds suddenly go from having the worst record to the best in one race !!
I think this is all hype and guess work. Stats can prove anything. The important statistic will be if Isty turns up on the day. I for one could not back against that.
No pleasure in that!
If Istabraq runs it should win. Sad day otherwise.<br>
another thing not factored in the stats is that for at least thirty years and possibly up to Persian War, the hurdling was seen as a stepping stone to steeplechasing, and all the champion hurdel do was show a potential champion chaser or gold cup for the future. The only ten year old’s going for the race pre 1970 – underestimation ?? – were failed chasers that still had ability.
<br>if you look at the stats for 10 year olds as a whole over the whole chelt fixture they still dont make good reading
and isty wont lose the ch becuase of a stat but the stat will show that younger horses by large have a far greater chance. and that age catches up with everyone
put it another way how many 10 year old ex flat horses can u name as group 1 winners
mh u may have a point re pre 1970 but the stats after dont make good reading and most of the horses using the ch as a stepping stone to chasing did not race on the flat as a 2/3/4 year old.
i personally would like very much to see isty get a 4th win and make history he was robbed last year by f&m and that may be the worst bad luck story for some time
MH – yes, the actual stats do not say "10yo’s are now chasing and not hurdling" etc but it is an interpretation of the stats that can be most important.
That stats tell us that not many 10yo’s RUN in the Champion. We can say that this is because they are chasing instead, and i believe that spot on. The stats are definately helpful and a good guide.
I think all the rumours surrounding Istabraq are unfair and he is the best horse in the field on paper. I don’t know if he’ll win or not yet because i’ve not made my choice but i’ll continue to stick up for him when people discuss his defeat of Bust Out. <br>
I’m afraid that the people who say that stats don’t matter are burying their heads in the sand. But I am always open to whether a statistic is significant or not. I would suggest this one is.
Four horses of tremendous calibre failed to achieve a fourth win.
Hatton’s Grace finished fifth when attempting a fourth win, Sir Ken fourth when attempting to do the same. Persian War (who has the best record) made second place and See You Then came last.
As many point out this in effect is Istabraq’s fifth go, as he was cheated out of it last year when he appeared to have a fairly straightforward task.
The thing is, is that he is facing this year possibly the strongest field he has come up against at the very time he is least equipped to deal with it. It will be a monumental achievement if he manages it. We should not expect it of the horse, however, and he is certainly a false favourite. The only thing tired about this is apparently the horse itself.
The one thing he has going for him is Aidan O’Brien who managed to galvinise scintillating performances out of Theatreworld when apparently out of form. Let us hope he can do something similar for Istabraq – but the odds are stacked against it.
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I have given the stats on the age of the CH winner some thought and now believe they do not lean against Istabraq at all.
As I said on another thread the secret with stats is understanding them it is only then that they become really usefull. Firstly we have to consider the race the CH is in essence a race to be won by the best hurdler in that season. Think about that carefully and the reason for the lack of 10 year old winners is fairly obvious. In essence hurdlers are likely to be aimed at this race from age 6 or 7 onwards any horse who is still hurdling at 10 years old and has still not won the CH or revealed itself as a top class multi GRADE 1 winner is not going to win the CH. So when we come to consider this stat in relation to Istabraq the flaw is obvious he has already won 3 CH’s which could arguably have been 4 so the lack of 10 year old winners does not really weigh too heavily against him.
jjumps
the stat is fairly consistent with the stats for 10 year olds at the festival in general and for stats of 10 year olds in 2m grp 1 races ie younger horses nearly always get to the post first.
Steve -the See You Then analogy is a red herring.SYT was actually retired before attempting a comeback.
Steve M, I don’t see anyone on here saying that stats don’t matter. What matters is how you manipulate the stats to arrive at your conclusions.
You have made a compelling case against the champ, and used stats to back this up. And everything you say is perfectly vaild, and indeed reflected in the market (this time last year he was big odds-on).
But you can also use stats to make a plausible case for the champ. His track record round Prestbury Park, for example.
Anyway, just a few weeks now before we are put out of our misery…
Hi Luke,
I was rather under that impression as well. He didn’t defend in 1988 as he was pulled up in the Kingwell Hurdle prior to the Champion and retired (when 8)
But John Randall/Tony Morris’s book states he finished last behind Kribensis in 1990 (he would have been 10 by then as he won at 5-7). So I assumed he must have come back into training for another crack.
I must admit I don’t remember him running in 1990 and have been unable to get a copy of the full result to check. I do remember Kribensis winning however, as as usual I was there and am sure I would have had some memory of SYT trailing in last. So I am inclined to believe you are probably right.
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